3i Infotec

[sagi.thediceman]

Hello Sagi

Regarding your buy call on 3I can you confirm your logic in making the buy call will hold if scrip moves below 290-288 range. Right now i feel it is bit dicey and a touch and go situation. If it turns upwards from here it is very good.

Otherwise dont you think it will be a good buy at 280-282 levels. Of course i will not go short on this scrip now but was wondering whether pickup at lower levels will be possible if 290-288 fails to hold. Monthly S1 is 290.50.

why i mentioned monday is a touch and go is that on friday it took out previous days low(292.70) and closed at the previous day low price.
Usually in such type of candles i see a sharp reverse move upwards. So on monday it may go to 289-288 level and bounce upwards. These are all just possibilities and assumptions.

But why i raised the query was one of the most important support levels for the scrip at present is 290.60(say a small margin to the lowr side) so what if it is substantially broken. The scrip managed to close just above 290.60. Moreover i feel scrip will be really bullish only if it crosses and trades above 304 levels at least for the present. I hope you understand my thinking.

This is where Ratans logic of using SL and re entering scrip comes into. But then SL depends on a persons ability to absorb the loss he is willing to accept . As you said it should not be defined by you.The trader should decide on SL.

Kindly note this is not a difference of opinion or suggestion. But thinking of a possibility since most of my studies are based on short term periods.I do not follow fundamentals .Correct me if i am wrong.

Regards

Saji

HI saji

differnt people adopt different stategies in the market.These startgies are built by the individuals over time and experience, their adaptability to new conditions and changes and also their risk covering capacity. So to say one strategy is better than other is not correct. I have know the pitfalls of the SL , many occassions and therefore have a devised my methods. ratan , on the contrary , believes that a SL is good for him and best suited for him. It would be foolish on my part to claim that my strategy is the best, as my psychology , style may be entirely different from his. For example , I am a risk taker compared to him. So there is no comparision of strategies at all/


However , we have entered into an interesting area of finding out the methodology. Let us find an answer to these two methods .

Case (Sagi's method) Sagi holds 3i infotec at Rs 309 and does not goin a stop loss . He expects the stock to go up to 331/368 over a period of 2 months. he is holding the stock as he bought the stocks as an investment

case 2. (saji's method} He bought at 309 but decides that his stop loss is 290 and has sold the stock at 290 hoping to buy back at lower level .
( kindly modifyn it suitably and give your target price)

we will watch as to what happens real time? ok??


In my opinion the stock will be extremely bullish after it crosses 321

 

[saji oommen]

Hello Sagi,

Looks like you have misunderstood my message. Your call is correct and i have clearly mentioned it is bullish if it trades above 304. I fully agree each person has his own style of investing or trading.

But in your case i feel most of your calls are taken as short term by many members. Only today in the educomp thread you cleared the doubt. This may be the main reason you may have attracted lot of fire.

There is no need for the match. Because if you win it looks automatically you methods are correct which in fact may be very much correct. 3I was never in my radar. I select my own scrips for trading but i go through majority of the posts in this forum for additional information and knowledge. I never take recomendations.

To be honest with you with my trading style and methods i will not buy at 309( not my buy price at all and not in hind sight). Rather i will pick it up at 292.70 if i am willing to take more risk at this level (since it is on a crucial support level)or even at more comfortable lower levels 280-282 (lesser risk and higher returns) if support is broken as mentioned in earlier message.

But then for buy at these lower levels first it has to break 292.60 substantially downwards.Even if it fails to break and reverses upwards i still have the option of buying at lower levels than 309 and also the additional confirmation of strong support at 292.60.


To me i just cannot stomach a scrip i bought go down drastically from my buy price (309-292= 17). Add brokerage it is irritating even more. The reason being over the years i had successfully developed few methods where i am able to buy at very lower levels from where a scrip usually bounce upwards to give a good decent profit for short period holdings.

But as in your case being a longterm investor it is totally a different ball game. So Ratan, myself and you all have different methods ultimately resulting in good profits.

Neither will i hold a scrip for 2 months how ever charming since there are quite a lot out there everyday with good short term potential trades lasting 6-10 days. Only negative point broker gets more commission.

But the catch is the expected reversal on monday will it materialise(high risk for me).But then i trade short term and always look to buy at the lowest levels. You have long term plans which are sound. I was only looking at alternatives in case of contigencies. I do keep open few alternatives always.

