Nifty future trend as per 1SD formula

[Rish]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.

Price range = 0.1470*7974*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.30
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle 
 	1sdprice range	162.329	 
 	LTP	7974	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	38.30964758	8012.31	7935.69
0.382	62.0096838	8036.01	7911.99
0.5	81.16450759	8055.165	7892.835
0.618	100.3193314	8074.319	7873.681
0.786	127.5906059	8101.591	7846.409
0.888	144.1481655	8118.148	7829.852
1.236	200.6386628	8174.639	7773.361
1.618	262.6483465	8236.648	7711.352

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8012, successful cross over above 8055 will target 8074-8175-8237. Down trend conformation 7936 successful fall below 7893 will trigger fall till 7874-7773-7711.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8074 and all down move invites short covering at 7874 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7874 to 8074
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8012 with initial stop loss of 7936 for initial target 8074 or selling future below 7936 with stop loss 8012 for target 7874 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Regards
Ranjan

My 1st week view of October 2015 expiry as per the 1 SD formula which was partially achived: Downtrend conformation 7857 given on Monday and achieved 7705 close near to 1.236 retracement on Tuesday, 7934 uptrend crossover happen on Tuesday and achieved till 8037 close near to 0.888 retracement.

What is the meaning of partially achieved ?

Back test results shows, no great success in this strategy, normal traders can't follow this strategy, because trending market, this looks good, trading market, your a/c will be into trouble. No big player will follow this rule 101% for sure.

Pratab's VWAP method have set of Rule and the results are good in any kind of Market, because, rules are fixed properly.

This is my personal view with back test result.

 

[columbus]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.

Price range = 0.1470*7974*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.30
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle 
 	1sdprice range	162.329	 
 	LTP	7974	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	38.30964758	8012.31	7935.69
0.382	62.0096838	8036.01	7911.99
0.5	81.16450759	8055.165	7892.835
0.618	100.3193314	8074.319	7873.681
0.786	127.5906059	8101.591	7846.409
0.888	144.1481655	8118.148	7829.852
1.236	200.6386628	8174.639	7773.361
1.618	262.6483465	8236.648	7711.352

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8012, successful cross over above 8055 will target 8074-8175-8237. Down trend conformation 7936 successful fall below 7893 will trigger fall till 7874-7773-7711.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8074 and all down move invites short covering at 7874 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7874 to 8074
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8012 with initial stop loss of 7936 for initial target 8074 or selling future below 7936 with stop loss 8012 for target 7874 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Regards
Ranjan

My 1st week view of October 2015 expiry as per the 1 SD formula which was partially achived: Downtrend conformation 7857 given on Monday and achieved 7705 close near to 1.236 retracement on Tuesday, 7934 uptrend crossover happen on Tuesday and achieved till 8037 close near to 0.888 retracement.

Looks better.


Price range = 0.1470*7974*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.30

Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle 
 	1sdprice range	162	 
 	LTP	7974	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	 38	8012	7936
0.382	 62	8036	7912
0.500	 81	8055	7893

.............etc

 

[soumyaranjanin]

worked perfectly

 

[light2001]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.

Price range = 0.1470*7974*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.30
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle 
 	1sdprice range	162.329	 
 	LTP	7974	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	38.30964758	8012.31	7935.69
0.382	62.0096838	8036.01	7911.99
0.5	81.16450759	8055.165	7892.835
0.618	100.3193314	8074.319	7873.681
0.786	127.5906059	8101.591	7846.409
0.888	144.1481655	8118.148	7829.852
1.236	200.6386628	8174.639	7773.361
1.618	262.6483465	8236.648	7711.352

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8012, successful cross over above 8055 will target 8074-8175-8237. Down trend conformation 7936 successful fall below 7893 will trigger fall till 7874-7773-7711.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8074 and all down move invites short covering at 7874 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7874 to 8074
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8012 with initial stop loss of 7936 for initial target 8074 or selling future below 7936 with stop loss 8012 for target 7874 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Regards
Ranjan

My 1st week view of October 2015 expiry as per the 1 SD formula which was partially achived: Downtrend conformation 7857 given on Monday and achieved 7705 close near to 1.236 retracement on Tuesday, 7934 uptrend crossover happen on Tuesday and achieved till 8037 close near to 0.888 retracement.

