Simple trading strategy in commodity

[johnnypareek]

Dear SaravananKS,

Thanks... Even I have check from 2005 data to backtest the whole thing again.....

This system is not working when there is a sudden rise or sudden fall in the Mkt...I mean to tell in a big trending Phase it's not working....

But this is working nicely in a range bound Mkt.....

Thanks all for their comments.....

This weekend I will include some more indicators (like RSI/MACD/BB) and will back test again to improve the success ratio

Well,

I found this very interesting. What my thought is that if you some how confirm whether market is trading or trending, you can use this sys. Using ADX() to market move, say if adx is below 25 then its range bound so you can carry on ur system, when ADX crosses 25 level Get alerted and tighten your stoploss. Its just a thought. Please check this with past data.

johnny

 

[SaravananKS]

Dear SaravananKS,

Thanks... Even I have check from 2005 data to backtest the whole thing again.....

This system is not working when there is a sudden rise or sudden fall in the Mkt...I mean to tell in a big trending Phase it's not working....

But this is working nicely in a range bound Mkt.....

Thanks all for their comments.....

This weekend I will include some more indicators (like RSI/MACD/BB) and will back test again to improve the success ratio

Since your system does not have any stop loss. then when you will exit if there was no profit oppartunity??? @ Contract Expiry Date ??? or rollover ??

 

[srikantpreddy]

SaravananKS,


Yes offcourse, we need to take roll over if we are sitting in loss or small profit

Dear Srikantpreddy,
your martingle Strategy will work in SideWays It will not work in trending Phase.

You May be success in Long Mode Since Usually commodities won't Stay below RSI 30 for Long Period.
but one should not over look the rollover cost.
if one has has huge capital then it is Possible to book profit in all Positions in commodities.
but he may not get a good return on investment

In short Side it is very danger method

Sample one from my personal experiance

Take 9th Sep 2010 when Silver Trading @ 32303 on that date RSI Was 79.34 if one adapted the same Strategy in short side definitly must have lose hugh amount.


all the best:thumb:

Since your system does not have any stop loss. then when you will exit if there was no profit oppartunity??? @ Contract Expiry Date ??? or rollover ??

 

[srikantpreddy]

Well,

I found this very interesting. What my thought is that if you some how confirm whether market is trading or trending, you can use this sys. Using ADX() to market move, say if adx is below 25 then its range bound so you can carry on ur system, when ADX crosses 25 level Get alerted and tighten your stoploss. Its just a thought. Please check this with past data.

johnny

Thanks johnnypareek....

As suggested, I will back test this again using certain other parameters (ADX is one among them) ....Fortunately I have got some profit using this system. But I am trying to make it more robust.

 

[johnnypareek]

Thanks johnnypareek....

As suggested, I will back test this again using certain other parameters (ADX is one among them) ....Fortunately I have got some profit using this system. But I am trying to make it more robust.

Hey,
Thanks for believing me. Why I wrote that coz I believe nature have surprises for us, so, we just can't make that win. Right?

johnny

 

[SaravananKS]

Hey,
Thanks for believing me. Why I wrote that coz I believe nature have surprises for us, so, we just can't make that win. Right?

johnny

Well,

I found this very interesting. What my thought is that if you some how confirm whether market is trading or trending, you can use this sys. Using ADX() to market move, say if adx is below 25 then its range bound so you can carry on ur system, when ADX crosses 25 level Get alerted and tighten your stoploss. Its just a thought. Please check this with past data.

johnny

For me ADX will show only Past Data whether it was in Trend or Not.

IMO it will not show futures Trend ...
Suppose sideways continues it will work.

if one use Bollinger Bands , where ADX is lower then 20 mostly the bands will be very close

So one can expect awide swing in any side which may be a trap:annoyed:

 

[johnnypareek]

For me ADX will show only Past Data whether it was in Trend or Not.

IMO it will not show futures Trend ...
Suppose sideways continues it will work.

if one use Bollinger Bands , where ADX is lower then 20 mostly the bands will be very close

So one can expect awide swing in any side which may be a trap:annoyed:

Bhai when I said it will make profitable only. What I mean is to hint the guy to R&D. Now I think every indicator use past data. I said some day ago Everyone can analysis left hand data n can tell you when the buy was perfect but the thing is Right side of chart which is blanks few bar. Nothing is for sure.

Peoples do this and that for earn profit, What I think is one should try to minimize loss as much as he can, and for that you have to try some new things. BB gives hints that a move may come as it gets tighten, right ? Which side it will be? does it tells? and I think its too use past data IMO.

Hmm try to scan daily TF with adx below 20 for long time. After that when the scrip moves compare that move with past normal move.
Ahh , Long reply after long time.

Thanks

johnny

 

[srikantpreddy]

This simple trading method has given me rich dividends again......check data for lead/zinc/aluminum for last 15days.......

Just after touching the RSI of 70-80, it fell like 9 pins in few days......

I am still not sure how to make this full proof....(tried to use MACD but it's a very lagging indicator)...

Any seniors, pls give me some direction so that i will research further

 

[DanPickUp]

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