Currency and Stock Markets. Daily Insights

stoch

Active Member
#41
Strong US CPI May Trigger Treasury Sell-off, Dollar Rise

Summary

- Long-dated bond yields picked up ahead of US CPI release, increasing odds of USD rebound;

- Solid China trade data, in particular growth of imports, underpinned oil prices.

Calm in the equity markets extended into Tuesday with US equity index futures swaying near the opening. However, debt markets appear to be strained. Bond yields advanced as the risk of higher inflation rates re-emerged in the past and this week’s data.

Today US consumer inflation report is due and there are good reasons to expect a surprise on the upside. The fact is that inflation on intermediate goods (PPI) in China and the United States came materially higher than forecasts in March, which is likely to affect the final prices due to cost-push inflation pressures. A strong CPI reading will most likely wake up the bears in the Treasury market, and again we will see a renewed uptrend in yields and USD. EURUSD will probably not hold at the current levels and likely go down to 1.1850-1.1860, given tepid behavior of the buyers after reaching 1.19 mark:





Accordingly, a breakout of 1.70% level in 10-year Treasury Note yield may become a technical signal for resumption of the rally to new local highs. The factor of Treasury sell-off, as shown by the dynamics of USD in March and February, is probably the most import in the currency’s strength.

ZEW report on corporate sentiment in Germany, which is usually of high importance, can be ignored, as investors focus on data on vaccination pace, as well as news on the European Recovery Fund, which still has a long way before approval and which could be the factor of Euro strength, similar to fiscal stimulus in the US.

China foreign trade showed mixed dynamics - export growth did not meet expectations, but imports accelerated significantly (38.1% versus 23.3%). Details also showed that China ramped up oil purchases, which came as a surprise. Oil prices rose moderately, but the focus is on successes or failures in suppressing the virus. The situation in this regard is very ambiguous - the deserted streets of India due to record daily growth on the one hand and the rapid recovery of mobility in the United States or Great Britain due to the weakening of the restriction on the other.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 
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stoch

Active Member
#42
Markets are not afraid of US inflation risks

Summary:

- Markets reaction to US inflation report was rather restrained, which came as a big surprise and has medium-term implications for USD;

- The basis of bearish pressure in GBPUSD is largely lockdown-related risks, the chances of which are falling.

Despite highly upbeat reading of US March CPI, markets’ reaction to the event was quite unusual – long-dated Treasury yields skid, pulling lower disappointed dollar. This suggests that the prospects for inflation and growth are largely factored into valuations - the market has gone far ahead in its inflation outlook and will be difficult to surprise. At the same time, the number of arguments against buying the dollar is growing - the net position of speculators in futures has approached neutral (net short is only 2% of open interest), which reduces the opportunity for short-squeeze, the Fed is resolutely rejecting speculations about tapering of asset purchases, and on the other side of the Atlantic, economic activity is reviving, making growth more synchronous, which takes the advantage off the USD.

EURUSD continued to rise, thereby completing the "flag" pattern (one of the trend continuation patterns). However, now the pair is in the area of overlap of the upper bound of the downward trend channel and key horizontal level. The previous attempt to break out and go beyond the upper border of the corridor in a similar situation ended unsuccessfully, and sellers retained control. Successful consolidation above the level of 1.1950 may be considered as a signal that the pair is returning to a medium-term uptrend:







The pound sterling came under pressure yesterday after news that the chief economist of the Central Bank is leaving his post. Andrew Haldane was one of the main hawks in the Central Bank of England, so the path to raising rates may be longer, due to decline in the general policy bias of the Central Bank to quickly normalize credit conditions. However, the main focus remains on the pace of vaccination and the UK is doing well in this. Among the latest news, England's superiority in this regard is notable - take, for example, the fact that more than half of the adults in the country received the vaccine. In the GBPUSD pair, after the correction from 1.40, many risks related to the last lockdown remain priced in, which, as time shows, are unlikely to materialize. This justifies gradual strengthening of the pound against the main peers - EUR and USD.

