First on the agenda is to identify the cycle...
since price moves in waves making higher high higher low in an up trend and lower low lower high in a down trend. But sometimes this can be very deceptive in nature. In reality, price moves up until the last buyer has filled his quota and price falls as long as last seller has sold his inventory. The excess in price in either direction normally have a very tapered volume associated with it. This gives rise to tails which is a sign of the opposite forces reaction to extremes. That excess in either direction needs to be ignored and cumulative effect of last few bars needs to be seen as a unit. Most common method for removing the noise has been moving averages.
In order to de-trend price, we will use 5ma to remove the noise of price action.
Recent example shows that our recent spike in price to 5970 was not accompanied by higher high on the MA. We then made a higher low on price while MA begged to differ again. Next high on MA was much lower than previous pivotal high on MA and bar close below the MA was a good invite to go short marked in red circle.