Charts for the Day

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anil,

What is ur criteria for considering the stock to be entering into uptrend & buy on dip style of trading/investing?

Dear Mangup,

Stock can be taken into uptrend when two successive HH-HL formation sets in.
This is general definition. But apart from that you need to focus on price action too.
My learning of price is mostly from here and specially to Saint sirs thread.
Apart from that the work done by ST and SG is remarkable...Specially 3-15 and other thread. A good place to learn, which is never ever written in books. See how position sizing and all got discussed there. I am still not good into position sizing part.
As i have been told by many, trade what you see and not what you think.
The current rally is best example, stock near to highs making more lifetime highs, while the laggards are still betting ignored.
My first place of judging uptrend is HH-HL setup and then focussing on Moving average setups, possibly towards explosive king of move. and then stock best correct to 34 ema(if in strong uptrend) or near to 50 DMA..the story goes on.

A good example is here...
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/69380-charts-day-20.html#post731201

And now see updated chart here...

[/UR


Point is moment you see nice setup on price action or moving average front, and stock making HH-HL formation get in and ride it. For studying price action, analyse many charts as you can, and go on study it daily atleast 20-25 stocks for an hour or so. you will get feel of what stock trying to do. or Rather what smart money trying to do.

 

[jain.er]

Anil Ji I love this Bombay Dyeing trade of yours.....(Since the time you had taken it)

 

[prabhsingh]

Anil,

How much importance do you think is required to be given to a particular stock who is not making HH but has started making LH.Once thats done do you think any sort of MA can assist us to pre judge this stock before it start making HH.

 

[mangup]

Dear Mangup,

Stock can be taken into uptrend when two successive HH-HL formation sets in.
This is general definition. But apart from that you need to focus on price action too.
My learning of price is mostly from here and specially to Saint sirs thread.
Apart from that the work done by ST and SG is remarkable...Specially 3-15 and other thread. A good place to learn, which is never ever written in books. See how position sizing and all got discussed there. I am still not good into position sizing part.
As i have been told by many, trade what you see and not what you think.
The current rally is best example, stock near to highs making more lifetime highs, while the laggards are still betting ignored.
My first place of judging uptrend is HH-HL setup and then focussing on Moving average setups, possibly towards explosive king of move. and then stock best correct to 34 ema(if in strong uptrend) or near to 50 DMA..the story goes on.

A good example is here...
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/69380-charts-day-20.html#post731201

And now see updated chart here...

Point is moment you see nice setup on price action or moving average front, and stock making HH-HL formation get in and ride it. For studying price action, analyse many charts as you can, and go on study it daily atleast 20-25 stocks for an hour or so. you will get feel of what stock trying to do. or Rather what smart money trying to do.

Hi Anil,
I had read SH's 315 thread. But the problem comes when it starts whipsawing. Still it is a good method to follow. Have you derived any other MA crossover method for daily time frame?

If we consider HH-HL sequence intact, where do we exit? Is it on break of that sequence i.e. start of two successive LH-LL? If yes, will it not be too late to exit long?

How to decide exit long on MA basis? Any other method u suggest?

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Anil,

How much importance do you think is required to be given to a particular stock who is not making HH but has started making LH.Once thats done do you think any sort of MA can assist us to pre judge this stock before it start making HH.

Dear prabhsingh,

We dont know in advance whether stock will make it to HH-HL, no one can say that. But if the stock has been fallen much and higher timeframe showing +ve divergence, and on lower timeframe any moving average setup is getting ready, then one can smell something is cooking...
There will always be a probability, never be a certainty..and thats why we trade it.
See the point is confluence of trading ideas is important, like important S/R levels, +ve div, MA setup...a good price action..price action can be anything, a bottom being made and next day a engulfing bar, or lower tail bullish bar on bottom day, or outside day breakout..these are thing supporting your trade to go long...hope i am clear now...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Hi Anil,
I had read SH's 315 thread. But the problem comes when it starts whipsawing. Still it is a good method to follow. Have you derived any other MA crossover method for daily time frame?

If we consider HH-HL sequence intact, where do we exit? Is it on break of that sequence i.e. start of two successive LH-LL? If yes, will it not be too late to exit long?

How to decide exit long on MA basis? Any other method u suggest?

Dear mangup,

good question...any method be it 3-15 will not give always good results..i like the point of analysis in SH's swing trading system, i mean going on marking key pivots, whenever price touched 15 ema..like that you can have your own tool...The chart i posted of bombay dyeing, watch price correction till 34 ema and then bouncing back..it is on daily,,i mark that on chart...I always said, when price is in strong rally/fall it will have correction till 34 ema's, rarely it corrects till 50 DMA or higher ones...Bcoz buyer are keen at every small correction to latch it up...

Exit strategies are not on system basis, but individuals risk appetite basis...someone riding on weekly charts. dont exists till daily gives -ve divergence..or price correction and follow up method..for ex...assume stock in uptrend, and after marking a high, it will correct, first sign of correction action will be candlestick analysis...if wide range candles..assume top in place, and selling started already...MA crossover then give sell..then comes important part, stock will try to test intermediate pivot high, if failed to come up, then a selling button will again be pressed..and stock then makes lower high and lower low...

These point of testing is of crucial importance in any stock, for ex..it may cross below 34ema and corrects more, then prices will retrace back to 34 ema, if strength will overcome, if weakness again selling...
This fallacy of cathcing tops and bottoms, makes trader search for systems again and again..leave something for others too...if your trade done and merit of holding it makes no sense, then better exit...

 

[Esse]

Hi Anil,

Would you pl your opinion on UCO bank? Am stuck at 86.5

Regards

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Hi Anil,

Would you pl your opinion on UCO bank? Am stuck at 86.5

Regards

Dear Esse,

What i understand from your trade, you try to catch breakout above 83 zone, but caught is later. Stock got breakout and right now testing is going on, with support of short term divergence, if stock has strength it will restrict to to close below 80 levels.As per me it is in consolidation zone, since intermediate and long term momentum still UP, and no sign of maturity is seen right now.

a little correction in chart, short term trend is down, due to impact of -ve div.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

A more detailed hourly chart, considering your futures position...
The point is where to get a trade and where to avoid it...

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Infy identified and reacted but point is, whether anyone hold off..
Let me admit it frankly i exited at 2375 and in money right now...oops...the patience kills..but yes discipline rules..so stick with it...