Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

[pranayk]

markets for 23 july 09

THE DAY SAW UPWARD BREACH OF THE CRITICAL LEVEL OF 4509 TO REACH THE GIVEN RESISTANCE OF 4555 FROM WHERE NIFTY KEPT ON FALLING CONTINUOUSLY TILL THE END OF THE DAY TO BREACH NOT ONLY TUESDAYS LOW OF 4437 BUT ALSO BREACHED MONDAYS TRADING LOWS OF 4412 AND CLOSED AT 4399 JUST TO GENERATE THE FEAR THAT 4400 HAS BEEN BREACHED ON A CLOSING BASIS. ACTUALLY, NIFTY JUST MANAGED TO BOUNCE UP FROM THE NECK LINE OF THE HEAD & SOLDER AND CLOSED JUST ABOVE THE NECK LINE. THURSDAY IS A CRUCIAL MAKE OR BREAK DAY, AS OPERATORS MAY TAKE NIFTY JUST BELOW THE NECK LINE THROUGH SHORTING OF INDEX HEAVY RELIANCE AGAIN TO TRIGGER THE H&S FORMATION THAT MAY SEE BULLS OFF LOADING WITH FEAR, AS NIFTY AFTER TRIGGERING THE NECK LINE AROUND 4370 TO 4360 MAY STRAIGHT FALL TILL 4222 TO 4205 LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH A CORRECTION WAS ANTICIPATED FROM 4555 LEVELS YET THERE WAS NO REASON FOR SUCH A BIG FALL IN A DAY TILL 4380, BUT IN THIS OPERATOR INFECTED MARKET, ONE SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE THE BREACH OF NECK LINE AROUND 4360 LEVELS TO SLIDE TOWARDS 4222 LEVELS TO CORRECT THE ENTIRE UP MOVE FROM 13TH JULY LOWS OF 3919 TILL 22 JULY HIGHS OF 4555.

TECHNICALLY, NIFTY SHOULD FIND SUPPORT AROUND 4400 TO 4380 LEVELS & THE TWO DAYS OF CORRECTION ONE SAW ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY OR ANOTHER DAY OF MILD CORRECTION OR FLAT TILL 4370 LEVELS ON THURSDAY, SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF THE CORRECTIONS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A GOOD BOUNCE TO CROSS JUNE HIGHS OF 4692.HOWEVER SHOULD NIFTY DECISIVELY BREACH THE NECK LINE AROUND 4370 LEVELS THEN CHANCES OF BIGGER FALLS TOWARDS 4200 LEVELS ARE VERY MUCH ON THE CARDS. SINCE INDIAN MARKETS HAVE NOT YET CROSSED JUNE HIGHS OF 4692 WHERE AS ALL OTHER ASIAN MARKETS & EVEN US MARKETS HAVE CROSSED JUNE HIGHS, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A SHARP & SURPRISE UP MOVE TO CROSS THE JUNE HIGHS PERHAPS JUST AROUND EXPIRY. MOST LIKELY ONE SHOULD EXPECT A GOOD BOUNCE ON THURSDAY

IF ONE HAS A CLOSER LOOK AT 5 MINUTE OR LOWER INTRADAY CHARTS OF NIFTY FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, ONE WILL NOTICE THAT NIFTY HAD LEFT A GAP BETWEEN 4390 & 4411 ON MONDAY. SO ONE CONSOLATION FOR THE BULLS MAY BE THAT NIFTY HAS COVERED THE GAP OF THE WEEK. SECONDLY IN THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, IMPORTANT INDICATOR SLOW STOCHASTIC IS SHOWING A +VE DIVERGENCE AS IT DID NOT MAKE A NEW LOW WHEN NIFTY MADE A NEW LOW AT 4380.SO INCASE WORLD MARKETS DO NOT DISAPPOINT BADLY ON THURSDAY, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A SHARP BOUNCE TO AT LEAST 38% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS.

FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON THURSDAY, NSE INDEX HAS INITIAL SUPPORT AROUND 4380 LEVELS FOLLOWED BY 4360 LEVELS.ON THE HIGHER SIDE ONE CAN EXPECT INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND 4420 TO 4430 LEVELS. INCASE NIFTY MANAGES TO CROSS 4455 LEVELS, THEN A SHARP BOUNCE TOWARDS 4500 CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO SHORT COVERING.

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 23 july 09

after 7 days of consecutive rise, dow last night went negative with a 34 point loss but still remained above the critical 8880 levels by closing at 8881 & as long as it maintains above 8800 levels it will continue with the bullish momentum. Similarly, s&p 500 closed absolutely flat & maintained above the critical 950 levels & a big up move may be seen once it crosses 960 levels. Tech heavy nasdaq as usual remained mildly +ve for the 11th day in a row. Brazil also closed flat by losing .3%. European markets were mildly bullish and uk ftse closed .3% up. Most of the asian markets after being +ve yesterday have opened flat & may remain flat to mildly weak or mildly bullish for the day.

