start of a equity trader in indian market

[oilman5]

chapter9
..............
rsi as an indicator...........
learn when to use as contrarian tool

 

[oilman5]

chapter10
.............
chart pattern recognisation.........
it helps to pull the trigger easily........however no method is infalliable
.......bullish pattern
bearish pattern......
continuation vs reversal pattern
...use pattern recognisation software.........for throwing away subjectivity....and scanner

 

[oilman5]

last chapter
..................
weekly support resistance .........another good tool.
...........
market profile useful as a trader.

 

[newbee]

Hello oilman

after the last chapter, ....

practice ....

or screen time as jess would put it....

lots of it ...

Thanks
nb
___________________________________
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE, NOT WHAT YOU THINK

 

[oilman5]

so being in my journey from amateur.......to beginner.......a consistent earning of last 6yr i dare to join as semipro .......2008-2009.and then if being lucky and GOD allows i shall join as pro.mean while, what i earn from trading i spend 10-20%consistently to learn better trading
and purchase books.........some of my notes i already write conclusively.recently i try again to learn fa.......by joining financial mba.
however i find many a professional course taken .........r more helpful as a trader.......infact
my highest return days r.........1991-92.....a fool's paradise.presently i plan an experiment of 25-30%return from market..on annual basis.
some course idea[not the free bees available].......i shall mention which may be helpful for different level learner
yr2002.........cbot course.......concept of market profile....trend non trend
yr2002-03.......tradingmarkets.com......swing trading and positional trading
2005...angel ta seminar
2005 ..swing trade...
2005...trend trade
2005...picking top and bottom
2005..metastock programming dvd
2005...dvd on day trading
2005....cd on swing by landry
2005..steve nison dvd on candlestick
2005....intraday tactics....jeff cooper
2005...trend-dynamics course 5 volume.......[best one i believe]
2005......cd from moneycontrol
2006.........ta cd and system design
2006....comment by larry williams
2006.....pattern trading plug in for metastock
2006.........mark boucher .....10week course
2007.......power trading concept......logical trade
2007 .......trading academy ...course for pro
2007......swing trading bill paolo
2007.......developing a trading strategy.......van tharp[old]
2007.......vasudev......trademechanics on relative strength
......................
apart from this many a free lecture........trade analysis
............
the last one i give .......today afternoon brief.i am commenting on them as i find personally useful.........yr wise when i have taken mentioned..............apart from them numerous trial and error ......i go through .........r useless
.............some observation .....
i am a poor option/future trader..........-return
a developed sense on turning pt........
i someway follow rel strength comparison........though psychologically find dificulty in entering days high.......due to numerous previous loss.
at swing pt reversal i can enter in known stock.
.......an entry of 5lakh value affect me........upto 3lakh good judgement observe.......
around 1lakh.........its easy to handle multi position
i hate leverage,also when stoploss hit........angry about me

 

[oilman5]

some of the books/free course/idea i find useful in someway or other........i shall mention
..........................................................................................................................
1. trend trading
2.4trading mistake in future market
3.chess and its concept
4.nlp concept
5.trading system
6.auction idea
7. strategy of a trade
8. turtle
9. jeff cooper
10. demark
11.linda
12.joe ross
13.ari kiev
14.gann
15.pristine.com
16.mentoring
17.core trading
18.effective day trading
19.short term trade
20.swing trade
21.ta
22.speculation
23.pattern
24.tony oz
25.learn flawless trading execution
26.dr bill william and chaos
27.probability
28.wyckoff
29.trading as a business
30.demand/supply
31.financial risk study
32. metastock
33.advance get
34.dynamic trading
35.omnitrader
36.fibonacci
37.candlestick
38.van tharp
39.valueline
40.trade plan
41.problem in trading
42.dr elder
43. way to trade..........a good one
44.toby crabel
45.volatility
46.mm[money management]
47.momentum
48.trading on volume
49.jessi livermore
50.sector trading
51.bear market course
52.break out
53.j. hurst
54. mechanical trade system
55.mark doglous
56. trade journal
57. bird watching in lion's country
58.emotion free trading
59.wave concept
60.bernstein
61.bollinger band
62.farley on swing
63. fa
64. turning pt concept
65. divergence study
66.float analysis
67.contrarian investment
68. news play
..................................................
all of them have some contribution .........to me as a trader

 

