Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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Hi,
I came across your thread just today. Liked the charts.
Your views today were good.
I am sure that, if your views more or less coincide with market movements and if they are regularly updated, then there will be others too who will appreciate your efforts.
-ritesh.
I came across your thread just today. Liked the charts.
Your views today were good.
I am sure that, if your views more or less coincide with market movements and if they are regularly updated, then there will be others too who will appreciate your efforts.
-ritesh.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 10th july 09
finally the pre budget week ended with the resumption of bullishness that too after a 223 point fall in dow the night before. As earlier said many a times, indian markets are itching to move up and a gap down open on any day is just the right opportunity to get into buying mode. With the union budget on monday 6th july, most likely the budget will be such that it will not disappoint the stock market community. Anything better than expectation can generate a sharp up move from 7th jan as the resumption of bull run towards 5000+ nifty levels. Even if the budget is lukewarm, markets are not likely to crash, but will be in line with other asian & emerging markets. Only a highly disappointing budget which is most unlikely, then only the critical nifty level, the june low of 4141 will be threatened, a breach of which only can spell danger for the markets. So, under the worst of circumstances, as long as the critical level at 4141 is held and nifty does not close below this levels, there should be no danger for the bulls.
If everything goes well, then one should not be surprised to see june high of 4693 getting breached during the early part of the week to head towards the much hyped 4789 which is the fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the bull market high of 6357 till bear market low of 2252. Most likely this level may not carry any significance once nifty decisively closes above 4693 levels. Excellent railway budget, onset of monsoons, revival in asian markets are +ve indications to expect a bullish week ahead. From the high of 4693 made on 12th june 09, nifty corrected for 2 weeks till 23rd june low of 4141. Now nifty has gradually inched up for two +ve weeks and budget may give the required fillip for the sharp up move to shoot past the june high of 4693 to head towards 5000+ levels.
weekly technicals for week ending 10th july 09
this was the second bullish week for indian markets after the 23rd june lows of 4141. Technically the markets are looking strong again after the decisive close on friday above 20 day moving average around 4400 levels. Since 17th june, nifty had fallen below this level of 20 dma. Nifty now safely trading over both 50 dma at 4141 and 200 dma at 3369 confirms the medium term bullish outlook for markets.50 dma crossing 200 dma and the indices safely trading above 20,50 & 200 dma gives added strength to the indices that should encourage one to buy on every decline. All the daily indicators like slow stochastic, rsi, macd, roc have started to generate mega bullish signals again.
In the weekly charts, nifty is trading safely above 20,50 & 200 week simple moving averages.20 week moving average at 3595 has breached 50 week moving average at 3474 which confirms the medium term bullishness of indian markets.50 week moving average is moving up fast to breach the 200 week moving average at 3870.in the 15 years long term weekly charts,50 week exponential moving average at 3715 has decisively breached the 200 week ema at 3636 that confirms the long term bullishness of indian markets. Weekly indicators like macd, rsi & adx are still generating bullish signals. However weekly slows stochastic looks a shade weaker that may turn upwards after another week of up move post the budget.
So, overall, the daily indicators are giving highly bullish signals & weekly indicators are giving mixed to neutral signals that may also turn upwards after the markets move up post budget announcements. Nifty in the short term, medium term & long term look highly bullish & only a big fall which can only come after a weak or socking budget can drastically change the bullish short term outlook.
elliott wave count for week ending
10th july 09 as per elliott wave count, the 1st wave that commenced from 6th march low of 2539 went up till 6th may high of 3717. 2nd wave was till 14th may low of 3535. The 1st up sub wave of 3rd wave went up till 19th may high of 4509.from then on till the low of 4092, then the high of 4693, and finally to the low of 4141 on 23rd june was perhaps the 3,3,5 consolidation 2nd sub wave flat.
