What is your Expectancy ?

[VJAY]

Possible for you post calculations excel formulas about that image

I got this excel sheet from web
Need to understand where it pull data to Analysis sheet from which row and column of data sheet
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8bmpog47igoe9y9/pl-sheet.xlsx?dl=0

Dear snake head,
bpr posted excell sheet ...if still you want my one let me know...though I don't know much about calculations

 

[bpr]

anybody used the excel... post your expectancy

 

[Snake.Head]

anybody used the excel... post your expectancy

Last month 0.39
Current month june 0.80

 

[headstrong007]

Hi, bpr,
Suggestion, to know real-time expectancy, create another sheet with an extra column for average breakeven point for every trade. Then we can calculate real life profit loss on same excel sheet.

Say for Reliance Future average breakeven around Rs 0.16.
So we must deduct that cost for 45 trades from below.

Anyway below example from my real-time chart according to my price action trading setup.
45 trades generated from 45 days of trading. NO TRADE SKIPPED.
Script RELIANCE.

Below performance without brokerage and other costs. Approx Rs 7540 for 45 trades.

Cumulative profit after 45 trades as per excel 214200 without that 7540 above cost.

Hope this helps.

THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO CATCH THE JACKPOT TRADES [RIDE ON PROFITS] WITH MINIMUM STOP LOSS, SO THE CUMULATIVE RISK REWARD IS VERY HIGH AFTER 40-50 TRADES.

Happy Trading.
Cheers.

 

[bpr]

Last month 0.39
Current month june 0.80

did you have any past past records ?
Did you see any correlations or all random ?
Post the Yellow box if possible.

 

[bpr]

Hi, bpr,
Suggestion, to know real-time expectancy, create another sheet with an extra column for average breakeven point for every trade. Then we can calculate real life profit loss on same excel sheet.

Say for Reliance Future average breakeven around Rs 0.16.
So we must deduct that cost for 45 trades from below.

Anyway below example from my real-time chart according to my price action trading setup.
45 trades generated from 45 days of trading. NO TRADE SKIPPED.
Script RELIANCE.

Below performance without brokerage and other costs. Approx Rs 7540 for 45 trades.

Cumulative profit after 45 trades as per excel 214200 without that 7540 above cost.

View attachment 25985


Hope this helps.

THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO CATCH THE JACKPOT TRADES [RIDE ON PROFITS] WITH MINIMUM STOP LOSS, SO THE CUMULATIVE RISK REWARD IS VERY HIGH AFTER 40-50 TRADES.

Happy Trading.
Cheers.

don't worry about cost of the trade. That is not the focus here. Generally you have to keep in mind as cost is not included even if you have a expectancy of say 0.2 you may be still in loss or break even. Theoretically you should be profitable above 0 but practically because of cost you have to do at least Expectancty 0.15 to 0.2 to see some money.(My analysis)

As you want to look for correlation of a particular system to establish whether the Expectancy can be relied upon it is better to not include cost here.

the main point is if Expectancy is consistent with this system.
Can you backtest this with say another Scrip and validate the 1:6 and 64% win ratio.
Or if you have enough data for Reliance ...divide the data in 2 chunks and test you should have similar results.

you can post the yellow box only.

 

[Snake.Head]

did you have any past past records ?
Did you see any correlations or all random ?
Post the Yellow box if possible.

I add that formula to my trading Journal and that Expectancty is with all cost added {Brokerage and all tax}

 

[bpr]

I add that formula to my trading Journal and that Expectancty is with all cost added {Brokerage and all tax}

my recommendation not to add cost when calculating expectancy as it can skew it a bit. But depending on how many trades it may or may not impact much

 

[Snake.Head]

my recommendation not to add cost when calculating expectancy as it can skew it a bit. But depending on how many trades it may or may not impact much

Oh then will check with your file later
Will update by month end

 

[headstrong007]

don't worry about cost of the trade. That is not the focus here. Generally you have to keep in mind as cost is not included even if you have a expectancy of say 0.2 you may be still in loss or break even. Theoretically you should be profitable above 0 but practically because of cost you have to do at least Expectancty 0.15 to 0.2 to see some money.(My analysis)

As you want to look for correlation of a particular system to establish whether the Expectancy can be relied upon it is better to not include cost here.

the main point is if Expectancy is consistent with this system.
Can you backtest this with say another Scrip and validate the 1:6 and 64% win ratio.
Or if you have enough data for Reliance ...divide the data in 2 chunks and test you should have similar results.

you can post the yellow box only.

I know most traders don't want 'cost of trade' input so, I said just add another sheet for those like me who can use it.
Don't change your calculation. Just add another sheet with another column like 'Qty' where we can put 'breakeven/cost of trade'. These will be helpful.

**********
About the backtest, I select trending(from EOD/WEEKLY charts) stock for trading.
As the system is trend following, the performance will reduce if stock in the long-range bound period.

Backtested Reliance from approx April 1st to mid of May 2018 approx 45 calendar days(not trading days. As Reliance moved from 890 to 1000 in that time the performance is high. If we calculate it for 2 months and 15 day (till today EOD) even the performance will be better as the stock is still giving bigger moves. But the performance may reduce with other stock.

It's better to test with your stocks. (Whats your favorite stock, Tata Steel?)
Name your 1-2 stocks, I'll post the result (in weekend). Choose any liquid stock at least over Rs 200 price.