On the technical front, the pound is likely to test the upper boundary of the correctional channel (1.3850) against the backdrop of retreating USD:




Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#43
Shale oil is slow to recover removing on the key caps for oil price growth



The data on US crude oil inventories has brought noticeable relief to the market, once again hinting on lack of shale oil output rebound, despite warming weather and strengthening demand. Inventories dropped by ~5.9 million barrels last week, more than double than the forecast. Gasoline inventories declined more than expected as well, indicating that consumer demand remains strong.

The report apparently came as a surprise to the market. Oil prices jumped upwards on the release, breaking through the trading range that formed after the last oil mini-collapse:





Production in the US is indeed recovering slowly despite increasing rig count. It means that on the supply side, the picture is still quite favorable for price growth:





The IEA's monthly report released on Wednesday also pushed prices higher. The agency has significantly raised its forecast for oil consumption in the second quarter of 2021, which makes it possible to expect the market to better cope with the forthcoming increase in OPEC production.

The geopolitical factor also accompanies the rise in oil prices. The chances of a quick conclusion of a nuclear deal between Iran and the United States have decreased due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which means that a quick return of Iranian barrels to the market (with a potential of 2 million bbl/d) is not to be expected.

Another piece of data on inflation in the US again exceeded expectations, but assets’ market lacked response. Import and export prices for March were significantly higher than the forecast, indicating that supply is not keeping up with demand. This is a perfectly reasonable assumption, given the series of fiscal stimulus in the US that has sparked a surge in consumer demand. By looking at prices in terms of their signaling function to producers, firms will start adjusting their output in response to price increases, so we first need to see inflation.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Fed to maintain the status quo against the backdrop of hints of inflation coming from “all the cracks in the economy”. Therefore, commenting on what is happening, officials are increasingly saying that inflation is not a problem and monetary stimulus are not endless. Yesterday the head of the Central Bank Powell said that the curtailment of QE will begin "much earlier" than the rate hike, and the Fed is going to keep rates at the current level at least until the end of 2022 (previously the deadline was until the end of 2023).

The early withdrawal of monetary incentives is one of the main threats to the growth of risk assets. An important component of their fundamental assessment is the cost of credit, which justifies their high sensitivity to any hints about an early tightening of the Central Bank's policy.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#44
Falling yields open opportunity to short Gold



The most notable move in asset markets this week was collapse of US yields. The 10-year Treasury yield, which has exploded since the start of the year on accelerating inflation expectations, tumbled to the lowest level since early March:





Most interestingly, this happened against the backdrop of the release of quite pro-inflationary reports - strong US CPI, stellar retail sales, US labor data. Recall that in March, consumer inflation in the US accelerated to 2.1% YoY, retail sales by 9.8% in monthly terms while unemployment claims rose by 576K (the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic). All three indicators beat forecasts, however expected sell-off in bonds never happened. Moreover, investors began to flow back en masse to long-term bonds. As a result, gold skyrocketed due to lower opportunity costs and the dollar came under pressure.

The strange bond move could be explained by heightened geopolitical tensions, in particular, between Russia and the United States over the Ukrainian issue. There were also reports that the downward movement of yields triggered coverage of short positions in the Treasuries, one of the backers of which was "Bond King" Bill Gross. At the beginning of the year, he advocated shorting Treasuries on a potential surge of inflation. Inflation did accelerate, but there was no surge, so his bond position and his followers could be under pressure.

In my opinion, yields will not be able to hold out for a long time at the levels where they are now after a fairly rapid pullback. The reason for this is unchanged inflation trend in the United States. Recent economic data marked beginning of the accelerating trend in price growth. There are no potential catalysts on the horizon for a sharp slowdown in inflation or that could lead to inflection points in the trend. Considering the instruments most available to trade this idea, gold is striking. It is currently approaching the upper border of medium-term downward trading corridor ($1800) …





…which could be a good selling opportunity if we bet on integrity of the channel. Surely this will require a resumption of growth in yields, but there are all the prerequisites for this. The most important of these is continuing trend in lifting of social restrictions and subsequent emerging consumer impulse that generates price increases. In Europe and in a number of other countries, it is still waiting for its moment.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#45
EUR, GBP and JPY: near-term technical setup against USD