From 23 june low of 4141 perhaps fresh up move as 3rd up sub wave of 3rd main up wave has started. A decisive cross over of 4535 can confirm this view to shoot past 4693 for much higher levels as 3rd sub wave of 3rd up wave is the largest up sub wave.
fibonacci levels for the week ending 10th july 09
we will confine our fibonacci levels to the 12 june high of 4693 and 23rd june of 4143 a difference of 550 points. A 38.2% upward retracement level is at 4353 which was finally crossed on friday 3rd july, after many failed attempts.50% retracement is at 4418 which too was breached on friday 3rd july and nifty has closed above it at 4424.the next important 61.8% retracement comes at 4483 which most likely will be crossed if the budget goes as per expectations. Another important fibonacci retracement to be kept in mind is the 61.8% upward retracement of the entire bear market which comes around 4789 where some pause may be expected to please bears.
weekly trading range for week ending 10th july 09
the trading levels will depend on the important factor of budget announcement on monday, how good or bad is the budget or if it is just an ok budget. If the budget is really good and beats the expectations then expect a 200 point rise on tuesday to shoot past 4700 in the early part of the day. In that case nifty may touch 5000 levels by mid july. The events leading to budget suggests that this is the most likely scenario .
Secondly if the budget is just ok or neutral, then even markets will move up but in a slow pace, halting at recent highs of 4693 then 4789, a bigger flat formation may take place and the markets will move in line with other asian & emerging markets.
Thirdly, if the budget does not meet the expectation of budget analysts, then expect a sharp fall to immediate support of 4141 followed by threatening of critical low at 4092.so, on a wider range nifty likely to be confined within 4141 on the lower side in case of a lukewarm or so so budget and in case of a good and investor friendly and forward looking budget may initially test 4747 & then move up towards 4907 to 4957.traders should look out for the critical resistance around 15022 & 4536 levels for sensex & nifty .if this critical level is decisively breached by the indices, then expect much much higher levels for sensex & nifty towards 16666 & 4900 levels forgetting recent highs of 15600 & 4697 or even fibonacci resistance at 4789
vv
finally the pre budget week ended with the resumption of bullishness that too after a 223 point fall in dow the night before. As earlier said many a times, indian markets are itching to move up and a gap down open on any day is just the right opportunity to get into buying mode. With the union budget on monday 6th july, most likely the budget will be such that it will not disappoint the stock market community. Anything better than expectation can generate a sharp up move from 7th jan as the resumption of bull run towards 5000+ nifty levels. Even if the budget is lukewarm, markets are not likely to crash, but will be in line with other asian & emerging markets. Only a highly disappointing budget which is most unlikely, then only the critical nifty level, the june low of 4141 will be threatened, a breach of which only can spell danger for the markets. So, under the worst of circumstances, as long as the critical level at 4141 is held and nifty does not close below this levels, there should be no danger for the bulls.
If everything goes well, then one should not be surprised to see june high of 4693 getting breached during the early part of the week to head towards the much hyped 4789 which is the fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the bull market high of 6357 till bear market low of 2252. Most likely this level may not carry any significance once nifty decisively closes above 4693 levels. Excellent railway budget, onset of monsoons, revival in asian markets are +ve indications to expect a bullish week ahead. From the high of 4693 made on 12th june 09, nifty corrected for 2 weeks till 23rd june low of 4141. Now nifty has gradually inched up for two +ve weeks and budget may give the required fillip for the sharp up move to shoot past the june high of 4693 to head towards 5000+ levels.
weekly technicals for week ending 10th july 09
this was the second bullish week for indian markets after the 23rd june lows of 4141. Technically the markets are looking strong again after the decisive close on friday above 20 day moving average around 4400 levels. Since 17th june, nifty had fallen below this level of 20 dma. Nifty now safely trading over both 50 dma at 4141 and 200 dma at 3369 confirms the medium term bullish outlook for markets.50 dma crossing 200 dma and the indices safely trading above 20,50 & 200 dma gives added strength to the indices that should encourage one to buy on every decline. All the daily indicators like slow stochastic, rsi, macd, roc have started to generate mega bullish signals again.
In the weekly charts, nifty is trading safely above 20,50 & 200 week simple moving averages.20 week moving average at 3595 has breached 50 week moving average at 3474 which confirms the medium term bullishness of indian markets.50 week moving average is moving up fast to breach the 200 week moving average at 3870.in the 15 years long term weekly charts,50 week exponential moving average at 3715 has decisively breached the 200 week ema at 3636 that confirms the long term bullishness of indian markets. Weekly indicators like macd, rsi & adx are still generating bullish signals. However weekly slows stochastic looks a shade weaker that may turn upwards after another week of up move post the budget.