For indian markets expect a mildly bullish opening around the levels of 4420 to 4430.there is a possibility of nifty moving up to 4450 levels where there may be a seesaw battle between the bulls and bears to regain control as this is also the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level from wednesdays high of 4557 till lows of 4381. A decisive breach of 4455 can take nifty towards 50% level as well as pivot level around 4470 levels followed by 61.8% level of 4490 or towards the levels 4500 again. However a failure to cross 4455 can bring down nifty initially towards 4396 followed by the make or break point of 4370 to 4360 to test the neck line of the h&s formation around 4370 to 4360 levels a breach of which can see a bigger fall. As the day progresses, the slopping neck line also will gradually slope further down and 4360 may not be the neck line at 2 pm. Most likely the neck line will be saved & nifty may move up after having 2 to 3 days of deserving correction which may end today for the resumption of another good up move .

Holders of lower calls as well as puts must continue to hold these along with yesterdays shorted higher calls and shorted lower puts as these shorted lower puts and shorted higher calls are going to reward the traders with their entire premium value as long as lower calls and higher puts are held by them.

 

[pranayk]

markets for 24 july 09


as expected, nifty bounced back with vigor after 2 days of well deserved correction & having closed at 4523 much above the closing high of 4502 of monday 20 july, looks extremely bullish for much sharper up move towards june highs of 4692.traders & investors must remember that other than operators action, there is no reason for indian markets to lag behind us, europe & other asian markets which have already crossed their june highs and day after day moving up. Decisive election verdict, very good budget, better than expected quarterly results, onset of monsoons after a delay & govts resolve to disinvest even profit making psus are all extremely bullish factors. So, one should be reasonably sure to see june highs of 15600 & 4692 to be crossed by both sensex and nifty in next 2 to 3 trading days or at the worst case by end of next week for much higher levels towards 16666 & 4808. So one can hold & take more long future positions in august series accordingly on every intraday decline for excellent gains in coming days. As long as wednesdays lows of 4380 is not breached on a closing basis, nifty will keep on making new highs.

For trading on friday, the only negative aspect may be that last week nifty had closed at 4375 & a close nearer to or above 4692 by nifty on this friday looks to be a bit more than expectation, well if us & asian markets can close in similar pattern why not indian markets? Technically the indices look extremely bullish for further up move after having decisively broken out of the slopping channel as per daily eod chart above. After cross over of the critical level at 4600, nifty can move up sharply to head for june highs of 4692.as long as nifty does not close below 22nd july lows of 4380,there is distinct possibility of nifty piercing june highs in next 2 to 3 days to move towards 4800+levels.

In the daily eod chart above, both macd line and the signal line have moved up & crossed the zero line which generally indicates sharp up move after every intraday decline. The weekly charts too have started to look more bullish that supports further up move. So, except for operators action as was seen on wednesday, one should see june highs of 4692 being crossed by nifty in next 1 or 2 days.

 

[pranayk]

weekly markets analysis for week ending 31july 09

as expected, the week ended with a bullish note & nifty gained over 4% compared to its previous week. Nifty too decisively crossed and closed above the critical level of 4480 that now becomes the foundation stone for further up move. Although horrible quarterly results by index heavy reliance may be a dampener for the week opening on monday 27th july, but it may just be an initial blip in the form of a gap down open that will be faded entirely. In any case, expecting a better result from highly politicized reliance during this election quarter would have been a bit too much. Well, the reliance effect will be there during the coming week but should not impact for more than a day or two as other index heavies will come to the rescue of the indices. The worst thing that can happen is, genuine long term investors will start to off load reliance as the on going long term legal battle on kg gas followed by such a disappointing result must have fractured the confidence of investors which reliance enjoyed since a long long time.
More important thing to look for during the week would be the world markets, specially us and other asian indices. Well, if us & asian markets continue to remain strong ,the dampening effect of index heavy reliance may be ignored entirely & the markets will continue to move up with just an intraday correction or at the worst could be a one day fall. There is no reason for indian markets to lag behind us, europe & other asian markets which have already crossed their june highs and are moving up day after day. Decisive election verdict, very good budget, better than expected quarterly results by many, onset of monsoons after a delay & govts resolve to disinvest even profit making psus are all extremely bullish factors. So, one should be reasonably sure to see june highs of 15600 & 4692 to be crossed by both sensex and nifty by end of the coming week.
As us & other asian markets are looking extremely bullish & there are no negative news from home front, except disappointing numbers from a few companies, every intraday correction or gap down open should be made full use of to buy into for the target of 4700 to 4800 levels in coming days. As long as critical levels around 4380 or more importantly 4350 is not breached on a closing basis, traders may continue to trade on the longer side of the markets for target of 4700. A decisive down side breach of 4450 on a closing basis on any day during the week, may be the first warning signal to take evasive measures by the bulls, as a fall below this critical level of 4450 can clear the path for nifty to easily slide towards 4380 to 4350 levels from where solid bounce can be expected. On the higher side, the only resistance one can find at this moment is the june highs of 4693 to 4750 levels. Well, if the things dont deteriorate any further, nifty may maintain a daily closing level above 4500.