[oilman5]

some idea i put forward.........though known to all traders......old wine in new bottle
.................................................................................................................
with ur permission i shall write here.
stock picking is an art...an experience hand can do it.
fundamental data gives the potential of future betterment.for a different industry ballgame is different...futuristic business up has to be seen in light of profitability.
so some idea...on a sector.
hospitality and tourism ....on hotel.
theme of cram...export
banking...rate of interest...npa
............
next comes ta...its the reflection of price......what present traders r doing..
how far they r bullish?
here most traders make mistake........they presuppose to guess..[hoping accurately...forgetting its a probalistic model]
its only DIRECTION CAN BE PREDICTED. not the target...
judgement must be for continuation[trend]..or reversal[mean reversion]
various tool r used to do same...some of them has superior guessing value.
hence for target...sar is better.
initial plan must be based on low risk strategy...and what works on present market condition.
risk analysis must be done...before entry.
ur news letter ...tradersedgeindia very helpful...
as a trader ur plan is short with trend bias ...hence relative strength plays imp role in stock scanning...
as price reflects all known event....we should spend money to get unknown news...which may affect price
or otherway...we must study reflection of news on price......example.ongc result bad..price holding 910..its moving up rs5/- on monday...opens rs 7/- up on tuesday..holding..by 1300hr..it crosses days open...hence promise higher up...soon break imp weekly pivot 923..and hold 928-929...hence a promising up play,...for all good trader.
.........next factor...how u close a trade...and what u learnt from a trade.
its those analysis makes u a mature trader

 

[oilman5]

i continue
..since u have asked i write something on daytrading...though it has influence on stock trading
THESE R HARD CORE FACT BASED ON OBSERVATION OF MARKET FOR LAST 6YR
.................................................. .................................................. .....
AUCTION CONCEPT IS VERY IMP FOR TRADING, NEGOTION OF BUYER AND SELLER ..A VALUE ZONE,HIGHER UNJUSTIFIED A SELL PT,....LOWER AGAIN UNJUSTIFIED BUY PT.
...FOR A DAYTRADER LAST 0.5HR..TIME TO CLOSE TRADE[IRRESPECTIVE OF PROFIT/LOSS]
PROFESSIONAL MONEY MANAGER WHO BELIEVES IN TA LOOK FROM LONGER TIME WEEK/MONTH.....START BUY THEN AS THEY HAVE MONEYPOWER.
normally we all lower price ....use for buy oppurtunity and use higher price zone for profit booking oppurtunity.
in normal condition market stay at top or bottom a little .and stabilise at price equilibrium pt
IF WE LOOK FROM LONGER TIMEFRAME WE HAVE BETTER ANALYSIS TO TRADE
IMBALANCE OF PRICE IS OPPURTUNITY
HENCE PRICE TRY TO REACH QUICKLY TO BALANCE.
NOW TIME TO REACH THAT...IS OPPURTUNITY
WE must study behavior of market to understand it.
define ;RANGE DEVELOPMENT
NORMAL DAY
TREND DAY.....UP AND DOWN [nothing told consider up to put sp idea]
VOLATILE DAY
................
RANGE HELPS TO DEFINE DAY IN TIME
...............
CONCEPT OF CONTROL ; BUYER $ SELLER
................
PRICE NORMALLY GREED DRIVEN IS UP