So, overall, the daily indicators are giving highly bullish signals & weekly indicators are giving mixed to neutral signals that may also turn upwards after the markets move up post budget announcements. Nifty in the short term, medium term & long term look highly bullish & only a big fall which can only come after a weak or socking budget can drastically change the bullish short term outlook.
elliott wave count for week ending
10th july 09 as per elliott wave count, the 1st wave that commenced from 6th march low of 2539 went up till 6th may high of 3717. 2nd wave was till 14th may low of 3535. The 1st up sub wave of 3rd wave went up till 19th may high of 4509.from then on till the low of 4092, then the high of 4693, and finally to the low of 4141 on 23rd june was perhaps the 3,3,5 consolidation 2nd sub wave flat.
From 23 june low of 4141 perhaps fresh up move as 3rd up sub wave of 3rd main up wave has started. A decisive cross over of 4535 can confirm this view to shoot past 4693 for much higher levels as 3rd sub wave of 3rd up wave is the largest up sub wave.
fibonacci levels for the week ending 10th july 09
we will confine our fibonacci levels to the 12 june high of 4693 and 23rd june of 4143 a difference of 550 points. A 38.2% upward retracement level is at 4353 which was finally crossed on friday 3rd july, after many failed attempts.50% retracement is at 4418 which too was breached on friday 3rd july and nifty has closed above it at 4424.the next important 61.8% retracement comes at 4483 which most likely will be crossed if the budget goes as per expectations. Another important fibonacci retracement to be kept in mind is the 61.8% upward retracement of the entire bear market which comes around 4789 where some pause may be expected to please bears.
weekly trading range for week ending 10th july 09
the trading levels will depend on the important factor of budget announcement on monday, how good or bad is the budget or if it is just an ok budget. If the budget is really good and beats the expectations then expect a 200 point rise on tuesday to shoot past 4700 in the early part of the day. In that case nifty may touch 5000 levels by mid july. The events leading to budget suggests that this is the most likely scenario .
Secondly if the budget is just ok or neutral, then even markets will move up but in a slow pace, halting at recent highs of 4693 then 4789, a bigger flat formation may take place and the markets will move in line with other asian & emerging markets.
Thirdly, if the budget does not meet the expectation of budget analysts, then expect a sharp fall to immediate support of 4141 followed by threatening of critical low at 4092.so, on a wider range nifty likely to be confined within 4141 on the lower side in case of a lukewarm or so so budget and in case of a good and investor friendly and forward looking budget may initially test 4747 & then move up towards 4907 to 4957.traders should look out for the critical resistance around 15022 & 4536 levels for sensex & nifty .if this critical level is decisively breached by the indices, then expect much much higher levels for sensex & nifty towards 16666 & 4900 levels forgetting recent highs of 15600 & 4697 or even fibonacci resistance at 4789
vv
markets for 06 july 09
the week 0pens with the great hope on the union budget announcements on monday. The consolidation pattern in the form of an upward leaning 3,3,5 flat with highs at 4693 and low at 4093 will most likely be breached either on monday or tuesday, whether up side break out towards 4900 or down ward breach of 4093 will be confirmed only after the budget. Since the consolidation flat has taken place after the up move from 3700 levels, there is every possibility of the break out on the upside towards 4900 levels. However nothing can be confirmed at this stage.
For trading on monday, the opening may be flat to mildly bullish & nifty will gather momentum after initial announcements by the fm. However till such time the budget speech is completed and analysts have given their opinion, nothing can be ascertained. However one thing is certain that a lot of benefits will come to infrastructure, education, oil & gas exploration & transmission & power generation sectors implying stocks of infra, steel, power, oil & gas & their transmission & even cement will gain substantially after a good budget announcement. Traders may accumulate these stocks on every intraday decline.