The most notable event in FX market on Monday was steep fall of the greenback. The currency index erased half a percent through rather sharp downward moves, which could indicate a large dump. The US currency has been taken away one of the key footholds – ssell-off in long-dated US Treasuries. Massive sales observed in February and March has been fueling demand for cash, however, this driver has suddenly lost steam last week - strong pro-inflationary data in the US (CPI, retail sales) for March met relatively tepid reaction of the bond market. Apparently, this forced dollar holders to ditch the currency.

Analyzing the possibility that the dollar will continue to fall, it is worth paying attention to the technical situation in the pair with the main rival - the euro. Earlier, we discussed a scenario where price after breakout of the horizontal + sloping resistance level (1.1950-60) may set the stage for protracted euro rebound if it stays above the level for several days. Price action on Monday indicates realization of this setup:






The ECB decision this week may open up additional growth prospects for the European currency. If the Central Bank sees optimism in the data and speaks less about the need to maintain huge asset purchase stimulus, the euro will get a support factor in the form of the European Central Bank’s slightly less dovish stance. Chances abound due to unexpectedly strong European data for March.

The dollar's downward jerk also affected GBPUSD - the pair broke through from the bottom up the correctional channel, which has been going on since March, which opens the way to 1.40 after a technical pullback:





The movement could be catalyzed by employment and inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday. Particular attention should be paid to the inflation report, as due to the rapid pace of vaccinations, the chances of seeing a consumer boost in March are high.

USDJPY did not stand aside either. However, it should be borne in mind that technically the yen was strengthening extremely quickly against the dollar (hourly RSI is below 20 ppoints), which increases the chances of a rebound. Potential entry area - intersection with the medium-term trend line (107.60-70):









Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#46
Pressure on USD rises ahead of possible dovish Fed move

The CFTC data showed that net long speculative position on EURUSD rose last week, which suggests the shift in sentiment on the pair is under way after protracted squeeze of long positions. Historically, the euro net long position is within one sigma, i.e., far from extreme levels and there is still room for bulls to ramp up pressure. Speaking of the short term, there was no particular rush of buyers after the test of 1.21 on Monday - the major move is most likely set for Wednesday, when the Fed will clarify the course of US monetary policy. And again, the main question is when to expect unwinding of current pace of QE purchases. Long-dated Treasury yields advanced on Monday, signaling return of inflation concerns as well as worries about possible Fed meeting outcome where the regulator hints that reduction in credit stimulus could begin in the less distant future.

The European currency is also drawing strength from progress on the fiscal front. Positive news on the European recovery fund (large-scale fiscal stimulus) triggered some sell-off in European bonds, due to reassessment of inflation expectations. The yield on 10-year German bonds is again moving towards the local high of this year (-0.217%), while the sell-off appears to be stronger than in long-dated Treasuries:





The dollar index is moderately correcting downwards, having touched the lowest level since the beginning of March (90.65). Despite the coronavirus crisis in one of the largest emerging economies (India), expectations for a global recovery persist, as evidenced by the positive dynamics of industrial metals prices. Iron ore and copper have resumed their uptrend since early April, reflecting expectations that demand will continue to rise:






The theme of recovery this week may be supported by the data on the US economy, in particular GDP, orders for durable goods and claims for unemployment benefits. Output growth in the US economy for the first quarter is expected to be an impressive 6.1%. Given benign environment, better-than-expected data updates should fuel risk appetite. If the Fed gives a signal that it will tolerate overheating of the economy, there will be even less sense to stick to USD positions till the next meeting.

Joe Biden's first speech to Congress will also take place this week, in which he can provide more details on tax reform. For risk assets, the details are likely to be negative, so US indices are likely to decline ahead of the speech.




Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#47
“Frozen” USDCAD and the upcoming Fed meeting: markets overview

FX and sovereign debt markets are bracing for the bout of turbulence ahead of the Fed event today. Despite success in spurring inflation growth, the Fed’s message will likely remain unchanged – substantial observed progress in employment is an essential condition to depart from accommodative policy. Yield differential between the 10 and 2-year Treasuries will likely extend gains on a dovish message - which should support EM currencies as well as Norwegian krone and CAD.
US long-dated yields have rebounded ahead of the Fed, halting decline which lasted about a month:



The US dollar were also offered support thanks to signs of renewed bond market rout and set to test the upper bound of downward channel in which it currently resides:



Inflation premium in long-dated Treasuries could be fueled by the US consumer sentiment report released on Tuesday. Consumer sentiment index jumped to 121.7, the highest since February 2020. The report reinforced fears that supply in the economy is not keeping pace with rebounding consumer demand, which should result in faster inflation. There are signs on the supply side that justify those fears: for example, quickly rising maritime shipping rates or, for example, updated profit forecast of the largest container operator Maersk. The company has doubled its profit forecast for 2021 due to "exceptionally strong" demand for its logistic services.
Given these findings, if the Fed continues to cling to the transient inflation argument today and leaves QE timeframe unchanged, the US real rate will be under pressure again. This time, however, we have less patchy global growth, so there are plenty of alternatives to US fixed income assets. This should stimulate the search for yield abroad. The effect on the dollar appears to be negative.
However, pressure on USD will likely be uneven. Given positive correlation of yielding currencies with the spread between 10-year and two-year US government bonds, in particular the Canadian dollar, today's message from the Fed may open way for their further rally. By the way, the CAD has been behaving strangely in the couple of last days, fluctuating in a very narrow range after strong sweeping moves earlier:


Continuation pattern?

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#48
Continuing US bond rout may offer some support to USD next week


Incoming economic data of developed economies in the second half of the week, dynamics of commodity prices (record price of steel futures) added fuel to the flight from long-dated bonds:






US GDP growth beat forecast in the first quarter of 2021, averaging to 6.4%, while quarterly inflation measured through GDP growth accelerated to 4.1% against expectations of 2.5%. Despite weak output in Germany and threat of technical recession in the first quarter, price growth there also accelerated above expectations in April.

US unemployment claims that came on Thursday were slightly weaker than the forecast - both initial and continuing claims gained more than expected, nevertheless, the markets are bracing for a very strong increase in the April NFP of 925K. The report is due for release on next Friday. If job growth meets expectations or even beats forecast, rumors that the Fed will move to tapering earlier than previously expected should increase, as according to the Fed, substantial progress in employment is the key goal of ultra-easy credit policy. Inflation expectations are also set to accelerate in this case, fueling more upside in yields which in case of rapid movements may offer support for USD.

It is clear that US debt market became more concerned about the threat of inflation this week. However, in the current environment, inflation is a synonym of expansion, which means demand for risk is likely to stay here as the dominant market theme. At the very least, it is difficult to expect that there will be a reason for a collapse and even a correction. The Fed added fuel to the fire on Wednesday, once again declaring that "it is not time to even discuss the changes in QE purchases". Cheap credit policy, coupled with economic pickup will likely continue to push prices up and the risk that inflation will accelerate haunts bonds. The Fed stubbornly denies that inflation will be here for a long time and is trying to convince market participants of this. As you can see, it doesn't work out very well.

The dollar sank after the Fed meeting, but is trying to recover for the second day in a row. Yesterday, consolidation above the upper border of the descending channel failed, but on Friday the chances of this are much higher:






Next week we may see a slight strengthening of the dollar towards 91.00-91.20 amid bond pressure ahead of a possible NFP surprise. The bar to surprise is very high and if the report fails to meet expectations, USD will likely start to drift lower from those levels.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

stoch

Active Member
#49
USD set to stay range-bound given moderate US data updates



The buying wave in USD emerged last Friday appears to be losing punch as US currency retreats against major peers. However, resumption of sales may take longer than bears could expect. To bet on further USD slide, markets may need data updates that would shift risk-seeking flows to assets outside the US. However, this week, key reports will be related to the US economy and weak US currency should be expected in case of a downside surprise in Friday Payrolls.