About the target absolutely no difference of opinion if scrip rebounces upwards. I was only looking forward to a fruitful study and discussion.

Just for curiosity can you tell me at what price you will exit this scrip if it fails to meet your expecations provided you are not planning to hold it indefinitely till it meets your target. I am more interested in the exit price if you are on a loss.

Regards

Saji

 

[sagi.thediceman]

Hello Sagi,

Looks like you have misunderstood my message. Your call is correct and i have clearly mentioned it is bullish if it trades above 304. I fully agree each person has his own style of investing or trading.

But in your case i feel most of your calls are taken as short term by many members. Only today in the educomp thread you cleared the doubt. This may be the main reason you may have attracted lot of fire.

There is no need for the match. Because if you win it looks automatically you methods are correct which in fact may be very much correct. 3I was never in my radar. I select my own scrips for trading but i go through majority of the posts in this forum for additional information and knowledge. I never take recomendations.

To be honest with you with my trading style and methods i will not buy at 309( not my buy price at all and not in hind sight). Rather i will pick it up at 292.70 if i am willing to take more risk at this level (since it is on a crucial support level)or even at more comfortable lower levels 280-282 (lesser risk and higher returns) if support is broken as mentioned in earlier message.

But then for buy at these lower levels first it has to break 292.60 substantially downwards.Even if it fails to break and reverses upwards i still have the option of buying at lower levels than 309 and also the additional confirmation of strong support at 292.60.


To me i just cannot stomach a scrip i bought go down drastically from my buy price (309-292= 17). Add brokerage it is irritating even more. The reason being over the years i had successfully developed few methods where i am able to buy at very lower levels from where a scrip usually bounce upwards to give a good decent profit for short period holdings.

But as in your case being a longterm investor it is totally a different ball game. So Ratan, myself and you all have different methods ultimately resulting in good profits.

Neither will i hold a scrip for 2 months how ever charming since there are quite a lot out there everyday with good short term potential trades lasting 6-10 days. Only negative point broker gets more commission.

But the catch is the expected reversal on monday will it materialise(high risk for me).But then i trade short term and always look to buy at the lowest levels. You have long term plans which are sound. I was only looking at alternatives in case of contigencies. I do keep open few alternatives always.

About the target absolutely no difference of opinion if scrip rebounces upwards. I was only looking forward to a fruitful study and discussion.

Just for curiosity can you tell me at what price you will exit this scrip if it fails to meet your expecations provided you are not planning to hold it indefinitely till it meets your target. I am more interested in the exit price if you are on a loss.

Regards

Saji

Hi

I did not mean a match.

One continues learning and the learning curve never ends.

so I thought that we play a game and find out how it goes, without any string attached. if we do what we suggest just as a play , we would know what to do. That is all what I intended not to belittle any one.

Are u a technical analyst?


best wishes

sagi

 

[saji oommen]

Hello Sagi

Sorry i have high regards for your methods and risk taking ability. I would like to be in a match only from my entry and SL levels. But for us that differs substatially. Any for the funsake i have no objection. After all we can learn more to refine our methods since market is the best teacher and person to point out our deficencies.

I never thought of being belittled. Infact even if someone does so i never bother nor do i give it back in the same coin. I prefer to play in a dignified manner in all matters.

I am not a technical analyst. I just do my own studies and gain from the knowlegde and experience built over the years. Of course i use latest softwares for TA sudies. Trading is just a serious hobby and secondary source of income.

So what i do is pick scrips which are hitting new lows/ highs and with the possibility of reversing for short term gains. I am not talking of absolute lows but a person with your experience must be aware of certain pressure points when a scrip reaches it has to reverse before its further movement either to upside or lower . Some times if i am lucky i get lowest lows.

My first source of income is as a practising chartered Accountant. So seldom do i get much time to do fill time trading.

Regards

Saji

 

[sagi.thediceman]

Hello Sagi

Sorry i have high regards for your methods and risk taking ability. I would like to be in a match only from my entry and SL levels. But for us that differs substatially. Any for the funsake i have no objection. After all we can learn more to refine our methods since market is the best teacher and person to point out our deficencies.

I never thought of being belittled. Infact even if someone does so i never bother nor do i give it back in the same coin. I prefer to play in a dignified manner in all matters.

