Low Risk Low Returns- Target 50 NF per month per NF Lot

[jamit_05]

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[jamit_05]

Yes, no trade this month

That is a very sensible thing to do. However, it makes me think how did you arrive at the figure of 279... what if the figure is 250 or 230? Even when sold at 279, is there ever a Drawdown?

 

[Rish]

That is a very sensible thing to do. However, it makes me think how did you arrive at the figure of 279... what if the figure is 250 or 230? Even when sold at 279, is there ever a Drawdown?

I arrived 279 based some calculation (volatility of year 2004 to 2008), as such this no. is playing good role. I am writing options based on this since from 2008 with crisis management strategy.

If you consider 230 or 250, it will fail.

Whenever the premium is below 180 or 190, market movement will be one side or closing will be +/- 60 points settlement to settlement.

Rish

 

[jamit_05]

I arrived 279 based some calculation (volatility of year 2004 to 2008), as such this no. is playing good role. I am writing options based on this since from 2008 with crisis management strategy.

If you consider 230 or 250, it will fail.

Whenever the premium is below 180 or 190, market movement will be one side or closing will be +/- 60 points settlement to settlement.

Rish

Even with 279, what is the worst DrawDown you have seen since 2008?

 

[Rish]

Even with 279, what is the worst DrawDown you have seen since 2008?

Even in Election 2009 by mistake assume you have taken position, considering the loss of Rs.25100 (3500 call and put, total premium 336, closing premium 838, effective loss 502 points) also YOY you will have profit in your kitty.

Definitely nobody will take position when there is a known factor in the Market.

 

[rrekhani]

What will be the result if you sell 5900 Call & 6100 Put today at 171+114=285 ?

 

[jamit_05]

What will be the result if you sell 5900 Call & 6100 Put today at 171+114=285 ?

Rish is strictly talking about same strike price... big difference in the two concepts.

 

[jamit_05]

Ran a superficial analysis.

Monthly average change is 283 over 72 months (since 2007); Max was a 1036 points !!

Now, we are hoping that all those times when the loss is large the 279 point rule filters them out... some backtesting is required...

 

[PartTime_Trader]

I arrived 279 based some calculation (volatility of year 2004 to 2008), as such this no. is playing good role. I am writing options based on this since from 2008 with crisis management strategy.

What is the strategy that you are using?

Whenever the premium is below 180 or 190, market movement will be one side or closing will be +/- 60 points settlement to settlement.

Interesting concept, never looked at options premium as predictive tool for future prices / range

Cheers
::thumb::

 

[jamit_05]

@Rish

So let me be double sure, before I start backtesting for all those 72 months.

If on the expiry day of the previous month, the total of next month ATM CE and next month ATM PE is more than 279 then we have a trade... is it right... word to word?