Charts for the Day

[anil_s_trivedi]

Nifty 5min projection for yesterday and todays chart attached.
If regular readers have noted, nifty moved as per our earlier analysis posted two weeks back.
I lost my saved chart, will need to rework on crucial levels now.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Thanks for your input bhai. I guess am learning faster (atleast I hope).

Back to NIFTY I was getting clarification from you.

I haven't closed my PT 1 (short in NIFTY). I am trying to approach my paper trading as the way I would do real trade.

My initial target (off-course from the Fibonacci retracement you mentioned) is at 5489. I am still holding the position (just in paper though). I am looking at a price target of 5514 (38.2% level).

Thanks Much
Sreeram

Dear Sreeram,

Infact you should have part book at 5585-90 zone, as its trendline support and a minimum target for anyone holding short from 5680-90 levels
Now another round of selling if unable to cross 5635-40 zone will lead to 5545-50 zone
Watch the confluence zone coming around 5500-20, so you need to probably get out completely or trail with stoploss there
As of now, monthly closing today so need to see how it goes, but closing below 5600 will have weakness to move towards 5450, so it need to have a closing above 5600 today,lets see...

 

[mksreeram]

Thanks Anil. Few questions. Request your clarification.

1. Why is 5635-5640 important? Is it because the trend resistance coming down to that level and would resist the price there?
2. Why do you see 5600 closing today important? Is it because 38.2% is there and if NIFTY fails to penetrate it would go down to 50% retracment to a level of 5450

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Thanks Anil. Few questions. Request your clarification.

1. Why is 5635-5640 important? Is it because the trend resistance coming down to that level and would resist the price there?
2. Why do you see 5600 closing today important? Is it because 38.2% is there and if NIFTY fails to penetrate it would go down to 50% retracment to a level of 5450

Dear Sreeram,

If nifty is in strength, i would love to see holding the gap support, with closing below 5600, it will have effect to test this three leg downmove to 100% and 161.8% projection levels, of this three leg downmove.

Also the gap is a prominent breakaway gap, so its a crucial support..on upside 5634-40 is the zone we witnessed support multiple times, before breaking it, yesterday. The real struggle by bulls till now, is unable to even retest this level.

Remember unable to retest the level, is a sure sign of weakness, as of now...

 

[mksreeram]

Understood. Splendid work.

Any comment on the Fibonacci Retracement I had posted? Did I draw it correct?

[/QUOTE]

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Understood. Splendid work.

Any comment on the Fibonacci Retracement I had posted? Did I draw it correct?

[/QUOTE]

Dear sreeram,

FR2 is not a valid as per me, many can argue here. See fibonacci retracement/projections are on the user and its ability to apply to the best manner, can only have true fibonacci projections. Infact a little knowledge of elliott wave, is good it gives you what likely fibonacci points you need to consider for waves projection/retracements.
And my thought process also goes in the same direction. See What is corrective move is travelling less in more time, as compared to previous move.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Our todays 5min projection levels chart, a good trade today, a positive divergence and as expected likely closing above 5600, combined it with fibo levels

 

[mangup]

Dear Anil Bhai,

I wanted to seek ur opinion on deciding the important levels to follow-

let's say, If i am doing an intraday trading watching 5/15 min charts.

1. Drawing fib projn on first 5 min range (14 levels)
2. Drawing fib projn on first 15 min range (app 6 levels)
3. Drawing floor pivot levels (app 5 levels)
4. Drawing fibb retracement levels. (6 levels)
5. Gaps

With all these levels app 31 levels, it will always happen that prices will touch one or the other & either bounce back or move ahead to another level.

Still if i intend to stick to one TF, that will reduce the importance of the levels as i am not seeking opinion from higher TF.

If i add another study/analysis to the existing one, it will again make the system complex.

I wanted to know which levels are important to follow as per the sequence of importance as far as intraday trading is concerned?

Offcourse the confluence of levels will work, but again in intraday with so many levels, we will have confluence at one or the other zones.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Dear Anil Bhai,

I wanted to seek ur opinion on deciding the important levels to follow-

let's say, If i am doing an intraday trading watching 5/15 min charts.

1. Drawing fib projn on first 5 min range (14 levels)
2. Drawing fib projn on first 15 min range (app 6 levels)
3. Drawing floor pivot levels (app 5 levels)
4. Drawing fibb retracement levels. (6 levels)
5. Gaps

...............................

Dear Mangup,

The newer study of fibonacci projection is started just to have an proxy analysis tool, as i have already said, it is under review,there are no definite rules.
What floor pivots are used for..?? Is it for trading only. No. You can have 'n' number of analysis with pivots. For Ex. If market going to test S3 and later in a day closed above R2, its a strong indication of underlying strength, and demand near to S3 levels. Similarly these fibo levels are for analysis only.

If you are a intraday trader, your focus should be on 5min chart pivots(floor/fibo), supported by 60 min charts
If you are positional trader, focus on weekly/daily/60min charts

My trading screen right now have three templates, in first one only price, second one moving averages with RSI, and third is momentum indicators(of higher timeframe too) with price..

You need to ask yourself what is your trade duration, and focus only on that. Too much of analysis will surely lead to paralysis on action front. Even with moving averages many traders trading, its not the only crossover technique, it is useful to have a setup of moving averages.

If i am trading on 5min charts, my action points will be trendlines support/Resistance from 60 min charts, Hourly pivot and 5 ema, and two-three moving averages, just it...why need mess up. Markets dont always trend, so reduce your trading size during consolidation.

 

[anil_s_trivedi]

Price action till now that much supporting the rise, waiting for a weakness here in this zone 5710-20, ideal Stoploss if any at 5735, probable retesting zone is 5670/55