SH's MArket Correction Prediction Strategy

[mayur553]

Thanks - but after i wrote above post .. the 100 EMA got tested in November end itself if I am not mistaken .....

Cheers
SH

Well 100 EMA got tested twice once in novmber and once in december... and both the time i lost money.. as i was expecting a big jump... but it didn't and market ended up range bound... so lost most of the money coz of time decay...

now long 5800pe and 6000ce... was in profit yesterday.. didn't exited as you said ur holding puts... coz markets closed below 100 ema... right now... m at breakeven... so confused what too do... yesterday went long 5700pe and 5800 ce too....

 

[Tradewithhunter]

Well 100 EMA got tested twice once in novmber and once in december... and both the time i lost money.. as i was expecting a big jump... but it didn't and market ended up range bound... so lost most of the money coz of time decay...

now long 5800pe and 6000ce... was in profit yesterday.. didn't exited as you said ur holding puts... coz markets closed below 100 ema... right now... m at breakeven... so confused what too do... yesterday went long 5700pe and 5800 ce too....

Dear Mayur - Last 2 times when 100 EMA was touched are as below....

On 23/11/2010 we touched 100 EMA at 5821 .. on 6/12/2010 we made a high of 6094 ... we got almost a 270 point move from 5821 ... the straddle would definitely had moved in profit ......you needed to buy Dec options and not November since the November expiry was so close.

On 9/12/2010 - we touched 100 EMA again at 5835 levels ... on 29/12/2010 before expiry we made a high of 6074 ... again 250 points move from entry price... again the straddle would have been in profit before that ....

In both scenarios - had you exited the leg which was losing (depending on whether mkts are trading below 100 EMA or above 100 EMA) you would have doubled your investment easily.....

Now third time .... 10 EMA tested around 5900 on 7/11/2011 and made a low of 5700 today ... 200 points move in just 3 days .... straddle in profit again ...

Cheers
SH

Cheers
SH

 

[pundit]

Dear Mayur - Last 2 times when 100 EMA was touched are as below....

On 23/11/2010 we touched 100 EMA at 5821 .. on 6/12/2010 we made a high of 6094 ... we got almost a 270 point move from 5821 ... the straddle would definitely had moved in profit ......you needed to buy Dec options and not November since the November expiry was so close.

On 9/12/2010 - we touched 100 EMA again at 5835 levels ... on 29/12/2010 before expiry we made a high of 6074 ... again 250 points move from entry price... again the straddle would have been in profit before that ....

In both scenarios - had you exited the leg which was losing (depending on whether mkts are trading below 100 EMA or above 100 EMA) you would have doubled your investment easily.....

Now third time .... 10 EMA tested around 5900 on 7/11/2011 and made a low of 5700 today ... 200 points move in just 3 days .... straddle in profit again ...

Cheers
SH

Cheers
SH

So SH have you booked your 5900 PE or you still holding it?

 

[Tradewithhunter]

So SH have you booked your 5900 PE or you still holding it?

Booked ... :thumb:

 

[pundit]

thanks i too booked my 5300PE

 

[mayur553]

Booked ... :thumb:

when did u booked when market hit the low of 5700... if yes.. then any technical indicator that made u exit.. as intially market were up... then wild down swing... and then again 100 pts up move...

 

[Piuvbn]

Hi what to do now? Thanks

 

[rrmhatre72]

hi SH,

Again market is coming closer to 100EMA(5876).
Entered 5800PE & 5900CE @150

 

[Tradewithhunter]

when did u booked when market hit the low of 5700... if yes.. then any technical indicator that made u exit.. as intially market were up... then wild down swing... and then again 100 pts up move...

Mayur - I exit whenever I am getting 25% on my investments.....I had exited much before 5700 low was hit.

Cheers
SH

 

[rrmhatre72]

hi SH,

Again market is coming closer to 100EMA(5876).
Entered 5800PE & 5900CE @150

Hi SH,

NS could not cross 100EMA(5876). Today's high was 5873.
How do you analyse this?
Does it indicate bears are still in charge? & this was just relief ralley?
how are you positioned now?