Are we close to a new Peak?

#1
"Ola Drivers" in Mumbai are into the stock market - news item! Veterans know that this sets all alerts to be cautious as the market is nearing a peak.

Nifty PE crossed 25 yesterday, source NSE website, going into very high valuations.

If the earnings do not catch up, the stocks will not justify the prices, and will go down. However, money supply might play a crucial role here. MFs are rolling with assured regular supply of money through SIPs, where those inactive investors are unlikely to move in immediately to encash.

GST will ease goods movement, and also simplify regulatory compliance which could increase their productivity manifold. Highly beneficial for the large companies. Maybe, not for the retailers and very small companies, who from just VAT returns, will have to file returns to the level of Excise, which is far more cumbersome. Of course, these companies are hardly listed and unlikely to make any difference to the stock prices!

Historically, the major crashes 1992, 2000 & 2008 were space about 8 years apart! We seem to be just about there on the calendar!

Your views, guys!
 

newtrader101

Well-Known Member
#2
Bank Nifty also looks set technically and astrologically for a crash, even though it might last perhaps till Feb only, when Jupiter turns retrograde again. The coming week Venus is squaring Neptune and opposing Saturn, and after that Jupiter squares Pluto. All can set off cataclysmic movements.

I'm no expert, just a beginner.
 
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newtrader101

Well-Known Member
#3
Update: Bank Nifty has broken the recent high (22/06/17), the bearish Stochastics divergence did not work. It could mean its going to scale new heights.
 
#4
"Ola Drivers" in Mumbai are into the stock market - news item! Veterans know that this sets all alerts to be cautious as the market is nearing a peak.

Nifty PE crossed 25 yesterday, source NSE website, going into very high valuations.

If the earnings do not catch up, the stocks will not justify the prices, and will go down. However, money supply might play a crucial role here. MFs are rolling with assured regular supply of money through SIPs, where those inactive investors are unlikely to move in immediately to encash.

GST will ease goods movement, and also simplify regulatory compliance which could increase their productivity manifold. Highly beneficial for the large companies. Maybe, not for the retailers and very small companies, who from just VAT returns, will have to file returns to the level of Excise, which is far more cumbersome. Of course, these companies are hardly listed and unlikely to make any difference to the stock prices!

Historically, the major crashes 1992, 2000 & 2008 were space about 8 years apart! We seem to be just about there on the calendar!

Your views, guys!
The OLA drivers as a crash factor would have been significant in a different world - basically what happened in the 1930's crash story etc. Unfortunately, liquidity this time is created by factors such as QE. If a central bank keeps printing money then your OLA driver and everyone else keeps having more money - this means markets keep going up. For example, Uber drivers here in the US who make very little money have been buying small amount of stocks for years now. The markets never went down. You really need to see macro factors here. Now the fed raising rates and ECB getting antsy with their version of QE might play on liquidity. Another thing, is that a rising dollar pillages EMs. So the market might go down but not because a OLA driver buys stocks a la 1930. Just my two cents
 
#5
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