PRICE UNDER CONTROL OF FEAR...DOWN TREND
MARKET MOVES FROM IMBALANCE TO BALANCE
THROUGH PRICE EXTREME/RANGE EXPANSION OR VALUE AREA..SLOW MOVE
..............
LONGTERM TRADER WATCH FOR OPPURTUNITY, SEARCH FOR A PRINT[REPEATATIVE TENDENCY OF EDGE 'GIANT FOOTPRINT'
WHEN LARGE BUYERS COME PRICE MOVE UP AND WHEN BIG SELLORDER COMES PRICE FALL DOWN.
IN UPMOVES LIKE RESPONSES COME FROM GREED DRIVEN OBSERVER
..................
HENCE MARKET BEHAVIOR STUDY FURTHER BREAK UP 2SUBTLE ISSUE
1]IMBALANCED DIRECTIONAL MOVE
2]BALANCED ROTATION OF MONEY IN CYCLE /FOR SECTOR ALSO DUE TO CONSTANT CHANGE OF PARTICIPANTS PSYCHOLOGY[GREED AND FEAR]
OPENION...Longterm openion of price reflects true value of stock
current value=todays value[all known and unknown openion hidden in price]
its imbalance we search for.....in weekly chart we see value shifting higher to see oppurtunity of longterm buy
range extension[predictive] shows biasness of close,normally in a range day DAYTRADER do active participation[whether earn or lose] at day top and at day bottom
now continuity of price at extension towards end of session provide biasness of watcher[better skilled trader] to put money for future oppurtunity to earn with trend[continuation]
AT CLOSE TIME HIGHER PRICE BUYING ACTIVITY SUGGEST LONG TIME STRONG HAND BUYER ACTIVE [OPPURTUNITY EXISTS TO EARN]
HENCE STUDY FOR OPPURTUNITY TO CONTINUATION OF IMBALANCE IS IMP WITH THE HELP OF 3 TOOL......PRICE,VALUE AND MARKET ACTIVITY
...........
Analysis shall continue in further post
................
wide expansion is good for daytrade.....from range to wider range ...to be watched for
now narrow range suggests 'side ways market'.....
INITIATION OF TRADE
.............................
1.WATCH[OBSERVATION]
2.RESPONSE i]extreme......STOP
ii] favourable[ continue to hold or add]
other factor....problem of hope
3.now study specific case[with past data ,if ieod very good
4. failed expansion....too much too soon
5.trend termination...........trend of opposite....if proffesional fading coming with volume
..............
always ask current condition , value with mean [open high low close..mean] vs close price
HOW LONG TERM PLAY TRADER R THINKING ? R THEY UNCERTAIN ??
IF YES , DONT PUT MONEY......OBSERVE, LET OPPURTUNITY SLIP BUT DERISK
.....so now u test idea
check imbalance & direction of price move.......to reach a value in time and rupee from imbalance to balance.
IF FAILED EXPANSION CAN GIVE FADE....OPPOSITE DIRECTION TRADE[VICIOUS MOMENTUM
NEXT COMES STRENGTH OF BUYER AND HOLDING POWER....VS MARKETING STRATEGY ADOPTED BY MEDIA.....TO LURE THE WEAK MIND IN FORMING A CROWD RUN/CHASE
.....same way at bottom imbalance occur .........if new directional trend fail ? study....
oppurtunity or risk!!!
study neutral day and volatile day
...........................day 1,day 2, day 3, day 4, day 5.......@TOP ZONE AND BOTTOM ZONE
...........R U GETTING THE SIMILARITY ......HOPE NOW USE IT STOCK SP. CASE
now we actually watch this constantly unfortunately positional holding [blocked openion of direction] CRIPPLE OUR READING[ANALYSIS CAPACITY]
...............
IMP OF LONGTERM TRADER, ACTIVE PARTICIPATION CREATES BULLISH BIAS . ON THE CONTRARY AGGRESSIVE SELL BY THEM CAUSE DOWNFALL
WHEN THEY R UNDECIDED , WATCHING.....market stays in sideways

