Probability and Trading


Well-Known Member
In trading communities, we often hear things like, " by flip of a coin, you have a chance of winning 50%" etc.

Is trading really similar to coin flip?

It is not an even comparison. For a trader to get to close to a coin flip kind of trade, one has to fix a time of the day and shoot the entry order in just one direction every day either long, or, short. Set achievable numbers within a given time line for both Target as well as Stop Loss, and then, this approach becomes more parallel to your coin toss.

If one sets the target number slightly higher than SL number, one has a loaded coin on hand.

Still one can lose on transaction charges and slippages.
I guess if we take it as a coin flip with only two options in forex trading it can be relatively true because either we win or lose but if we does not take time to analyze markets and through the dart in the dark it will not like trading perhaps then it will be termed as gambling.

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