Need help with a crude oil strategy

#1
Hi ,

I need help from this great platform , I have observed that in 30 min chart of crude oil , whenever a the previous 30 min candle high or low is broken we can scalp around 5 points per trade , but my in my mock trading I am hitting my SL of 5 points and then the price again crosses low / high and goes on to hit my 5 points target .

Any way we can avoid such a SL hit .

Thanks for your help
 

imfine

Well-Known Member
#3
Hi ,

I need help from this great platform , I have observed that in 30 min chart of crude oil , whenever a the previous 30 min candle high or low is broken we can scalp around 5 points per trade , but my in my mock trading I am hitting my SL of 5 points and then the price again crosses low / high and goes on to hit my 5 points target .

Any way we can avoid such a SL hit .

Thanks for your help
Don't try to tame crude with just 5 points. It's one of the highest volatile commodity.
 

zabeen2004

Well-Known Member
#5
Hi ,

I need help from this great platform , I have observed that in 30 min chart of crude oil , whenever a the previous 30 min candle high or low is broken we can scalp around 5 points per trade , but my in my mock trading I am hitting my SL of 5 points and then the price again crosses low / high and goes on to hit my 5 points target .

Any way we can avoid such a SL hit .

Thanks for your help
Please dont take my comments as against your thinking but reality.
1. Scalping in crudeoil for 5 points is useless. bcoz if you win 1 trade then 3 point profit after all charges if you loose then 7-8 points after all charges sometimes SLM order might pick more. So 2 winner will neutralize if 1 looser..i.e..no profit or very minimal. So six trades with 4 winners and 2 loosers will still keep you PL to 0 or 100rs. Risk reward is not favorable inthisapproach.
2. No indicators or trading system will work in crudeoil... I have tested 1000+ with accuracy of 20-40% winning ratio.
3. In current scenario considering crude 200 points range you should atleast keep 10-20 points per trade.

Finally to asnwer your question buy the pullback after breaking high/low which might help and you need to calculate how much point it comes down before reaching your target and how many trades does that...etc...
By the way appreciate you are doing mock trading and asking logical questions.. All the best for your success
 
#6
Please dont take my comments as against your thinking but reality.
1. Scalping in crudeoil for 5 points is useless. bcoz if you win 1 trade then 3 point profit after all charges if you loose then 7-8 points after all charges sometimes SLM order might pick more. So 2 winner will neutralize if 1 looser..i.e..no profit or very minimal. So six trades with 4 winners and 2 loosers will still keep you PL to 0 or 100rs. Risk reward is not favorable inthisapproach.
2. No indicators or trading system will work in crudeoil... I have tested 1000+ with accuracy of 20-40% winning ratio.
3. In current scenario considering crude 200 points range you should atleast keep 10-20 points per trade.

Finally to asnwer your question buy the pullback after breaking high/low which might help and you need to calculate how much point it comes down before reaching your target and how many trades does that...etc...
By the way appreciate you are doing mock trading and asking logical questions.. All the best for your success
Thanks for your insight , could anyone guide me on how to develop a trading plan with crude oil ? Which books would be helpful ?
 

praveen98

Well-Known Member
#7
Hi Faraz 89,
Try learning Point and Figure methodology and develop a trading system based on the Pnf charting methodology. And try to trade Crude from Swing trading style than scalping style as you are planning. Even though it looks easy in paper trading scalping in markets will be tough as moves are faded quickly.So try to deal the volatility with more space price wise and less size . I mean trade small with wide stop loss and profit targets with less size so that each trade risk is within your risk parameters.

CRUDE India.png


The above chart is Log scaled chart date range is 23rd Nov to 7th Dec. You can observe from the chart, if you can afford 20 point stops , you can trade retracements for 1 box risk and 4 box reward trades.You can execute 8 trades in 2 weeks. Out of which 3 are winning trades and 5 are losing trades. So you will be losing 5 R and gaining 12 R at gross level before brokerages.I think 7 R in a fortnight is good enough to build your account. But you should be patient and wait for your price to get in.

But the catch here is the system is not back tested over a long period. So first learn the method, then back test the method on historical data and paper trade the method for forward testing simultaneously. If you are satisfied with the method both in back testing and forward testing, then only employ the method.
So get ready for the hard work....
All the Best.
 
#9
R u interested in intraday only ?
Yes , initially was looking into intraday only as I though if I would be able to scalp 6-10 points in a day with a discount broker like wisdom capital ( whose charges account to only 1.2 points /lot ) and thought if I could add like a macd or ema cross over to my theory I would be able to achieve it .

Anyways after all of your replies , I am taking a step back and looking into the positional trading system which you have covered in the other threads .

Just for information , can I avoid whipsaws if I use 3 EMAS - 5,10,20 in 5 mins chart to scalp ? This is just for knowledge

Thanks
 

imfine

Well-Known Member
#10
Yes , initially was looking into intraday only as I though if I would be able to scalp 6-10 points in a day with a discount broker like wisdom capital ( whose charges account to only 1.2 points /lot ) and thought if I could add like a macd or ema cross over to my theory I would be able to achieve it .

Anyways after all of your replies , I am taking a step back and looking into the positional trading system which you have covered in the other threads .

Just for information , can I avoid whipsaws if I use 3 EMAS - 5,10,20 in 5 mins chart to scalp ? This is just for knowledge

Thanks
I used to work on one intraday strategy on crudeoil. Though it was working good but as i cant sit daily on charts so i took over the positional. If u want i can give that ststrategy on your thread. U can backtest it and see can work on it.
 

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