How to measure success? - The performance parameters

[ashwani chadha]

...........................................................
Few could think like you.......out of box ,as well as clarity.Hope this thread will be as popular like other your others'one. Definitely PROGRESS REPORT has a factor like
1]DISCIPLINE,
2]CONFIDENCE BUILD UP TO SYSTEM
3]OR SWITCHING TO NEW SYSTEM,
4]MONETARY RETURN.Of course
5] understanding on market.
So these 5 one , according to me part of report card.
........................
Definitely you will show something better.
Regards
oilman
btw.....r u fund manager now?

in my view,success depends on these things
entry system:stick rule to be followed:just to enter from ,some very strong support and from no other place , enter in to the trade
exit system:stick rule to be followed:either your trailing stop loss hit or once price has reached at some historical resistance level,as per the time frame used by you and price has tested this historical resistance,and price has failed to break this level,so trade was closed

 

[tnsn2345]

IMO, evaluation of trading can be done in two broad categories:

1) Qualitative (what Linkon, Oilman mentioned some)
2) Quantitative (what SG mentioned)

TT, Aswhani has mentioned combination of above both.

Qualitative will always preceed the quantitative and if one can measure and control the qualitative performance parameters, then profits will follow. For enhancement of profit or optimum utilistaion of resources (money / time) one will use quantitative performance parameters.

Qualitative Parameter:

Our 'mood' is one such variable which keeps on changing during the day, a trade, when out of trade, in profit, in loss etc. And this largely defines how our next trade would be. Our latest trade is responsible for undertaking and outcome of our next trade.

So can I measure my 'mood'? If yes, then how and how would it benefit me in my performance. I cannot control my mood, but if I can measure it, document it and then analyse my action basis different 'moods' I am it. I can then define, what I need to do when I am feeling x or when I am feeling y.

As goes my theory of giving names / acronyms, I would call this a Moodex - Mood Index.

.....

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi TnSn,

Reason for bringing up the Z-Score... was because your post mentioning SD...hence I thought perhaps you are headed towards Various Quantitative Parameters....with this thread.... My sincere apologies...if it wasn't suppose to go in the direction as understood by me....

Thanks & Regards As Always

SG

 

[tnsn2345]

As Linkon mentioned that being happy in doing what you are doing is extremely important. And this determines the quality of output.

Hence for this parameter - Moodex, one can give a 5 point scale, with 1 being not happy and 5 being very happy. This can be defined for each time when we are not in trade. (Once in trade, this parameter is irrelevant). It has to be defined before the trade.

Ok how does this parameter help. Well...standalone this will not mean anything, but when used with the output of trade, this pivot will throw very interesting results of when to do what.

For e.g. if I give a rating of 1 on Moodex (i.e. I am not happy before the trade) and after analysing a series of outcome of trades (i.e. when Moodex was 1), I find that my Long trades yeild lesser loss VIS-A-VIS Short trades. See, here it is a comparison. Maybe all my trades at Moodex 1 maybe in loss. But Longs generate lesser loss compared to Shorts.

So I now have something to rely on what to do if I HAVE to take a trade when I am not ok.

.....

 

[tnsn2345]

Hi TnSn,

Reason for bringing up the Z-Score... was because your post mentioning SD...hence I thought perhaps you are headed towards Various Quantitative Parameters....with this thread.... My sincere apologies...if it wasn't suppose to go in the direction as understood by me....

Thanks & Regards As Always

SG

Dear SG,

Covering stastical parameters which are available with many softwares may be out of scope here just for the reason that it is not possible on such forums to discussion stats/maths in details. For me it would require a face to face interaction and dialogue to explain their interpretations.

As you are omnipresent here and many readers can relate to you very very easily, I request you to continue with your definitions/parameters and how you use them day-to-day.

Yes, wherever possible and to whatever extent possible I would write on different statistical params.