 

[oilman5]

another imp observation ,....one first move fail[neutralise by counter selling] THEN AGAIN MOVE ...........THIS NORMALLY HELPFUL, ACTUALLY 3RD MOVE HAS MORE STATISTICAL UPBIAS .
MIND IT ALWAYS.......PERCEPTION OF VALUE ITSELF IS VARIABLE
U MUST STUDY RELATIONSHIP WITH PREVIOUS DAY/WEEK......WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?IN MARKET ,IN THIS SESSION ..TODAY....THIS HR??
STUDY BALANCED DISTRIBUTION WHICH NORMALLY HAPPENS BUT AWARE OF POTENTIAL LIQUIDATION PT
a bull is ready to liquidate for profit .......but where??
adding of new info [+ive dimention].....no risk....hence hold further for bigger profit.
but opposite direction move starts.....bull must liquidate to book money profit.
hence excess of profit[desire].....act a new dimention to an existing trade
.......VOLUME TO STUDY....BIG MEANS MORE ATTRACTIVE BUYER OR SELLER
HENCE STUDY AFTER OPENING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY CLOSE .......HOW MARKET IS BEHAVING TODAY [1/2 HR]...CRUCIAL .UNDERSTAND WHAT IS A TREND IN CONTINUITY..
WHETHER IT EXISTS AND FURTHER CHANCE OF CONTINUITY , ON THE CONTRARY imbalance and move to extreme or mean reversion balancing move[no trade oppurtunity exist then]
ON THIS CONDITION ON ACTUAL MARKET CORRECT TRADE EXIST.....AND THIS IMBALANCE AND MOVE TO EXTREME FACILITATE A TRADE[ CONTINUATION TYPE BUY SYNDROME TRADE WITH TREND]
HOWEVER ANOTHER DIFFERENT BALL GAME CHOSEN BY A FEW PRO.
LOGIC..change can happen rapidly .observe[perception change of participants]
normally its dificult to understand change of trend due to bias[ so being minority these pro r in right side of trade,unexpected event due taken care of]
study session 1 hr chart bias & gap fill..session 2 ...session 3...session 4 session 5
similarly in day 1 day 2 day 3 day4 ....day5......WHEN OPPSITE FORCE ATTACK ?
HOW IT ATTACK ........INDIVIDUALS PERCEPTION OF VALUE......MOMENTARILY WEEK HAND GO IN UNCERTAINITY MODE AND ACT FOR SELF SABOTAGE.....THROW AWAY IDEA [IF AT ALL] IN PANIC.......AND supply money to this cold blooded pro......as if natural loser[being weak disciplined person]
HOWEVER STRONG HAND ALWAYS PROVEN RIGHT DUE TO CONFIDENCE[JUST LIKE RECENT ENTRY @BSE14200......]STICK TO AND READY TO BUY , ABSORB AT FALLING PRICE CONSIDERING IT AS FURTHER BUYING OPPURTUNITY
hence perception of same event has 2fold outcome/influence.......weak hand seller and strong hand as buyer
.......as a normal person we r fearful of uncertainity , so any event which has financial implication we watch, and try to derive its influence in short term and those who can think for long term,......size and visinity.....a cluster zone can be created considering upper boundary price tag[target]....and lower zone value [entry pt]
all we know condition affects price.......so plan should be ,
1]change of price up...sell oppurtunity
2]low zone...considerably buy idea....provided new percept not so bad
........dynamics of each case stock specific is different
....hence another idea .....surprise event
unlikely event
expected event ......has to be added
.................
in expected event normally mean reversion towards value equilibrium occur
another 2 factor.....fundamental impact of an event and understanding time frame r imp.
normally higher time frame ,say weekly......has more bias...
however in case an unlikely event ,occurs as a shock, price and its value both move together towards a directional bias until stability
hence give priority to surprise event as it act as oppurtunity
on the contrary if u r in wrong side , book loss early if possible reverse position
......remember for expected event after announcement normally price reacts to opposite direction
THIS INSIGHT HELP TO UNDERSTAND RISK BETTER IN TRADING
buyers /sellers confidence and uncertainity r imp factor
actually buyers' dominance /sellers big volume attack....this 2 greatly influence price and so called direction into 'oppurtunity' [threat to a fool]
wild move suggests thrust, when participant transfer from hesitent to aggressive ...wide range occurs.where as openion based participation without rigid parameter and future uncertainiy cause wide fluctuation [volatility]
hence a feel for value is vital
oppurtunity=price away from actual value
normally price fluctuate above and below value
execute=how quick u can act
depends on how much clearly u can visualise with certainity
always study from long term prospective,..what chance is there from present balance to go to quickly imbalance and stabilise higher[new] balance zone
.....now ask ....will sombody buy at higher,if yes....ok..buy now.
for shorting , if u see big seller may come or not.
hence mean reversion is a good theory to apply in market
..........................
hence u check if at present
1] current market is undervalued or not [strategy]
2]study of imbalance in buyer'side
3]continuity factor
..................
hence reaction to news is an imp study to understand internal strength of market
...........................
confident trader[longterm mature buyer] vs. novice day to day [trouble lover]
...........................
remember current perception of value r always reflected in price
............................
be ready for atleast 2 different event 1]unlikely.....2]expected one
play plan for both r entirely different
for unlikely event,if u r in otherside ,damage is very costly,hence prepare for it,..as then price and value both quickly goes against u,shockingly bigger loss
hence be ready in mental level for it[worst case scenario]
experience helps to understand this price/value/event relationship and expectation of people vs. news and its reflection in price
this i call market dynamics of watchers
hence confidence and uncertainity of watchers[potential buyer/seller] gives only directional bias.with uncertainity more rotation occurs ie. distribution phase
.................................
price distribution study
........................... study of ask vs. bid
1]10 -1030..first half hr

