Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level

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pranayk

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#451
#451
plan of action for the week ending 30 october 09

as long as nse index is unable to cross 5060, intraday traders may boldly short nifty futures with strict quit point around 5066 index levels. Further shorts may be added in case index falls below 4980 or 4969 for a smooth sliding visit towards the area around 4900 levels. Similarly in case nse index moves above 5060, intraday traders can quickly quit shorted nifty futures and quickly change gear to double long to have a joyride to retest 5151 or higher levels.

As far as possible, traders must avoid short positions in stock futures as chances of getting trapped in stock futures are quite bright. Many pharma, real estate, cement & metal & major auto stock futures look extremely oversold in daily charts and can be bought in november series on further decline of index for good gains, as the recovery after this pause is likely to be super fast in these beaten down sectors.
 
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pranayk

Well-Known Member
#452
#452
markets for 26 oct

the new week after 2 consecutive truncated weeks, opens with the dow fear of its 109 point fall on friday night, to which asian markets as usual will react in the morning of monday after having enjoyed a good rise on friday morning due to dows deceptive 131 point rise on thursday night. Sensing the deceptive nature of dows 131 point rise on thursday, indian punters as usual did not move in line with other asian markets on friday and after the low volume gap up open till 5052, continuously fell to close flat. In addition to these depressing cues from asian markets, deceptive negative dow futures and highly operator infected sgx nifty will add their quota of misery on monday morning at least during the open.

For intraday trading on monday, actually there is nothing to panic. A rise of nse index even above 5015 may bring the first opportunity to go long till 5040 or 5050 levels and should nifty breach 5060 then intraday traders may go outright long for great gains. Similarly on the lower side, like friday, if nse index is unable to cross the critical level of 5060 than traders may boldly short nifty with strict quit point around 5066 index levels. A fall below 4982 should encourage intraday traders to ruthlessly add more shorts in nifty futures with strict quit point around 5015 index levels. In case of a breach of 4982, nse index may find next support around 4955 to 4944 levels.

In the daily candle stick charts, nifty was an inside bar on friday. Hence the thursdays out side bar high around 5052 and low around 4969 are critical levels to look for by candle stick traders to trade long above or below these levels. Secondly, last week between tuesday and thursday, 3 black crows formation should see some good upward retracement this week. 2 good pin bars on 24th sept and on 6th october with their lows at 4904 & 4921 should puncture the energy centers of the bulls if these lows are decisively breached on any day. In the hourly chart above, +ve divergence in stochastic and cci may restrict the bear onslaught to some extent on monday to plan for a planets favored rise on tuesday to be triggered by sweet & market friendly words from rbi governor. Oversold pharma, auto & infra stocks may be accumulated on every decline on monday for good gains in a day or two.
 
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pranayk

Well-Known Member
#458
#458
morning update at 8 am 26 oct 09

quite surprisingly asian markets have defied dows fall of 109 points on friday and opened strongly in the morning, however it has to bee seen whether asian markets are able to sustain the early morning rise for the rest of the day. Most likely, before opening of indian markets, most of these asian markets would have shed most of their morning gains specially china & hong kong are likely to trade in red.

For indian markets, one can expect a flat to mildly bullish opening. Most of the big players will try to roll over today so there is a strong possibility of a highly volatile market on monday. From last tuesdays high of 5181 in 3 trading days nifty has fallen to a low of 5068 and on friday nifty closed towards the lower end around 4998. So logically there is every possibility of a sharp rebound on monday or tuesday. For intraday trading on monday, traders may buy nifty futures if nse index crosses 5015 for a target till 5040 with quit point below index level of 4980. However if nifty manages to cross 5060 to 5064 then massive short covering may take nse index towards 5080 or even towards 5100 levels. Traders may short nifty future around 5050 levels with strict quit point around index level of 5060 or 5066.

Badly beaten down stocks in the sectors of cement, pharma, auto & metals which have nearly bottomed out in both daily & weekly charts may show a sharp bounce during this week. on intraday declines, traders may buy futures of acc, grasim, ranbaxy, cipla maruti, tata motor and tatasteel. Other blue chips like reliance, l&t & ongc after the initial sluggishness are likely to rebound sharply. On every decline, medium to long term investors may buy these bluest of blue chips for good long term gains
 
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manzzu

New Member
#459
#459
Dear Pranay,

It was very strange to see how Nifty opened weak as against SGX in the morning. What would that mean. If you could please shed some light please.

Best Wishes,
Manju
 
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