My USDINR commentary


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In this thread, I will be posting for commentary on the USD/INR pair.

Price points mentioned in this thread will be that of the future nearest contract on NSE.
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I noticed that aswell, JAMIT has been inspiring me to look at technicals aswell. I will follow this thread as it will my business, lol


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The USDINR trend is down presently. The distribution phase seems to be coming to an end. The price action is likely to pierce down through the price levels that have previously acted as 'support'. For example:

59.1450 on 21 Jun
59.2225 on 01 Jul
59.0600 on 16 Jul
59.1050 on 17 Jul
59.0475 on 24 Jul(yesterday's low price)


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Tomorrow should be an interesting day to watch. At EOD, the price action of today has not turned out according to my wish, hope and expectation. As of now, we seemed to have stopped near a support. Cannot say whether price will move up again and establish uptrend on a larger time-frame, or whether the price will go sideways, or down. On the chart, most parameters indicate weakness. The only observation that goes against 'weakness' is the present support level at which price is resting.

So, as of now, I see the following possibilities:
  1. A significant gap-down tomorrow 'throughout' the day (meaning not just at the opening, but throughout the day)
  2. A small up-move in few(2 to 4) trading days before the price breaks down below this support. Even if the up-move happens, it will still require the charts to be observed at that later time to conclude whether the up move will sustain or not. I am making this conclusion of down move based only upon my psycho-technical bearish bias on the USDINR pair.


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On NSE, nearest future contract opened at 58.8900. It was settled yesterday(closing price) at 59.1275. So there is a gap-down of 0.2375. The gap down was expected as I had said in a post above.

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