For nifty traders, long position holders hedged with 4200 puts must hold on to the longs and puts. For option traders holding both calls & puts may continue to hold both calls & puts and add more calls of 4500 & 4600 incase budget leans towards bullishness. In case by end of the budget the analysts opine it to be a very good budget, then traders must quit puts or short lower puts and add more futures and calls and carry even if the price is high. Similarly if the budget is bad, non progressive & below expectation, then quickly quit longs and calls and revert to shorting mode with more puts and write higher calls & carry shorts & puts.
For intraday trading purpose, nifty has initial support around 4408 breach of which may bring it down till 4379,4340.with a poor budget this level will break in no time to slide towards 4250,4141 by tuesday. On the higher side nifty faces initial resistance around 4440, but with good budget it can easily move to 4466 followed by 4535 in no time to head straight for 4693 on tuesday 7th july to even cross 4800.
the week 0pens with the great hope on the union budget announcements on monday. The consolidation pattern in the form of an upward leaning 3,3,5 flat with highs at 4693 and low at 4093 will most likely be breached either on monday or tuesday, whether up side break out towards 4900 or down ward breach of 4093 will be confirmed only after the budget. Since the consolidation flat has taken place after the up move from 3700 levels, there is every possibility of the break out on the upside towards 4900 levels. However nothing can be confirmed at this stage.
For trading on monday, the opening may be flat to mildly bullish & nifty will gather momentum after initial announcements by the fm. However till such time the budget speech is completed and analysts have given their opinion, nothing can be ascertained. However one thing is certain that a lot of benefits will come to infrastructure, education, oil & gas exploration & transmission & power generation sectors implying stocks of infra, steel, power, oil & gas & their transmission & even cement will gain substantially after a good budget announcement. Traders may accumulate these stocks on every intraday decline.
For nifty traders, long position holders hedged with 4200 puts must hold on to the longs and puts. For option traders holding both calls & puts may continue to hold both calls & puts and add more calls of 4500 & 4600 incase budget leans towards bullishness. In case by end of the budget the analysts opine it to be a very good budget, then traders must quit puts or short lower puts and add more futures and calls and carry even if the price is high. Similarly if the budget is bad, non progressive & below expectation, then quickly quit longs and calls and revert to shorting mode with more puts and write higher calls & carry shorts & puts.
For intraday trading purpose, nifty has initial support around 4408 breach of which may bring it down till 4379,4340.with a poor budget this level will break in no time to slide towards 4250,4141 by tuesday. On the higher side nifty faces initial resistance around 4440, but with good budget it can easily move to 4466 followed by 4535 in no time to head straight for 4693 on tuesday 7th july to even cross 4800.
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morning update at 8 am 06 july 09
markets may open flat to mildly weak on monday morning & as the budget speech starts one may find volatility in the markets.as the markets come down, traders not having any call may buy nifty future, 4400 or 4500 call and hold these till reasonable rise in markets as per budget announcements. As the markets go up traders may add 4200 puts by holding on to the calls & futures or book profit in half the futures & calls and hold te other half future & calls along with the puts.. By 3 pm one will be reasonably sure as to the direction of markets after the budget announcement and accordingly one can quit & hold for tuesday.
In case the budgets announcements tend to go in the bullish directions & with favorable announcements on these sectors, traders & investors may start to accumulate unitech, tatasteel, welspun gujrat, everon, educomp, cement stocks like grasim & acc on every decline for very good gains in coming days.
markets may open flat to mildly weak on monday morning & as the budget speech starts one may find volatility in the markets.as the markets come down, traders not having any call may buy nifty future, 4400 or 4500 call and hold these till reasonable rise in markets as per budget announcements. As the markets go up traders may add 4200 puts by holding on to the calls & futures or book profit in half the futures & calls and hold te other half future & calls along with the puts.. By 3 pm one will be reasonably sure as to the direction of markets after the budget announcement and accordingly one can quit & hold for tuesday.
In case the budgets announcements tend to go in the bullish directions & with favorable announcements on these sectors, traders & investors may start to accumulate unitech, tatasteel, welspun gujrat, everon, educomp, cement stocks like grasim & acc on every decline for very good gains in coming days.
markets for 07 july 09
well, the budget came & went but left its mark of disappointment as a result of which the indices fell by 870 & 258 points. Both sensex & nifty breached the critical support at 14016 & 4141 by reaching the lows of 13959 & 4134 but closed at 14043 & 4166 slightly above the critical support. Now the last & final support after this is the 26th may lows of 13519 & 4092 which if breached will trigger a big head & solder formation that can take the indices to cover the entire gap till 12256 & 3710 respectively.