I am not a technical analyst. I just do my own studies and gain from the knowlegde and experience built over the years. Of course i use latest softwares for TA sudies. Trading is just a serious hobby and secondary source of income.

So what i do is pick scrips which are hitting new lows/ highs and with the possibility of reversing for short term gains. I am not talking of absolute lows but a person with your experience must be aware of certain pressure points when a scrip reaches it has to reverse before its further movement either to upside or lower . Some times if i am lucky i get lowest lows.

My first source of income is as a practising chartered Accountant. So seldom do i get much time to do fill time trading.

Regards

Saji

It will be good for you to have a little bit of TA.

There are methods for day trader, swing trader and medium and long term trader.

It will give u much more mone thsan the present emphirical methods that you are now following. And then , it will ease pressure on your time.

You asked me a question at what levels , i would exit from 3I infotect.

Technically , it could go to 279/260 levels , but I think that it should bounce back from around 279 levels. But the real good support to it is 233. even if it goes to 233 , and bounces back , then the target on recovery will be about 415. so it is a hold.

Fundamentally, the stock is good as , its main business is in euriope and there fore dolarr re fluctuation does not affect its margins.so I will keep buying this stock.

I will sell only if it breaches 233 which is not likely occur.


sagi

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Assuming that the pivot is 309 , and if the stock is beaten down by powerful institutions to shake off the weak hands , and assuming that it goes to Rs 200m as you say, then the stock will bounce back to (309-200) + 309 +; that is 418. In which case the Institutions would be laughing at you because , they get their stock almost free.

You agree that it is assumption and still want to think that assumption is 100% correct without concrete evidence. Do u know what it means to go to 200. You just lost 35% of ur stock value. Again assuming it bounce back to 418 and again 50% up (how many ups and downs needed). What is the timeframe? What is Risk Reward? What if all the stocks work the same way? You will loose 40% capital.
Institutions will be laughing that you are supporting them so nicely.

That is why I never put stop loss. And I have written to small investors to hold the stock without panic and if they follow me , they will not be hurt in the end.. I have also given the rationale of my way of playing the game of stock market in some other thred.

Sagi

You are helping small investors without SL. Here first point noted is that is for investors no way for traders. Second when you plan to invest dont invest at the tops and wait till go down to the bottoms and wait again to get to the break even and again profits

Can you please tell me that are u a trader or Investor? I m confused

Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

I will sell only if it breaches 233 which is not likely occur.
sagi

Finally you mentioned stop loss. From your SL, I think you are trading Medium to Long term. Its better to put it upfront your style so that fellow boarders can really understand what is the timeframe, risk...

Raj

 

[sagi.thediceman]

Finally you mentioned stop loss. From your SL, I think you are trading Medium to Long term. Its better to put it upfront your style so that fellow boarders can really understand what is the timeframe, risk...

Raj

HI

Not really .

Kindly see my discussion with saji oomen in educomp Board .
Stop loss is an anethama to me and I have explained it clearly

I have in the beginning itself written my methodology .


I will cull it out and post it here as soon as possible.

sagi

 

[saji oommen]

Hello,

I am very much aware of TA and its nuances. In fact i could save time if i was able to automate my methods. But still it requires human intervention and decision to be made on visual study basis.

In fact i remember reading in another forum elite trader a well known successful trader suggesting that to trade comfortably and successfully you got to stop learning some point in time. Other wise you will be making constant unnecessary changes to your already successful method or trading systems. Of course over the time minor changes may required.

In fact over the years i had invested and accumulated lot of materials, methods and softwares for learning TA. But then i learnt the important lesson that i must develop my own method or system to be successful. Finally after efforts lasting more than 5-7 years i succeeded and feel quite
comfortable to trade successfully with a system that is able to trade market with reasonable success.After all market can accomodate billions or trillions of methods. Remember i put quite of lot of effort and money into it. It was really tough task.

So obviously now i am going pretty slow in learning new methods and focus more on picking good trades with the existing system and developing it as a second career.


You are perfectly correct about 279. I was also having the same figure in my mind. That is why i mentioned 280-282 levels. 233 i have no idea but 260 may be .But then will it go there?

Regards

Saji

 

[soody]

5day RSI shows oversold condition.(Though oversold/overbought onditions can prevail for longer periods of time!)Trading strategy: Short on intraday highs of 297, 302 for targets of 290,287. A breakout is possible only if it closes consistently above 320!