2]13-1330 lunch hr
volume or order flow study based on
3]15-1530[presently upto 16oo]close hr tick data[pib]
.................................................. ..............................
this study of tpo...time price oppurtunity concept u have to do for u [own research]
mine shall not validate ur plan....however i suggest to distinguish to understand
up day
down day
volatile day
.................
first half hr ..opening initial balance with yesterday close
lunch hr...observation of biasness development
closing hr...time to take action
................
most imp is long term holder[strong money] r participating or they r sensing danger...hence selling delivery [distributing] to sit on cash andor taking money out
.............
normally all buyers want to buy low and sell at profit[high]
so categorise buyers......short term and long term in trading percept.
long term trader search for unfairlow price with bigger view with higher holding period
shortterm player search and book profit with quick imbalance
hence when break out style is visible ,ranging is moving up with interesting higher pivot break pt, with perception of imbalance to continue.......long term player put big chunk of money near day end with high bias of continuity
so short term day trade type player ,skillful in execution take its advantage ..with their computer generated signal [an edge to take !%profit] continuously take profit with him as per his comfort level ......he is happy , as his scanner suggest oppurtunity every now and then.....based on %up list/volume up signal /a quick pivot break up.
however for long term buyer its not that easy........he has to search continuity of directional bias , ruthlessly buy out volume at top with money power to prove break out.
hence study on eod /weekly chart of impulse[main direction] and distribution [reaction]..
where this phenomena is going to happen now
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hence i repeat again ,good 1-2 day mometum players use to play to trade in the side of big money player.
some other skillful player trade ..buy and sell in small targeted zone.
however when other players,new players vs. strong money players maintain equilibrium ....
hence plan of small profit with sector rotation occur as equilibrium tradezone facilitates buy low at support and fade at weekly resistance pt.
so long term fund is out and watching as imbalance creation is aim for strong hand......with watch when they found without news some strong resistance zone is touching again and again ,they test with good money power ..can they break it? ,if yes, put it....and pull price price out of that resistance to new imbalance with a hope of continuity ,luckily greedy buyer or fearful short seller, sometimes media with news help them to fulfil target.
this balance area of around resistance line is test ground .....against new buyer by other pro seller or experiment field for short term players, however ...continuity or holding several days over this new acquired land [from bear]....severity of opponent comes down ...as a true pro they leave to win against bull in other stock where high price on top may attract short seller.
corolliary: market moves directionally unless opposite [reaction against impulse]...strong orderflow comes[attack by big sell].
......................
concept of whole [market] vs. part[individual stock]
..................
nifty component imp one r to be checked .....similarly for summation of total effect ie. play plan of nifty.
similarly for intraday........first playplan
i]range is defined ....high/low in first 10min...[for av trader 1/2 hr]
balancing of flow in it.....when and where it showing range expansion.....show direction defined
ii]so verifying continuity of imbalance in mental level
[i do it,u can use suitable software for it]
enter the trade.....as strong order flow is coming inyour direction ,while breaking predefined pivot ........
yes its the real intraday trade.
[however unless u know control of mind /experience.....hit of moment its not possible

 

[oilman5]

i shall continue
.................
top,high
I 1UPPER ZONE
I_
I 2MID ZONE,EQUILIBRIUM VALUE
I_
I
I_3 LOWER ZONE ,BEARISH BIAS