Now whatever excess up move was there in indian markets after the election verdict, may be compensated by the post budget fall. However till such time both sensex & nifty do not decisively breach the lows at 13519 & 4092,the indices can always bounce up to resume the bull run and the big fall on 6th july may form part of a bigger consolidation in the form of a flat with the retest of lows at 13519 & 4092.however looking at the chart pattern after the budget fall, it now looks quite clear that a,b & c zigzag type of correction is in the making and indices are now in the c part of the down correction that can take the indices below the critical levels towards 12256 & 3710.
Till the budget day, the markets were moving on their own ignoring the world markets. After the budget fall, the back bone of the markets seems to have been fractured and indian markets may now depend on world markets for their up or down move. So, the critical make or break level to be watched on tuesday are 13519 & 4092 for sensex & nifty respectively whether the markets will fall badly to cover the entire gap till 12256 & 3710 or bounce from the critical levels of 13519 & 4092.actually speaking, the budget is not that bad to warrant such a big fall & one never knows, markets may bounce after the initial fall on tuesday?
For intraday trading on tuesday 7th july, with weak asian markets nifty may slide to test the critical 50 day moving average around 4157 breach of which can take nifty down to test mondays low of 4136 followed by 50 day exponential moving average around 4115. A breach of 4115 can bring down nifty to the make or break support at 4092 levels that should find strong buying support as the markets were over sold on monday itself. On the higher side nifty finds initial resistance around 4210 followed by 4258 levels. Above 4258 nifty will get into bullish momentum to reach 4292 levels a cross over of which will see huge short covering that can propel nifty towards 4366 or even 4400+ levels again. World markets will hold the key as to which way nifty will move on tuesday, most likely upwards.
well, the budget came & went but left its mark of disappointment as a result of which the indices fell by 870 & 258 points. Both sensex & nifty breached the critical support at 14016 & 4141 by reaching the lows of 13959 & 4134 but closed at 14043 & 4166 slightly above the critical support. Now the last & final support after this is the 26th may lows of 13519 & 4092 which if breached will trigger a big head & solder formation that can take the indices to cover the entire gap till 12256 & 3710 respectively.
Now whatever excess up move was there in indian markets after the election verdict, may be compensated by the post budget fall. However till such time both sensex & nifty do not decisively breach the lows at 13519 & 4092,the indices can always bounce up to resume the bull run and the big fall on 6th july may form part of a bigger consolidation in the form of a flat with the retest of lows at 13519 & 4092.however looking at the chart pattern after the budget fall, it now looks quite clear that a,b & c zigzag type of correction is in the making and indices are now in the c part of the down correction that can take the indices below the critical levels towards 12256 & 3710.
Till the budget day, the markets were moving on their own ignoring the world markets. After the budget fall, the back bone of the markets seems to have been fractured and indian markets may now depend on world markets for their up or down move. So, the critical make or break level to be watched on tuesday are 13519 & 4092 for sensex & nifty respectively whether the markets will fall badly to cover the entire gap till 12256 & 3710 or bounce from the critical levels of 13519 & 4092.actually speaking, the budget is not that bad to warrant such a big fall & one never knows, markets may bounce after the initial fall on tuesday?
For intraday trading on tuesday 7th july, with weak asian markets nifty may slide to test the critical 50 day moving average around 4157 breach of which can take nifty down to test mondays low of 4136 followed by 50 day exponential moving average around 4115. A breach of 4115 can bring down nifty to the make or break support at 4092 levels that should find strong buying support as the markets were over sold on monday itself. On the higher side nifty finds initial resistance around 4210 followed by 4258 levels. Above 4258 nifty will get into bullish momentum to reach 4292 levels a cross over of which will see huge short covering that can propel nifty towards 4366 or even 4400+ levels again. World markets will hold the key as to which way nifty will move on tuesday, most likely upwards.