Regards,

 

[tnsn2345]

One can have different scale on the Moodex, instead of 1 to 5. As per convenience names can be given and the index measured. Some of the startling information what one may get is, it is not necessary that you would take a profitable trade if the index is 5 and a non profitable when it is 1. In most cases the results would be encourging when it is 3. Statistically it is a bell curve distribution. Though this may not be necessarily be right for everyone, but in general the results will be fairly good when one is level headed and neutral before commencement of the trade. For me, I have had quite a good number of non profitable trades when the Moodex was at 5. i.e. I could interpret that given that I was so very happy that I took trades which had less probability of running in my favour. So being too happy and trading also hurts. So if I HAVE to trade when too happy, I will reduce the position size, given all other params R:R, probability etc are the same.

Utility of this index will be what to avoid when it is at 1 or at 5. This will lead to taking lesser trades which may be non/ less profitable.

...sounds silly...yes it may, but it helps.

Regards,

 

[oilman5]

Hi Oilman,

None of the things you have listed.... will make sense.... One needs to Put the Trades through a Statistical Grind to come up with 'Figures' to Judge Performance.... There are atleast 18-22 that I can think of ...& I have never been a student of Statistics... think what a real Statistician would come up with.....!!!

'Z-Score' was one such that I mentioned earlier....

I am sure TnSn... will outline some of those in due course of this thread...!!!

SG

.....................................
Thanks SG ,but progress report is never a statistics.Definitely Tnsn2345.Traderstrends,Linkon7,ashwani's view very well.......what one is looking.
Being discreationary ,my primary outlook .......to know me & myself better in the light of stock market.Thats why primary i see these 5 parameter .Elaboration for you
1]DISCIPLINE:whether i am following my strategic plan.
2] CONFIDENCE BUILD UP IN SYSTEM,.......ITS REGARDING MY SWING SET UP
3] SWITCHING TO NEW SYSTEM.........ITS FOR SHORT WITH MOMENTUM
4] MONETARY RETURN ; +/- RETURN , IF POSITIVE HOW MUCH ABSOLUTE
5] UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET........MY HITTING RATE IN A WEEK
..............................
LAST THING IS VERY IMP , as hitting rate tells me ,my capability as trader, ....as if i can not hit 70% , i must stop.
..............................
mathematically a software STATOR.......CAN be sufficient for performance(no i dont use it)

btw i enjoy your forex dummy trade
Regards

[tnsn2345, sorry for distraction]

 

[anuragmunjal]

LAST THING IS VERY IMP , as hitting rate tells me ,my capability as trader, ....as if i can not hit 70% , i must stop.

Dear Oilman

my my hit ratio is 30%

regards

 

[oilman5]

LAST THING IS VERY IMP , as hitting rate tells me ,my capability as trader, ....as if i can not hit 70% , i must stop.

Dear Oilman

my my hit ratio is 30%

regards

................................
Definitely u play then,big size on winner,and more % profit.

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Oilman,

Most if not all points listed by you are... short descriptions of actual Quantitative Analysis..... Actual Figures works like a GPS..pinpointing where one stands.....!!!

If you had to recruit 1 or 2 out of 10 and Let's say 8 are 'confident' and meet your criteria laid out.....who will you recruit.... that is where 'figures' will set those 8 apart from each other....

Just as TnSn cleared.... this thread is more about Qualitative... therefore will not press on with beyond this post....!!!

SG

.....................................
Thanks SG ,but progress report is never a statistics.Definitely Tnsn2345.Traderstrends,Linkon7,ashwani's view very well.......what one is looking.
Being discreationary ,my primary outlook .......to know me & myself better in the light of stock market.Thats why primary i see these 5 parameter .Elaboration for you
1]DISCIPLINE:whether i am following my strategic plan.
2] CONFIDENCE BUILD UP IN SYSTEM,.......ITS REGARDING MY SWING SET UP
3] SWITCHING TO NEW SYSTEM.........ITS FOR SHORT WITH MOMENTUM
4] MONETARY RETURN ; +/- RETURN , IF POSITIVE HOW MUCH ABSOLUTE
5] UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET........MY HITTING RATE IN A WEEK
..............................
LAST THING IS VERY IMP , as hitting rate tells me ,my capability as trader, ....as if i can not hit 70% , i must stop.
..............................
mathematically a software STATOR.......CAN be sufficient for performance(no i dont use it)

btw i enjoy your forex dummy trade
Regards

[tnsn2345, sorry for distraction]