Nifty Swing Trading System - Back tested - Highly Profitable Results

Based on the back test results is it a good system to trade?


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Cubt

Well-Known Member
#1
I have back tested a Swing Trading system for Nifty. I have back tested it with 4 years of data from 2008 to 2011. As I do not have historical data for the remaining periods I couldn't test further. The results are amazing.

I have been using this system since one month now and total no of profits were 1142 points till now with 18 trades. I was lucky enough to catch the recent 500 points run up in Nifty.

Please find below the summary of back test results.

Last 6 Months Backtest Results:

Back Test period: March 2013 to Sept 2013

Chart: 30 Mins TF

Total no of Trades: 126

Total no of Nifty Points earned: 2200 (excluding brokerage & other charges)

Maximum Loss in one Trade: -96 points

Maximum continues loss in a trade: -156 points

Maximum Profit in one trade: 431 points

Maximum Consecutive profit: 588 points

Average points per month: 314 Points

Only one loss month: -65 Points

The Excel sheet contains the detailed list about every trades of 4 years of data, trade type, trade executed time, profit each month, maximum loss in a trade, maximum consecutive loss etc.

Kindly review the results and provide your inputs!


Results Summary:

Back Test period: Year 2008 to 2011

Chart: 30 Mins TF

Total no of Trades: 946

Total no of Nifty Points earned: 19097 (excluding brokerage & other charges)

Maximum Loss in one Trade: -201 points

Maximum continues loss in a trade: -358 points

Maximum Profit in one trade: 843 points

Maximum Consecutive profit: 1263 points

Average points per month: 400 Points

Only 3 loss month occurred in 48 Months: -278 Points




Amount Rs. 2 Lacs with starting Capital in 2008 Jan becomes Rs.3819590 in 2011 December.

(1 Lac for 4 lots of Nifty & 1 lac as extra buffer capital)



Note: The above calculation is not based on any excel compounding or any other manipulation. It is the result of actual trades taken place from 2008 Jan to 2011 Dec, real money!

http://www.4shared.com/file/36UvIDtE/Nifty_Intraday_Backtest_result.html
 
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#2
Hello Cubt

From the way you have presented the stats it is clear that you know what to look for while evaluating the system performance . . .

You have all the right stuff like max DD on a trade and System, max DD period etc . . .

May be you can also specifically look at losing and wining streaks . . .

Will look at stats in detail after the market timings and maybe give my impression about the results . . .

Meanwhile can you tell us, after evaluating your results, what are you exactly looking for as inputs from others,
i don't think you need any reinforcement from others for how good your system is, this conviction can only come from inside you . . .


:) Happy
 

Cubt

Well-Known Member
#3
Hello Cubt

Meanwhile can you tell us, after evaluating your results, what are you exactly looking for as inputs from others,


:) Happy
Thanks Happy, as I have recently started following a system based trading I would like to know is there anything I need to specifically focus on while following a system?

Is the above analysis good enough to completely relay on my system n focus on it for rest of the years?

As am a working professional, I cannot do intraday however I can place one or two trades in a day. Thats why I believe this system suits me.
 

Cubt

Well-Known Member
#4
Dear cubt,

Very nice results.........:clapping::thumb:

Your Swing Trading system based on any AFL / indicator or PA( price action)....??


HEM
Dear HEM,

Its based on a Afl I recently bought
 
#6
Thanks Happy, as I have recently started following a system based trading I would like to know is there anything I need to specifically focus on while following a system?

Is the above analysis good enough to completely relay on my system n focus on it for rest of the years?

As am a working professional, I cannot do intraday however I can place one or two trades in a day. Thats why I believe this system suits me.
The stats are good, no doubt, but the funny thing is like cigarettes, the AFLs also come with a health warning . . .
(past performance is no guarantee of future results :))

Staying with the system during its rough patch is a challenging task all traders have to face.
But if you have already experienced a very good winning streak, then staying put with losing runs becomes easy.

It is not about number of points we make in a month/year,
seriously if the system is making 150 points instead of your desired 200,
would it be difficult to increase your trade size from say 200 to 250/300???

The true challenge is about facing the uncertainty . . . lets say the next -ve patch for the system will last for 40 days, are you prepared for it ???

For that, understanding the system how it works and its relative performance in different market phases
(strong,weak // bullish,bearish,sideways) may help us to cope with it in a better way . . .

:) Happy
 

Cubt

Well-Known Member
#9
Sir, max loss in a trade, max continues loss in a trade, plz elobrate in simple english.
Loss in one trade is the maximum loss u can get in a single trade, I.e on one buy and sell transaction.

Maximum continues loss is the maximum loss u would face consistently when trading with this system
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#10
Hi Cubt,

Converting the ideal trades into real trades is the challenge. In fact, I'd go ahead and say that it is near impossible to earn from an AFL and there is a reason behind it.

Allow me to expound. It is a tough task to correctly take a large number of trades, say 500 of them. Yet, some are able to do it. Why? Because, I think, that they have only one perspective/focus. There is no distraction.

From their years of experience they are able to shut out all other conversations and know exactly what to focus on. They have learned through first hand experience of what is important and really matters.

On the other hand, one who takes a quicker route still has not developed this ability to shut out distractions, hence will surely be distracted. As a result he would do one or more of the following to render the AFL ineffective:

1. Not take a few trades after some losses. As a result he would miss the big move.
2. Anticipate an entry, and hence build up loss and add to frustration and also making it difficult to take future trades.
3. Doing ones own TA. And trying to further "optimize" the system.
4. Using real time news to do .3.
5. Being lenient on stop loss, as a result converting a small loss into a disaster.

I have experienced all of the 5, several times over (except for #5). And honestly speaking I am not sure if I'd want to go any other way.

Rgds.
 
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