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Morning update at 8 am 07 july 09
last night after initial fall to the critical support level of 8205,dow managed to remain above june lows & dow bounced back to 8327 to finally close 44 points up. European markets which had closed when dow was negative, finally closed 1% to 1.5% down with uk ftse closing down by 1%. Brazil too recovered to close .6% down. Asian markets have opened flat to mixed and may remain mixed for the day. Chinese markets having gone up continuously for so many days may correct in coming days
for indian markets after the big fall on monday when sensex and nifty closed at 14043 & 4166, had the lowest closings after 26th may 09 closing levels of 13589 & 4117. So, on tuesday 7th july, there is a possibility of some recovery. However the recovery if at all comes, may not be that strong enough to take the indices out of danger. Most likely the critical levels of 26th may intraday lows at 13519 & 4092 will be protected today. Although the present levels of indices are ideal conditions to buy for the long term, future traders are advised to resort to intraday trading only and should avoid carry over of long or short positions over night.
Although explanation of the budget fine print by the finance ministry authorities are encouraging & may see a mild bounce in the markets, yet, till such time sensex & nifty do not decisively cross and trade above the critical levels of 14477 & 4292, there will always be the fear of fall to breach the make or break support at 13519 & 4092 levels in coming days, in case international markets slide at the back of weak us markets.
last night after initial fall to the critical support level of 8205,dow managed to remain above june lows & dow bounced back to 8327 to finally close 44 points up. European markets which had closed when dow was negative, finally closed 1% to 1.5% down with uk ftse closing down by 1%. Brazil too recovered to close .6% down. Asian markets have opened flat to mixed and may remain mixed for the day. Chinese markets having gone up continuously for so many days may correct in coming days
for indian markets after the big fall on monday when sensex and nifty closed at 14043 & 4166, had the lowest closings after 26th may 09 closing levels of 13589 & 4117. So, on tuesday 7th july, there is a possibility of some recovery. However the recovery if at all comes, may not be that strong enough to take the indices out of danger. Most likely the critical levels of 26th may intraday lows at 13519 & 4092 will be protected today. Although the present levels of indices are ideal conditions to buy for the long term, future traders are advised to resort to intraday trading only and should avoid carry over of long or short positions over night.
Although explanation of the budget fine print by the finance ministry authorities are encouraging & may see a mild bounce in the markets, yet, till such time sensex & nifty do not decisively cross and trade above the critical levels of 14477 & 4292, there will always be the fear of fall to breach the make or break support at 13519 & 4092 levels in coming days, in case international markets slide at the back of weak us markets.
markets for 08 july 09
on tuesday nifty managed to inch up a little, as a face saving bounce after the big fall on the budget day. In fact nifty just managed to bounce back from the critical 50 day moving average around 4160 levels and made a flat type of consolidation. It is generally known that a flat formation after the big fall generally takes the market downwards. So on wednesday, in case nifty breaches 4180 levels then there is every possibility of retest of mondays lows of 4131 levels a breach of which may weaken nifty further to test the make or break support at 4092 that will decide the fate of nifty whether to enter the gap zone to complete the gap till 3710 in next few days or bounce back after retest of the critical level of 4092 to resume the bull run. Unless there are definite market saving actions, one should be reasonably sure to see the gap zone getting filled in coming days. However should nifty manage to bounce back without breaching the critical support at 4092,then one can see a sharp bounce towards 4800 levels in july.
For intraday trading on wednesday, traders may continue to hold their puts & as nifty falls towards 4100 levels or in case nifty goes nearer to 4100 levels, may buy a 4200 call & hold it with quit price below 4080 levels. For intraday trading on wednesday nifty has support around 50 dma at 4155 followed by 4136. On the higher side nifty finds resistance around 4232 & then 4259. A decisive cross over and sustaining above 4260 can only take nifty towards the major resistance around 4292 where it is likely to encounter selling pressure.
Asian markets will again play a major role for initial opening & early trading hours for indian markets. Chinese markets after so many days of consecutive rise have started to correct from tuesday onwards. Most of the asian markets are likely to blindly follow overnight dow which too is trading with extremely low volume & showing weakness after a dead cat bounce of 44 points on monday night. Most likely dow will again retest the critical level at 8200 before bouncing back.