weekly technicals for week ending 31 july 09

a rise of more than 4% during the week has added strength to the weekly indicators. Weekly stochastic has turned up before entering the lower zone & if it does nor turn about to go into the lower zone, then one can expect big move towards 4800 levels. Weekly macd continues to generate bullish signals so as weekly rsi at the value of 66.weekly cci & roc turning up before entering zero levels add further strength to the weekly charts. In the long term weekly chart of 15 years,50 ema at 3785 high above 200 week ema at 3654 that too nifty trading high above both these emas is the strongest signal for long term bullishness of indian markets & should not be ignored.
In the daily eod charts, macd and rsi generate strong signals for further up move with daily macd line & its signal line having moved up to cross the zero line & this zero line cross over generally indicates much longer up move. Daily rsi at 62+ levels having generated a reverse h&s formation indicates further up move. Daily stochastic is likely to generate an explosive upward signal if it turns up from 78% levels to re enter into the upper 80% zone.50 day simple moving average at 4348 high above the 200 dma at 3366 and 50 day exponential moving average at 4192 high above 200 day ema at 3783 along with nifty having successfully bounced back from the cross over point of 20 dma and 50 dma having breached it during early july, are strong bullish signals that will generally arrest any intraday big fall or even any fall for more than 2 consecutive days.
As per chart patterns, if one looks at the daily closing chart of nifty and join the daily closing points of 29th june at 4391,3rd july at 4424,20 july at 4502 and 23 july at 4524,one will clearly notice a perfect reverse h&s formation with head around 13 july closing levels of 3975 & whose closing neck line around 4525 has been breached on 24th july when nifty closed at 4568. Although nifty will surely fall below the neck line to retest it, but another bounce up from below the neck line to move up to cross it again will generate a mega bullish signal for another 600+ points rally from the neck line at 4525 towards 5100+ levels in coming days. However traders are advised to be a bit cautious while dealing with h&s formations as well as gaps to avoid disappointments as had happened to the gap as well as the h&s formations during the mid july fall when neither the election verdict day big gap was filled nor the h&s formation was completed. In fact taking a reverse view to the general concept on gaps and h&s formations are yielding better results now a days.
Overall, one can expect another bullish week to retest the june highs of 4692 & cross it by end of this week or early next week with traces of a day or two of correction in between.
Elliott wave count for week ending 31 july 09 the fresh up move that has started from 13 july low of 3919 may have 2 possibilities. The first could be it moves up & up as 3rd up wave of the bull run that had started from 6th march lows of 2539 with 1st wave having been completed at 12th june high of 4692 followed by abc zigzag correction till 13th july lows of 3919.this 3rd up wave from the lows of 3919 may traverse a distance of about 1.62 times the length of first wave which was of 2153, meaning the present 3rd up wave can move up till 7404 nifty levels. Even if this 3rd wave moves the distance equal to 1st wave, then this present 3rd wave may move up till 6072. Although any of these possibilities looks to be a bit ambitious, yet highly possible. This 3rd wave will have 5 sub waves 3 up & 2 down. Till friday 24th july, nifty is still within the 1st up sub leg of this 3rd wave.

The 2nd probability could be that nifty tries to test the 12th june high of 4692 or just falls short of it or may have a deceptive break out move as a bull trap above 4692 levels to fall again till about 3900 to 4000 levels to form a 3,3,5 flat to resume the bull run after completion of the flat. With the mid august crash in mind, perhaps the last down leg of the flat towards 4000 to 3900 levels may coincide with the august crash. Well, time only will dictate which of the possibilities nifty may follow in coming days.



fibonacci levels for the week ending 31 july 09

during last week, nifty had made a trading low of 4379 and a high of 4579 covering a total distance of 200 points. In case of a downward correction from fridays high of 4579, various support levels to which nifty can retrace are:-- 38.2% till 4502, a 50% till 4479 and a 61.2% can bring it down till 4455 levels.

