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True and false Breakouts

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  #1  
Old 10th December 2006, 09:36 PM
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Default True and false Breakouts

hi,

all of us know breakouts when true , can be explosive and highly profitable!
but does any one know the high probable method to identify the true and false breakouts apart from just volume analysis. ???????

...........
cheers
winston
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  #2  
Old 10th December 2006, 09:44 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by winstonn View Post
hi,

all of us know breakouts when true , can be explosive and highly profitable!
but does any one know the high probable method to identify the true and false breakouts apart from just volume analysis. ???????

...........
cheers
winston
I know but ofcourse I cant tell

Basically thats the holy grail, when you can identify if a move is for real or not.

Rgds
CV
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  #3  
Old 10th December 2006, 09:48 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

smart man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i have read your posts and find u rational and logical , but know i know u r smart man!!!!!!

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  #4  
Old 10th December 2006, 10:01 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by winstonn View Post
smart man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i have read your posts and find u rational and logical , but know i know u r smart man!!!!!!
Yes...smart and slippery

Seriously I would be interested in the responses to your query, its basically the heart of trading. Not sure anyone who knows the answer will give a honest reply

CV

Last edited by CreditViolet; 10th December 2006 at 11:14 PM.
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  #5  
Old 10th December 2006, 11:36 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by winstonn View Post
hi,

all of us know breakouts when true , can be explosive and highly profitable!
but does any one know the high probable method to identify the true and false breakouts apart from just volume analysis. ???????

...........
cheers
winston
One method can be to use the 23.6% envelope rule which keeps you out of the false breakouts.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
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  #6  
Old 10th December 2006, 11:46 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

hi ashish,
it is great to hear from you! can u explain your method please!!
can you provide the back tested results for win / loss ratio , average profit for each winning trade , can this method work in all the environments of market like bear, bull , volatile to sideways

cheers,
winston
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  #7  
Old 10th December 2006, 11:55 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by winstonn View Post
hi ashish,
it is great to hear from you! can u explain your method please!!
can you provide the back tested results for win / loss ratio , average profit for each winning trade , can this method work in all the environments of market like bear, bull , volatile to sideways

cheers,
winston
The method is to add an envelope of 23.6% of the initial swing when the price enters a congestion zone. Will suggest you reading Joe Ross for a better understanding of the method.

Well, there is no method which works in all the markets but it keeps u away from false breakouts in any market.

About backtested results, I would suggest you to undertake the exrcise yourself as I do not undertake such mechanical backtesting exercises.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
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  #8  
Old 11th December 2006, 12:14 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by winstonn View Post
hi,

all of us know breakouts when true , can be explosive and highly profitable!
but does any one know the high probable method to identify the true and false breakouts apart from just volume analysis. ???????

...........
cheers
winston
Hi Winston,

The answer is hidden in your question ! A true brake out must have 'true' volume, otherwise kaputs !

Fibo.
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  #9  
Old 11th December 2006, 12:31 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

Quote:
Originally Posted by aca_trader View Post
The method is to add an envelope of 23.6% of the initial swing when the price enters a congestion zone. Will suggest you reading Joe Ross for a better understanding of the method.

Well, there is no method which works in all the markets but it keeps u away from false breakouts in any market.

About backtested results, I would suggest you to undertake the exrcise yourself as I do not undertake such mechanical backtesting exercises.

Best Regards,
--Ashish
Hi Ashish,

How about waiting for a pull back. In some cases we will miss out on opporunity as the script might not pull back but a pull back will get us closer to our S/l and also a low volume pull back and again a up move from the BO point will make sure of us entering more sure trades.

Regards

Rahul
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  #10  
Old 12th December 2006, 01:41 PM
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Default Re: True and false Breakouts

this thread is gonna be interesting

http://gulmohar-tree.blogspot.com/
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