In general, post-pandemic recovery in the United States is going well. Last week, this was indicated by data on consumer spending and U. Michigan consumer sentiment report, which came a tad stronger than forecasted. Long-term market rates in the US generally sway near opening Monday and US currency has not been offered support from this side.

At the same time, markets learned last week that the European economy is getting out of the recession faster than forecasted. Key macroeconomic variables more than met expectations - GDP for the first quarter, inflation and unemployment in April, which sets the stage for appreciation of the Euro as EU recovery momentum catches up with the US.

We have entered a new month, so it is also worth to consider seasonality factor. May usually turns out to be favorable for the dollar, this is probably due to the fact that corrections in risk assets often occur in May. Keep in mind the well-known saying “Sell in May and go away”, which this year may remind many investors of itself.

The upper border of USD index strengthening this week will most likely reside at 91.55 points. This is a two-week high. For EURUSD it is approximately 1.1990 and 1.3780 for GBPUSD. These levels may not hold in case of a correction in US equities, which would open the door for rally in the index towards 92.00. However, this is difficult to expect morally, given that the consensus on Payroll’s growth in April is almost 1 million jobs. There are also many anecdotal evidences indicating that the service sector in the United States simply lags behind the consumer boom, failing to hire required number of workers.

Investors also listen to Powell, but continue to do their own thing. Weekly inflows to funds investing in inflation-protected bonds continue to remain at historically high levels:





In our case, elevated inflationary expectations reflect the investors’ opinion that there is strong demand in the economy, which, of course, is barely a macroeconomic basis under which a correction should be expected.

Commodity markets are on the rise, as can be seen from highest in years reading of the Bloomberg Commodity Price Index, which basically forces investors to expect continued rise in cost-push inflation in the coming months:





The largest threat for further USD dump is a fresh sell-off in Treasuries. However, we have to see material gain in Payrolls above forecast to see another leg of inflation concerns. In addition, bond pressure could emerge after the release of ADP and PMI in the US non-manufacturing sector on Wednesday. The focus will traditionally be on the employment component. Moderate data should take away support from USD as any sign of cooling in the US momentum is what bond bulls exactly want for.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 
#50
Developed economies compete in the pace of recovery. Which one will win?


Developed economies keep competing in the pace of recovery. UK data showed on Tuesday that manufacturing activity rose to its highest in more than 26 years:





Interestingly, the Markit report mentioned the same challenge also faced by US and EU producers: supply chain bottlenecks, resources and inventory shortages. This results in the rise of intermediate prices and response to this is the same everywhere - push the increase further in the price chain, i.e. hike end prices. However, the temporary consumer boom against the background of lifting of the pandemic restrictions makes it easy to do this, so cost-push inflation does not yet run into demand constraints, causing steady upward inflation trend.

The data on activity of manufacturers in the US and German economies were somewhat disappointing, but still it was quite strong. Looking under the hood, primary drivers of growth of the broad index were extremely high readings of new orders and prices components, while components of inventories and customer inventories made negative contribution:





Nonetheless, central banks have been slow to sound the alarm and tighten credit conditions in response to the threat of inflation pickup. But there is still some progress in this matter. Yesterday the head of the New York Fed Williams spoke, who admitted that the Fed could raise interest rate on excess reserves for banks or reverse repo rate. Both measures are intended to remove excess liquidity from the banking sector, although they are quite technical in nature. However, in the past, they preceded the start of normalization of credit conditions, so the dollar bulls took this hint with great optimism.

On Tuesday, we saw increased demand for greenback thanks to Williams comments, USD index climbed to 91.40 which is highest level since the start of the week. Today, the report on activity in the US service sector from ISM is due which should help to prepare better to the NFP surprise as well as give an idea of what is happening with services sector inflation in the US. Strong reading, especially driven by prices and hiring components will likely to push USD index higher with potential test of 91.55 resistance level, however further upside is under question and will require more reflation optimism, i.e., strong NFP surprise.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
 

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