However if one takes the move from 13th july lows of 3919 till 24 july high of 4579 which was the up move of 660 points, then in case of a downward move nifty can retrace 38.2% till 4326,50% till 4249 and 61.8% till 4171 levels.



weekly trading range for week ending 31 july 09

broad trading range for the week may be the pivot point area around 4505 to 4494 on the lower side and 4600 on the higher side. On the lower side a decisive breach of 4494 can bring down nifty to next important support around 4455 levels where solid buying is likely to emerge. However a decisive breach of 4455 on a closing basis can pull down nifty towards last weeks lows of 4380 levels. Being the expiry week,a breach of june highs of 4600 may be tough on the higher side. However a decisive breach of 4600 on the higher side can take nifty towards june highs of 4693 levels.

Nifty has a strong daily closing support around 3398 to 4400 levels and a closing resistance around 4655 levels.

 

[pranayk]

markets for 27 july 09

the expiry week opens on monday at the back drop of bullish momentum generated during last two weeks coupled with a stiff competition with other world markets to cross june highs of 15600 & 4693,the june highs have been decisively crossed by us, european & most of the asian markets leaving behind indian markets completely baffled. In fact a few weeks earlier, indian markets had taken a lead & others world markets were following indian markets & now in spite of all the good news around, indian markets have lagged behind other world markets. Most likely this week will see the indices crossing june highs of 15600 & 4693 levels. Shocking results by index heavy reliance may only delay the indices from achieving their higher targets but will not deny it. In fact a reliance induced opening fall in indices must be bought into for good gains in coming days.

For intraday trading on monday, the opening will highly be dependant on the condition of asian markets around indian opening time of 9.55am.most likely chinese markets will correct on monday, having gone up to extremely higher levels & even taiwan markets may correct a bit. For nifty, expect strong support to come around 4545 levels followed by 4515 or even 4505 from where one can expect solid bounce if at all nifty falls to this level of 4505 brought down by index heavy reliance. On the higher side 4580 followed by 4606 are resistance zones a decisive breach of which can take nifty initially towards 4655 followed by june highs of 4693,just short of which, solid intraday profit booking may emerge.

With andrews pitchfork median line (indicated by thin black line in the chart above) indicating a target of 4800 +levels in short term, traders may buy futures on any big intraday decline of nifty for very good gains, with quit point around 4455 to 4444 levels. Nifty may fall initially to rise later on the day and a decisive cross over of 4585 may see a sharp jump upwards. Metals & infra stocks still have a lot of steam in them for further up move to much higher levels, so buy these on every decline.

 

[devrishi81]

thnks pranayk

 

[pranayk]

morning update at 8 am 27 july 09

with a buoyant opening in asian markets one should have expected a gap up opening in indian markets, but index heavy reliance may spoil the party for the bulls. So, in case of a bullish opening one can see a sudden fall as the companies with weak results & having some weight on the index may pull down the indices at least during start. However after only an hour or two, markets will stabilize & show the actual direction or the markets may move up from the start with intraday volatility.

Not withstanding the above effects of results on the indices, the markets on their own look extremely bullish to move up to new yearly highs of 15600 & 4693. In case of a fall in initial hours, traders should use this opportunity to buy futures, 4500 and 4400 calls to remain long till expiry with quit point around 4450 index levels. In case markets fall initially, there is a possibility of a sharp rise after the fall. After the initial open, the trading range may be within 4515 on the lower side and 4600+ levels on the higher side.

 

[dare2]

morning update at 8 am 27 july 09

with a buoyant opening in asian markets one should have expected a gap up opening in indian markets, but index heavy reliance may spoil the party for the bulls. So, in case of a bullish opening one can see a sudden fall as the companies with weak results & having some weight on the index may pull down the indices at least during start. However after only an hour or two, markets will stabilize & show the actual direction or the markets may move up from the start with intraday volatility.

Not withstanding the above effects of results on the indices, the markets on their own look extremely bullish to move up to new yearly highs of 15600 & 4693. In case of a fall in initial hours, traders should use this opportunity to buy futures, 4500 and 4400 calls to remain long till expiry with quit point around 4450 index levels. In case markets fall initially, there is a possibility of a sharp rise after the fall. After the initial open, the trading range may be within 4515 on the lower side and 4600+ levels on the higher side.

hats off to u man.. keep up da good work..

 

[pranayk]

hats off to u man.. keep up da good work..

I was thinking of discontinuing this thread, but due to your kind of reader and your motivational words prompting me to write in this thread forever.....

Thanks for the compliment

 

[devrishi81]

cud u also please give some tips on stocks!!!!!!!! that will be very useful...thx