..............LET US STUDY THIS FIGURE, KEEP STRONGLY IN MIND
FOR OUR SIMPLICITY WE SEE AS A DAY BAR, HIGH.MIDDLE,LOW

middle maintain balance,some body called mean value....with a random +/- small value
a zone of equilibrium ,trade will try to facilitate near to it.
now total day bar.....dissect in 3 part, 1part top
2 part middle
3 part bottom
hence a daily range divide in 3 sect.......further study of a day activity.
imp thing is close, by defn end of day close defines....after fight by full day among bull vs. bear....final score.....where they maintain equilibrium
some body use crude 1/3 each, somebody modify total range 0-20 top
20-80 middle
80- 100 low
its in percentage of total day range, for deep study of close
i prefer for indian market , top 15%upbias
15-85%middle equilibrium range where fluctuation normal,mean reversion works
85- 100% bottom value for -bias
somebody prefers to calculate with pivot idea,someone with mean range ...top..bottom,
whatever may be chosen ...structure is same .........a top bias ,an mean equilibrium,a bottom bearish bias
.................we have to think now where is close, that way the biasness.
closing on top........strong upward bias
middle zone....any thing can happen
bottom....suggest bearish bias
now after day close.....all news info,new development...money extra available to put market
reflect quickly with next day opening.
as to facilitate trade day trader search for balance ,longterm player search for imbalance....entry idea and exit plan for both of them r different[in longterm we search for continuity]
now this similar concept can be put in hr bar range and weekly bar
normally higher time frame has more influence
however for simplicity we study hr bar here to understand impact on day trade from microlevel,
now on that particular range closing on top suggest we r interested
next hr bar more wide...moving with higher price zone decides to enter bullside..with big order flow coming in same direction
continuity 5-6bar creates a total day picture......with further strong bias
hints....friday close bar study ,close at bottom .....has given me computer generated short signal in my simple 10hr dema,close cut down]
.............role of observant and vigilant
..................................................
all we know ftse market of opening .....affects around 14hr in trading......and opening bias of nasdaq in tech shares.
now beginning must be observed carefully[in fluctuation as well as orderflow]
price must be treated as supreme ............holding of price over a particular value ...in a particular duration suggest lot of things
yes its the secret of trading
hence study of imbalance and test trade r imp.
...now after new price discovery it has a typical tendency to reach new balance , old resistance bounce .....idea of test validity of new price strength
somebody puts in oldway of impulse......and distribution [reaction]....upto a particular retracement value,
however next flow is all imp .......as it gives all important continuity of imbalance.....as seen in pennant and flag pattern
in other words orderflow or new money is vital.
imp oppurtunity occurs if continuiity can be seen,......VISUALISE for higher time frame .
the delivery trade by close........drying the float uplift price normally further up.
some of us in this field of trade experiment put this mean value +/- 2sigma.....a balanced zone with typical past data calculation for 'sigma' value...in this days of statistics,for them monthly once new value based on 20 trade day better.......however i warn too much math make trading less profit worthy....as its the execution and sense of survival that counts after stoping self sabotage,...holding the profitable trade sufficiently take care of u and ur family.dream big should not be motto,learn big and live in reality
.................
normally high value order occuring in the stable zone slowly seen....as all r ready to watch for volume play.market moves as perception of value[fundamental] changes.as all [different time ,different style players participate in market simultaneously view and analysis is not so easy[in fact very difficult time consuming process for me six year to learn and i am putting this hypothesis].......thats why an organized analytical view help.
key component r 1]interest of shortterm buyer[intraday]
2]interest from weekly chart[view from intermediate term]
3]interest of swing style [eod study followed by av
hence organize trade from this 3 element[put 3 different power spec. to see different view
and now give weightage]..........VISUALISATION IS KEY TRADE TOOL, IT ONLY HELPS TO ACT WHEN OPPURTUNITY/THREAT COMES .........otherwise fear/greed put u wrong trade..
put u in info paralysis,courage not to act.......u can be an analyst but not a trader.
larger time player has thats why better judgement,as considering temp fall they can buy in strong bull run.
report publication and its impact change in near term value.......later when bruice die down they enter slowly if long term view is that really good.in all time frame balancing occur through movement of price from quick imbalance[impulsive] to reach next probable balanced zone. volume suggests aggressiveness of participant
study of std 1-2-3 pattern[a-b-c named by others] is always helpful to understand change in value perception
successive session continue ie. biasness of trend.uncertain buyer/seller can not hold trade
linda has suggested first this simple break up of a range bar in 3sect......higher as 1, middle equilibrium and 3 low as down bias......now close gives more mathematical judgement than foolish openion style trade,.....see at close where more activity is ,in tick chart volume by more activity suggest buy by short term moody buyer or deep pocket longterm player .....
study of time and distance move by price clears it......
time when it breaks and move up very imp.
influence of current pice[close of last] also to be seen.close shows final sentiment of that particular time frame ..balance pt of bull/bear.now come influence ........if influence of price towards back[rationality].....price goes back to mean reversion.
if confirmity of irrational by price........up and up or by gap up ......concept of greed or trend fulfils.now most market participant believe [mean of total ie. market majority] it shallmove up....really it will move up.
this is the forward move of price......confirmity.
........................
normally most of time market maintain balance[equilibrium].
short term break of balance shown in long term chart[weekly]...gives oppurtunity when strong money players[biased] participate in trade with a vbiew to hold.
imbalance strength can be studed by volume , price roc also imp.....also study distribution [price relationship]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

majority time after new value discovery price move quickly occurs by impulsive move to reach new stable zone. a forward price driveness occurs in market, based on earlier close and feed by media.among all timeframe player higher time frame has max influence [dominance]
.......................recognisation of trend..............

to define a trend ,a ref pt has to taken..it may be yesterday close ...mean pt. or opening stabilise
another factor,.....market needs time to develop trend [continuation]..ie. market must show some move , then opposite direction force has to be neutralised, then only new direction strong trend move possible .
step 1; study in 'balance area'
so which direction imbalance is building up
step 2; now in relation to bigger picture ...how a trend may form
so fairly low..fairly high] ...which one is breaking with thrust ....govern..move in future
....................