My trade setups

Update on this position-

Today this has reached our initially mentioned target of 8850 (mentioned in the reference post). Although this still looks pretty strong to me, I have closed just 20% of my position to reduce risk here. Closed the 20% @8864.
Also raising the stop to 8588.60 for the remaining 80% of the position.
Update on this position-

I have just sold another 20% of this position @8900. On short-term this is making a small range which might get broken out on either side. So I just wanted to reduce my risk here. It looks like it would be breaking out this range upwards. Now I am running with 60% of the initial position.
Next stock in my portfolio is DATAMATICS. One thing to learn about market is that- "Even if it's a bad stock, if the entry timing is good, you'll end up losing very little. But if the entry timing is good, and even if it's a bad stock selection, you'll end up breaking even or at most making really less profits." Needless to say what a disaster it would be if it is a bad stock+bad entry combination.

I feel this one is a good case study for bad timing. Overall the stock looked pretty good to me-

1. This had a promising long term chart. Doing nice rally after big 2 year consolidation.

2. On intermediate-term, after a good breakout and consolidation, this was coming back for a test.

As you can see in the chart above, the swing point area is quite wide. So the test can go way deep till 588. That is the risk part of it. Here there are two choices for me - a) wait for it to see if it goes deeper for the test (maybe take a partial position) or b) jump on the train asap. I chose the latter because short-term was looking pretty enticing.

3. On short-term this was on a sideways range which was pretty extended and this was about to do a breakout. The upside breakout looked more promising as there were 4 swing points waiting to be broken anytime.

I jumped on the train and took my position @706.49. This did breakout of the range but on the downside. There was a back-to-back drop for three days of around 20% net. This led the price to go to the bottom of the retest area which I was talking about earlier.

Anyhow, it would have been foolish to sell out at that point because it was near the support and there was not much risk left in keeping the position. Again, at this point my thesis of retesting the swing point still held good. It was just that I took the entry with bad timing and market was also not in the mood to be lenient.

This is currently trying to do some correction back up after this fall. It would be folish of me to hope that the price will bounce back competely and then do the breakouts at the highs which I was hoping for. I am looking to make an exit near 650 area where I fell this would start getting the selling pressure again. I'll make an update post once I make any movement on this position.
Today I am going to share my analysis for MARUTI-

1. On long-term, this was pretty strong. On top of that it was also doing a retest on one of the swing points.
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2. The intermediate term also reciprocated the long-term story. The retest was happening here as well with an added advantage of it happening after around 20 bars. Such retest always have way better probability of regenerating. There was also good support around it by high volume and wide price bars.
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3. The short-term gave a good opportunity to enter when the stock was failing multiple break-downs of an important swing point low. Failing with lower volume is a good indication that it might get reversed anytime.
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>> I took a position in this on 30th Jan. Luckily for me, it started reversing from the next day itself and regenerated with good strength.
>> I kept a stop below the weekly swing point high bar. Since it started regenerating quickly, I systematically raised my stops to secure some profits.
>> There were multiple Fibonacci projections active on this (which also indicates higher chances of rally). Based on them I kept an initial target of 10630.

>> This reached my target on 5th Feb but started reversing from there. Just to be safe, I sold out 25% of my position there @10600. By next day it continued its rally. I sold another 50% on 8th Feb @10765.40. The price quickly recovered from there next day itself and have been having a strong rally ever since. As of now I am holding just 25% of my initial position. It has already crossed its expected projection and might be loosing its steam soon. I will close this position with the first sign of a pullback on this.
Update on this post-

I have sold the remaining 25% of my position here today @11285. This still is a strong stock but it looked like it can go for a deeper pullback or make sideways move for a while now. I might try to buy this again later if there is a good retrace happening.
Next stock in my portfolio is EQUITASBNK. I have kept a bias towards Financial Services in my portfolio. This is mainly because I feel Finserv is one of the few sectors as of now which is not really extended with its bullish run. So in case of a big drawdown or rotation in the market these would be the last one to face the brunt of it.

Another thing which reduces the chances of big drawdowns are strong long-term performance. This had that box checked as well. Overall, this had a nice combination of (Finserv stock + Bullish long term + momentum of smallcap) combination. I was waiting for a good entry point here which came earlier this month.

This was doing some correction in its price after a range breakout. That lead to testing two of its swing point highs. On top of that, there was good support by high volume bar near the bottom of swing point candles.

This story continued on short-term as well. Here too retests were happening with small volume after a big volume breakout.

I took a position in this @103. I kept a stop at 86.10. Going by the buying happened here in the 90-100 area, I was pretty confident that it would take a lot before it goes down and penetrate my stop. The Fibonacci projection on this was aligning with the resistance area near its top, so that felt like a good place to sell some position there.

As of now, this is roaming around its support area. The way volume has been playing around here, it has increased my confidence that it wouldn't penetrate downwards out of nowhere. This is at a good price right now if anyone is looking to make an entry here.
Update on this position-

I have just sold another 20% of this position @8900. On short-term this is making a small range which might get broken out on either side. So I just wanted to reduce my risk here. It looks like it would be breaking out this range upwards. Now I am running with 60% of the initial position.
Update on this position-

As I mentioned in my last post on this, it looked like BAJAJHLDNG would be breaking the short-term range in the upwards direction. Yesterday it held itself with market corrections. Today as the market bounced back, this broke-out of the range and gave a good spike. I sold another 20% today @9270.
As of now, I am holding 40% of my initial position. I will try to trail this and reap as much from the ongoing momentum.
ESABINDIA was another position that I bought sometimes back. It didn't turn out to be a winner and I sold it out with some loss. Here is the analysis I did before entering this stock-

1. With really bullish long-term rally, this was doing some correction in its price. This came as a retest on the weekly swing point high bar. The breakout was pretty good and it had a decent probability of regeneration from there (around 67%).

2. If this would have regenerated, this would be coming up with strong momentum, as there were 5 swing point highs lined up to get broken.

I entered in this @5762.45. Unfortunately, this never regenerated from the weekly range and failed the retest. I sold my position @5290. There was no point of keeping it post that as the next support was there at around 4900. It was not the risk worth taking.
JINDALSTEL is another stock in my portfolio. This was my anaysis-

1. Long-term looked pretty strong. It did the healthy rally-consolidation-rally kind of flow.
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2. On intermediate and short term, this was breaking out. Breakout of a swing point on weekly and 3 swing points on daily charts. Generally if a stock is breaking out multiple swing points on multiple time frames, there is really high probability (around 82%) for the next rally to set in.
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Based on Fib projections, I am expecting this to go till at least 830. I have kept my stop at 711.90 as by that time it will fail all the swing points and anchoring support zones.
Update on this position-

This gave a good spike today and it is very near my expected target as the market is closing. I didn't want to take so much risk here, as it can open tomorrow with some pullback after this kind of spike. Hence I closed 33% of my position @824.
I'll be selling another 33% if it looks like it will open with weakness and can go for a retrace.

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