Thanks sir, all uptrand target achived.....great......simple......thanks ones again:clapping:

 

[light2001]

Hii,

Can any one given same in crude oil n banknifty.

Please help me,

Thanks:clap::clap::clapping:

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Price range for coming week 12th to 16th October = 148
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle and 1SD formula
LTP	8195	 
Trend expectation as per 1SD-Fibonacci rule developed by me
0.236	34.81825	8229.818247	8160.181753
0.382	56.35835	8251.358349	8138.641651
0.5	73.76747	8268.767472	8121.232528
0.618	91.1766      8286.176596	8103.823404
0.786	115.9625	8310.962466	8079.037534
0.888	131.011      8326.011031	8063.988969
1.236	182.3532	8377.353192	8012.646808
1.618	238.7115	8433.71154	7956.28846

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8230, successful cross over above 8286 will target 8310-8377-8434. Down trend conformation 8160 successful fall below 8104 will trigger fall till 8079-8013-7956.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8286 and all down move invites short covering at 8104 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8286 to 8104
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8229 with initial stop loss of 8160 for initial target 8286 or selling future below 8160 with stop loss 8229 for target 8104 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Ranjan

 

[Rish]

Price range for coming week 12th to 16th October = 148
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle and 1SD formula
LTP	8195	 
Trend expectation as per 1SD-Fibonacci rule developed by me
0.236	34.81825	8229.818247	8160.181753
0.382	56.35835	8251.358349	8138.641651
0.5	73.76747	8268.767472	8121.232528
0.618	91.1766      8286.176596	8103.823404
0.786	115.9625	8310.962466	8079.037534
0.888	131.011      8326.011031	8063.988969
1.236	182.3532	8377.353192	8012.646808
1.618	238.7115	8433.71154	7956.28846

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8230, successful cross over above 8286 will target 8310-8377-8434. Down trend conformation 8160 successful fall below 8104 will trigger fall till 8079-8013-7956.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8286 and all down move invites short covering at 8104 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8286 to 8104
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8229 with initial stop loss of 8160 for initial target 8286 or selling future below 8160 with stop loss 8229 for target 8104 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Ranjan

Ranjan

Yesterday Long initiated and s/l triggered.

Now, as per strategy now short triggered with s/l of 8229 and target 8104, am i right ?.

My doubt is,"Mentioned weekly levels and not be used for Intraday", hence, this query ?

 

[register1803]

Can anybody put this formula into excel format in can you @soumyaranjan ????

 

[register1803]

Price range for coming week 12th to 16th October = 148
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle and 1SD formula
LTP	8195	 
Trend expectation as per 1SD-Fibonacci rule developed by me
0.236	34.81825	8229.818247	8160.181753
0.382	56.35835	8251.358349	8138.641651
0.5	73.76747	8268.767472	8121.232528
0.618	91.1766      8286.176596	8103.823404
0.786	115.9625	8310.962466	8079.037534
0.888	131.011      8326.011031	8063.988969
1.236	182.3532	8377.353192	8012.646808
1.618	238.7115	8433.71154	7956.28846

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8230, successful cross over above 8286 will target 8310-8377-8434. Down trend conformation 8160 successful fall below 8104 will trigger fall till 8079-8013-7956.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8286 and all down move invites short covering at 8104 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8286 to 8104
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8229 with initial stop loss of 8160 for initial target 8286 or selling future below 8160 with stop loss 8229 for target 8104 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Ranjan

please show us the way of calculating volatility

 

[mchanmal]

Does anyone have a software where when spot nifty reaches our stoploss trade in future is executed.