The longer the base the bigger the BO. Why?

#11
I think conviction is dangerous in trading. It can interfere with what you need to do, and to accept when trade is wrong/not working ( even if a trade works just after you exit). "Strong opinion, loosely held" is perhaps what you can call as conviction in trading. Does not mean get out at first sign of trouble, just that you need to follow your tested plan and not let conviction get in your way.

Only conviction you can have is that after a decent sample of trades your equity curve will likely move up within some estimated dd - and if it does not - then at some point need to consider if something is changing. On any single trade, or small group of trades - i have absolutely no idea what will happen. Markets are chaotic with large number of participants.

You don't have to follow. Simply form your ideas and test them. Take the winners - the losers and costs and slippages.
So ". If the Price touched this Support level for the 3rd time and if some other conditions are met, then it will very likely breach the Support)." is fine and a testable idea, but you will still have a decent % of of failed trades.

I have not read as much, i have not even read Magee and likely wont. My path was in moving from some blogs to traderji + misc sources, none of which worked.
But finally read Adam Grimes blog and then 1st book and a lot more and that has been enough. Right now, i am busy in my own work so have not done focused study of other authors, only made a list of people whose podcasts sounded interesting. But Grimes is highly recommended. Blog is free to read, so good way to decide.
Thanks. Yeah Grimes seems a good ref. I am looking for more such refs..

Also I feel words mean different things to different people. So, to me Conviction does not mean what it means to you. I am a big follower of SOLH approach. It came from the company HP I think... So basically no part of what you mentioned falls outside my meaning of Conviction... May be I should use a different word then (Courage?)..
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#12
Thanks. Yeah Grimes seems a good ref. I am looking for more such refs..

Also I feel words mean different things to different people. So, to me Conviction does not mean what it means to you. I am a big follower of SOLH approach. It came from the company HP I think... So basically no part of what you mentioned falls outside my meaning of Conviction... May be I should use a different word then (Courage?)..
Yeah i misread a bit and then edited my reply a bit.
 
#13
Yeah i misread a bit and then edited my reply a bit.
But your point about conviction is a good one. So, though I already follow what u r saying, but I still need to find a proper replacement word for Conviction, so that your nuance can get captured..

So perhaps a term that combines: Conviction/Courage + SOLH..

I will get back
 
#14
But your point about conviction is a good one. So, though I already follow what u r saying, but I still need to find a proper replacement word for Conviction, so that your nuance can get captured..

So perhaps a term that combines: Conviction/Courage + SOLH..

I will get back
OK so I am clear now. Conviction to me means: Ability to act on your judgment.

So Conviction is separate from Judgment.

Thanks for raising your point earlier, due to which I am now clearer in my articulation!

Wrote a blog just now on this topic: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/conviction-being-separate-from-judgment-saurabh-agarwal/
 
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