The only consolation for indian markets is that, index heavy reliance is nearing the over sold levels and in the daily closing charts it is making a sharp downward slopping wedge formation that may see a sharp up move in reliance in a day or two. Till such time reliance remains weak, the indices will keep on sliding down only.
on tuesday nifty managed to inch up a little, as a face saving bounce after the big fall on the budget day. In fact nifty just managed to bounce back from the critical 50 day moving average around 4160 levels and made a flat type of consolidation. It is generally known that a flat formation after the big fall generally takes the market downwards. So on wednesday, in case nifty breaches 4180 levels then there is every possibility of retest of mondays lows of 4131 levels a breach of which may weaken nifty further to test the make or break support at 4092 that will decide the fate of nifty whether to enter the gap zone to complete the gap till 3710 in next few days or bounce back after retest of the critical level of 4092 to resume the bull run. Unless there are definite market saving actions, one should be reasonably sure to see the gap zone getting filled in coming days. However should nifty manage to bounce back without breaching the critical support at 4092,then one can see a sharp bounce towards 4800 levels in july.
For intraday trading on wednesday, traders may continue to hold their puts & as nifty falls towards 4100 levels or in case nifty goes nearer to 4100 levels, may buy a 4200 call & hold it with quit price below 4080 levels. For intraday trading on wednesday nifty has support around 50 dma at 4155 followed by 4136. On the higher side nifty finds resistance around 4232 & then 4259. A decisive cross over and sustaining above 4260 can only take nifty towards the major resistance around 4292 where it is likely to encounter selling pressure.
Asian markets will again play a major role for initial opening & early trading hours for indian markets. Chinese markets after so many days of consecutive rise have started to correct from tuesday onwards. Most of the asian markets are likely to blindly follow overnight dow which too is trading with extremely low volume & showing weakness after a dead cat bounce of 44 points on monday night. Most likely dow will again retest the critical level at 8200 before bouncing back.
The only consolation for indian markets is that, index heavy reliance is nearing the over sold levels and in the daily closing charts it is making a sharp downward slopping wedge formation that may see a sharp up move in reliance in a day or two. Till such time reliance remains weak, the indices will keep on sliding down only.
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morning update at 8 am 08 july 09
as expected dow lost 161 points and in the bargain breached june lows to close at 8163. Indicators in the daily & weekly charts of dow have nearly bottomed and one can expect a good bounce in dow in a day or two. Brazil closed 2.3% down. European markets were generally down 1% to 1.5% but uk ftse managed to close only .2% down. Asian markets as usual blindly following dow have opened in the red but may recover some of their losses later expecting a good recovery in dow after such a big fall.
For indian markets expect a gap down open below the 50 day moving average or may fall further down to find support around mondays lows of 13959 & 4131 levels or june lows of 14016 & 4141 . Traders are advised to avoid trading in the long side in futures during this week as the chances of getting trapped are quite bright. It is wiser to wait for some days to see whether sensex & nifty breach the critical lows around 13519 & 4092 to cover the entire gap till 12255 & 3700 levels before taking any long positions. Option traders must hold on to their puts and add more puts of 4100 or 4000 on every intraday rise. Call holders should quit calls in case nifty breaches 4100 levels and moves towards 4080 levels.
Having fallen so much nearly 6% on monday and with better things coming out of the budget, just because dow has fallen, one should not expect a big fall today and most likely indices will recover from mondays lows or june lows to get ready for a better day on thursday.
as expected dow lost 161 points and in the bargain breached june lows to close at 8163. Indicators in the daily & weekly charts of dow have nearly bottomed and one can expect a good bounce in dow in a day or two. Brazil closed 2.3% down. European markets were generally down 1% to 1.5% but uk ftse managed to close only .2% down. Asian markets as usual blindly following dow have opened in the red but may recover some of their losses later expecting a good recovery in dow after such a big fall.
