Hello Members,
I have created a swing trading system and backtest on all NSE stocks. Backtest criteria are (1) All quotes (2) Position trading (3) No short trades.
Please see the result and share your views.
(moneypick)
Hello,
Thanks for asking my opinion.......
by looking ur backtest report....the system seems good...
see ....the backtesting is done or performs only on one distribution.this the limitation of backtesting.
u need a simulator to simulate all the possible distributions of ur 337 trades.
by taking ur data i have run 100 simulation's of ur 337 trades
all are given positive results...sometimes greater capital than in backtesting and sometimes little less than ur ending capital. overall the system the system is excellent..
the max consecutive losses may come more than 5,in my simulation it showed 8 straight losses in one of the 100 distributions.(which is not a big issue, for risking 1% of ur capital).
here are the some problems with excellent systems......
1)by seeing ur annual return i.e less than 9%(in backtesting) i can guess the backtesting peroid. banks can easily give u that kind of annual returns may be even more.
2).less no.of trades per year....even u can have a loosing year in bear market condition.
3).frequency of trades does matter in trading,study vantharp books on trading systems he will explain each and every aspect that need to be considered while building a system.
..........
i have also one system which gives aout 70-75% results with near or more than 1:2 ratio,but it produces only 13-20 trades per year,i use this sytem with conjunction to other systems to increase my expectancy.....
iam not a strong believer of Fundamental analysis, i believe what i see on charts,and i also know that all glitters(charts) are not gold.
so i can't help u in fundamental analysis.
regards,