Real Time Eur/Usd Live Trade

#11
Nautilus

Very deeply explained and nicely presented in easy to understand manner. I could have answered this query but not as nicely as you have presented it. After all the long yrs of exp helps.

Hopefully satinder would have got his answers.

I would like to add, I also trade like Nautilus but as the failure swing occurs, I combine the nautilus way but add Elliott & Fibo to it to be on a safer side, thats why I get less pips as entered 7750 and nautilus at 8300.

Any further info reqd, Satinder, do let us know.

Regards
James Alex
Trend is your FRIENd, FOLLOW it
 
#12
jamesalex_us said:
Dear Nautilus

A perfect calculation.

The downside macro target for a long period what I observe could be somewhere around 1.6350 - 1.6370.

But between these we could have many odd swings in our favour. So lets see when the next swing happens.

BTW You trade in Majors, or Minors & Crosses also.

Regards
James Alex
Trend is your FRIENd, FOLLOW it
James Hi:

I use the following methodology for calculating macro or major targets - the method involves averaging of two or three nearby weekly tops and two or three nearby bottoms. But the rest of the calculations are identical to the ones posted previously.

What I do is take the previous weekly highs that are significant highs (netdania weekly charts) a) week ending 13/12/04 @1.9549 and b) week ending 16/2/04 @ 1.9141 and average them = 1.9345

Then I take similarly significant weekly lows a) week ending 1/9/03 @ 1.5610 and b) week ending 7/4/03 @ 1.5427 and average them = 1.5519

Possible target = 1.9345-((1.9345-1.5519)x75%) = 1.6475

In a similar vein you can take this a little further back for a really major objective which involves very significant lows at a) week ending 19/11/01 @1.4037 and b) week ending 11/6/01 @1.3678 and average them = 1.3858

Possible long term major target = 1.9345-((1.9345-1.3858)x75%) = 1.5230

It is important to pick significant tops and bottoms where either major reaction have ended or an old trend has terminated or a new trend is begining.

I do this to give my self an extra margin of error in calculations of the targets.

I had forgotten to add this point to my previous post.

Regards

nautilus
 
#13
Hi

The first target met but as of writing the second target was short for about 9 pips trading GBP at 1.7519 and the target is 1.7510.

Let's see whether it touches it, the position is still opned with SL mover to 1.7600

Regards
James Alex
Trend is your FRIENd, FOLLOW it
 
#14
jamesalex_us said:
Hi

The first target met but as of writing the second target was short for about 9 pips trading GBP at 1.7519 and the target is 1.7510.

Let's see whether it touches it, the position is still opned with SL mover to 1.7600

Regards
James Alex
Trend is your FRIENd, FOLLOW it
Nice one James!!

Nautilus
 
#18
comerciante_inde said:
Nautilus
What do you say on EURUSD at these levels. For the modern-day long term do you perceive 1.27 - 1.28 levels achievable by christmas.
Cheers.
Hi commerciante_inde:

This is a difficult question to answer - reason being that I am a trend follower and I trade what I see (in terms of the market behaviour). As per my analysis the Eur/Usd turned bearish around March/April of this year and since then I have been trading the short side of Eur, and as yet nothing tells me that the trend in Euro has turned bullish and my long term objective on Euro is around 0.9650 to 0.9700 and I have brought the stop-losses on my long term positions down to 1.2275.

This is the current state of play as far as my trading is concerned.

Alternative Scenario:

However while trading I also work out an alternative scenario (which keeps me sane) - which is as follows:

1) Among the patterns I study the alternative scenario suggested by one of the patterns is that the Eur/Usd market has the potential to break above 1.2600 and possibly approach 1.27 - 1.28 (as suggested by you) from the current levels of just over 1.2100. This will result in liquidation of all my long term short Eur/Usd positions at 1.2275.

2) But this pattern also suggests that if the Eur/Usd fails around those levels (1.26 -1.28) no damage has been done to the prevailing bear trend in Eur/Usd and further that this bear trend will re-emerge quite aggresively and the Usd will gain an upper hand. The price failure will also be confirmed by some more price patterns - this will also result in a Euro bull trap - Euro bulls will start entering the market just above 1.2600.

3) However if the prices hold quite well above 1.26 and make further progress on the upside- then this will result in Eur/Usd bear trend reversing and Euro going into a bull trend against Usd - at which point I will start trading long Euro against Usd.

I will just trade what I see - no loss of face here!Emotions do not feature in my trading - just execution of the plan.

So to answer your question whether Eur/Usd will reach 1.27-1.28 by Christmas - Its distinctly possible according to the alternative scenario!

Regards

Nautilus
 
#19
comerciante_inde said:
Nautilus
What do you say on EURUSD at these levels. For the modern-day long term do you perceive 1.27 - 1.28 levels achievable by christmas.
Cheers.
Hi comerciante_inde

I dont think so as the EURUSD is currently in a short term uptrend/bullish but the long time frame shows that the Euro is bearish/downtrend so we can expect the downfall to be around 1.1200 - 1.1250 levels.

In the current scenario of short term bullish/uptrend we could expect somewhere around 1.2400 - 1.2450, but cannot predict correctly as on date.

Today a new opportunity has emerged in GBPCHF

Enter Short: 2.2485
Stop Loss: 2.2640
Profit Booking: 2.2285 / 2.2240 / 2.2218

This is just my trade so dont follow it.

Regards
James Alex
Trend is your FRIENd, FOLLOW it
 
Last edited:
#20
hi james
Do you trade indian rupee?In your post I foud you use elliottwave.
So,do you have a count for INR/usd.We cant trade currency here
in India but due to my interest in Elliottwave and a hope that in
future we might be allowed to trade currency when rupee becomes
fully convertible I do keep a count for rupee/usd. I think inr is in fourth wave of cycle degree,and in wave B of that wave. After competion of this Bwave rupee should go to 32-35 levels to comlete this wave four which might occur in 2006-2007. Any thoughts?
regards,
joy_verma
 

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