For indian markets expect a gap down open below the 50 day moving average or may fall further down to find support around mondays lows of 13959 & 4131 levels or june lows of 14016 & 4141 . Traders are advised to avoid trading in the long side in futures during this week as the chances of getting trapped are quite bright. It is wiser to wait for some days to see whether sensex & nifty breach the critical lows around 13519 & 4092 to cover the entire gap till 12255 & 3700 levels before taking any long positions. Option traders must hold on to their puts and add more puts of 4100 or 4000 on every intraday rise. Call holders should quit calls in case nifty breaches 4100 levels and moves towards 4080 levels.
Having fallen so much nearly 6% on monday and with better things coming out of the budget, just because dow has fallen, one should not expect a big fall today and most likely indices will recover from mondays lows or june lows to get ready for a better day on thursday.
markets for 09 july 09
on wednesday, certain price action indicates further fall in markets. Decisive breach of 50 day moving average having earlier breached the 20 dma, breaching the neck line around 26th may lows of 4092 and closing below it & finally entering the gap zone generally should indicate further fall in markets towards the projected target of 3700.
Not withstanding these gloomy aspects, here are certain aspects which give a faint chance of saving the markets from brinks of disaster. Nifty having fallen from mondays highs of 4480 to wednesdays lows of 4062 has fallen nearly 10% and is ripe for some dead cat bounce shortly. Secondly the highly publicized "head & solder formation & the breach of the neck line has deceived many a times and prices move up to thwart the h & formation. Thirdly every one is bearish because us markets are highly bearish & a good bounce in dow can completely change the entire scene of bearishness. Last but not the least, although nifty has made a h & s formation & breached the neck line at 4092 to close at 4078, cleaner index the sensex is no where near its neck line which is around 26th may low of 13519 & sensex on wednesday after making a low of 13701 has closed at 13769 still 250 points above the neck line at 13519.
So, keeping the above factors in mind, although ruthless shorting on every rise is ideal as per nifty charts, carry over of un hedged shorts are not advised as sensex has not yet signaled an all out shorting & carry over of shorts. For trading on thursday, the indian markets will again be left to the mercy of dow & asian markets & any amount of recovery attempt by big shots to explain the rosier side of the budget may not change the bearish sentiment at least till middle of next week with small dead cat bounces in between.
For intraday trading on thursday, after retesting the wednesdays lows of 4062 or slipping a bit from there one should expect a good bounce towards 4122 levels. Sustaining above 4122 can trigger a lot of short covering that may propel nifty towards 4142 levels above which sharp up move towards 4200 or higher levels may be expected.
on wednesday, certain price action indicates further fall in markets. Decisive breach of 50 day moving average having earlier breached the 20 dma, breaching the neck line around 26th may lows of 4092 and closing below it & finally entering the gap zone generally should indicate further fall in markets towards the projected target of 3700.
Not withstanding these gloomy aspects, here are certain aspects which give a faint chance of saving the markets from brinks of disaster. Nifty having fallen from mondays highs of 4480 to wednesdays lows of 4062 has fallen nearly 10% and is ripe for some dead cat bounce shortly. Secondly the highly publicized "head & solder formation & the breach of the neck line has deceived many a times and prices move up to thwart the h & formation. Thirdly every one is bearish because us markets are highly bearish & a good bounce in dow can completely change the entire scene of bearishness. Last but not the least, although nifty has made a h & s formation & breached the neck line at 4092 to close at 4078, cleaner index the sensex is no where near its neck line which is around 26th may low of 13519 & sensex on wednesday after making a low of 13701 has closed at 13769 still 250 points above the neck line at 13519.
So, keeping the above factors in mind, although ruthless shorting on every rise is ideal as per nifty charts, carry over of un hedged shorts are not advised as sensex has not yet signaled an all out shorting & carry over of shorts. For trading on thursday, the indian markets will again be left to the mercy of dow & asian markets & any amount of recovery attempt by big shots to explain the rosier side of the budget may not change the bearish sentiment at least till middle of next week with small dead cat bounces in between.
For intraday trading on thursday, after retesting the wednesdays lows of 4062 or slipping a bit from there one should expect a good bounce towards 4122 levels. Sustaining above 4122 can trigger a lot of short covering that may propel nifty towards 4142 levels above which sharp up move towards 4200 or higher levels may be expected.
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