Secret of NIFTY movements

[uasish]

There is a phenemenon 'Managing the Nifty' , which many a times Smart money does,is Nifty being the right representative of the overall Mkt,plz take care of these type of things in your 'Project'.

 

[knarendra]

U R absolute right.



What the movement has to do with turn-over or volumes....? I am not sure if something really effect.....else it has to move on the basis of flucation of prices of 50 shares........

I think u want to know if 1 share is down by 5%, how much nifty will down......, if 20 shares are getting 2% and remaining 30 stocks are declining by 2% what % + - would be in nifty.....

If U mean that......let me know.......will try to my best






If you have time any one day you will explain the NIFTY 50 stocks with its contribution Nos.
regards,
naren

 

[stt]

After observing the Nifty's chart it appears that different heavyweights are used in various proportions to design Nifty's Hourly chart. I think that todays goal of smart money was to prevent hourly bar from closing in the green in order to restrict further downside in the short term.

 

[skarpio]

...There is a minor diff of .03779 that could be appear because of decimial calcuation.
...

Excellent post. But I still don't get the last column. Why would you take the percent change in stock price and figure out what percentage of change it is w.r.t to the Index value? I would like to know the physical aspect, if any, of this parameter.

I hate to do this, but I did notice a couple of things:

[1] The absolute difference should be > 6, since

Σ I * Σ J < 0

i.e. they have of opposite signs.

[2] Minor bug: J3=ABS(E3/H3*I3) should be (E3/H3*I3).

Regards,
skarpio

 

[sudoku1]

There is a phenemenon 'Managing the Nifty' , which many a times Smart money does,is Nifty being the right representative of the overall Mkt,plz take care of these type of things in your 'Project'.

its true that it is at times managed by big time operaters.....a mirror never lies & their action cannot escape a chartists eye for whatever the operaters r up to.....!

 

[skarpio]

Couldn't got w.r.t........please write what it mean...?

A handy abbreviation for 'with respect to'. Let me rephrase my question: how would you define the quantities in column J?

my personal thinking is - change of nifty % should be equal sum of change in all 50 stocks, If u watch the sheet Total change in nifty % is 3.26613%, other side sum of % change in stocks is 3.228344 (there is minor diff. and I am helpless here as it is auto calculated)

This justifies that no index-stock is preferred to over another (or a group of other index-stocks). Which is a reasonable thought I would subscribe to myself. However, I do have my two cents on the difference:
[1] Pedantically speaking the difference is about 1.16%. So, do we smell a smoothing factor which is applied to the net change to all index stocks? [The Conspiracy Theory school of thought ]

[2] Floating point round-off error: this is probably the only plausible reason. Different systems (software and otherwise) have different methods to round-off with floating point data (i.e. fractions) and typically yield results which start differing someplace after the decimal point.

[1] and [2] can be tested for by checking your calculator against historical data and if the difference is random [2] can be assumed to be true. However, a constant difference should hint at [1].

I used ABS just to remove the - sign, else u r right.

I guessed as much. However, not all rows of column J have the ABS() thingy. And it shouldn't be there as it violates the logic (in fact the net diff comes to > 4 if you have ABS everwhere).

 

[knarendra]

Dear faltub,
Im expecting this one.Thank you very much. But, pl.tell me how will you calculate stock movement from index point?
Pl.explain it.
regards,
naren

 

[skarpio]

What for......? Please give me a thought.

It seems I am not able to communicate the part in that sheet that I don't understand fully well. So let's leave it at that.

Thanks for the links, though.

[snip] I am trader and not mathmecian or excell/computer language expert. [snip]

Do not be offended, please. I thought the excel sheet was a wonderful start and I was trying to help you get it into a better shape. I thought I might be able to explain certain things (that is if you wanted to know ).

And should you have some issues with formulae/software, let me know -- I'll try to help.

Thanks again for tolerating my naivete.

 

[uasish]

Some Gr8 excercise is going on here,kidos to both Skarpio & Faltub.

 

[skarpio]

Thanks again for indicating the problem else may be I don't check it again.

Yes, I did see the latest sheet. It looks good. However, one thing the model fails to account for is the gap up/down which happens when the market opens. Moreover, the % deviation is way too much to be ascribed to floating point errors.

I would like others to put in their thoughts as well regarding this. For starters, I'll start with ashish da [Encouragement is not always good -- as you can see for yourself ]