JungleLion,
Thanks for attempting to reply - You have skirted answering the question and instead asked me to give a timetable for 'death' ??? What is the connection between the two I fail to understand. Your response to my query is as vague as your post. I can make a statement that one day there will be a terrible earthquake or a big tsunami that will cause massive destruction, and then leave the timeframe open. Anyone can make an open-ended prediction, and will never be wrong.
Also, you are mixing up your opinion and beliefs as fact. Fact can be proven - so do provide some evidence to your assertion, besides negative rates, or else, do give a time-frame within a period of months for your prediction to have any value .
Re. SNB negative rates, there are many other central banks with negative interest rates. And yes, the point is taken that Central banks want to ensure easy liquidity and have more money circulating in the system so as to boost the economy and markets. But that does not still give a timeline of market collapse as you envisage. During the 1997 housing market collapse which led to market implosion and losses on a scale of trillions of dollars, the signs of the impeding crash were signalled two years prior i.e in 1995. Many people who took short position looking at the data were wiped off - because their timing was wrong. Happened during the dot com bubble of 2000 as well. Knowledgeable investors who knew of the bubble and were short, lost their shirt, while the dot com bubble made many millionaires of ill-informed traders/speculators.... While you are not advocating a short position (can understand as you cannot know the timing of the expected market implosion to benefit hugely from being short) You are stating it as an opportunity to buy when eventually market corrects.
The point is, the market moves contrary majority expectations. Many traders following some analysis have been remaining short in our markets, which has rallied 1,000+ odd points from the low. So what I am trying to say is that without a timeline (not a date if you can predict within a period of months the point of market reversal, your prediction has value. And I hope that you can either give it, or say that like one cannot predict death, you cannot know the time of market reversal......
Thanks for attempting to reply - You have skirted answering the question and instead asked me to give a timetable for 'death' ??? What is the connection between the two I fail to understand. Your response to my query is as vague as your post. I can make a statement that one day there will be a terrible earthquake or a big tsunami that will cause massive destruction, and then leave the timeframe open. Anyone can make an open-ended prediction, and will never be wrong.
Also, you are mixing up your opinion and beliefs as fact. Fact can be proven - so do provide some evidence to your assertion, besides negative rates, or else, do give a time-frame within a period of months for your prediction to have any value .
Re. SNB negative rates, there are many other central banks with negative interest rates. And yes, the point is taken that Central banks want to ensure easy liquidity and have more money circulating in the system so as to boost the economy and markets. But that does not still give a timeline of market collapse as you envisage. During the 1997 housing market collapse which led to market implosion and losses on a scale of trillions of dollars, the signs of the impeding crash were signalled two years prior i.e in 1995. Many people who took short position looking at the data were wiped off - because their timing was wrong. Happened during the dot com bubble of 2000 as well. Knowledgeable investors who knew of the bubble and were short, lost their shirt, while the dot com bubble made many millionaires of ill-informed traders/speculators.... While you are not advocating a short position (can understand as you cannot know the timing of the expected market implosion to benefit hugely from being short) You are stating it as an opportunity to buy when eventually market corrects.
The point is, the market moves contrary majority expectations. Many traders following some analysis have been remaining short in our markets, which has rallied 1,000+ odd points from the low. So what I am trying to say is that without a timeline (not a date if you can predict within a period of months the point of market reversal, your prediction has value. And I hope that you can either give it, or say that like one cannot predict death, you cannot know the time of market reversal......
surely if you can give a timetable for death then i may be able to answer this.
stating a fact is not prediction, if you follow bond markets / central banks it will be easier for you to read between the lines.
in september 2014 the snb bonds posted negative rates, in jan snb moved and removed the floor, what happened next is well known, same way its very uncommon or drastic for a central bank to have negative rates on deposits unless they see something we do not.
stock markets depend on the health of the global economy as a whole, you cannot have a constant bull market a correction does happen, how drastic this correction will be can be read if you follow central banks.
the latest in line is negative rates by ecb and japan ; both are major global market movers.
stating a fact is not prediction, if you follow bond markets / central banks it will be easier for you to read between the lines.
in september 2014 the snb bonds posted negative rates, in jan snb moved and removed the floor, what happened next is well known, same way its very uncommon or drastic for a central bank to have negative rates on deposits unless they see something we do not.
stock markets depend on the health of the global economy as a whole, you cannot have a constant bull market a correction does happen, how drastic this correction will be can be read if you follow central banks.
the latest in line is negative rates by ecb and japan ; both are major global market movers.