Cotton

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rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
2008-04-20 01:00:00

Time to change strategies to fight hunger

Hunger is the food for thought now. And, this phenomenon is not restricted to any particular country. It is visible everywhere now.

Reasons are many. In fact, food security is back as a hot international issue. Consumers are facing high prices of food. And, if you thought that will help farmers realize better prices for their produce, you are mistaken.

Prices of foodstuff have risen 80 per cent over the last two years, rice prices are at a 19-year high, wheat is at a 28-year high and global food stocks are low.

With this happening one would expect farmers to have taken some benefits of these high prices already.

But paradoxically poverty continues to prevail in rural areas in Asia, with some 70 per cent of the poor deriving their living from agriculture one way or the other.

The World Bank has recently warned that 33 countries run the risk of social unrest. China, Vietnam and India have cut exports, while Indonesia has lowered its tariff on imports. Kazakhstan, a major wheat-exporting country, has increased its export tariffs.

In Indonesia, as in many other countries, high food prices are the main contributing factor to high current inflation, spreading its effect in the wider economy.

The wider global economy, though fed by high growth in China and India, is not free from shocks. The United States is in a recession, while many banks worldwide are still trying to count their losses from the US mortgage bubble.

The world is witnessing a truly unique event in the global economy. The long decline of prices for agriculture seems to have come to an end. Apparently the global food economy is now supply-constrained.

What can countries do? Very simple. In theory. Invest in agriculture, rural infrastructure, including irrigation, education and health and harmonize trade policies and tariffs applying to foodstuffs.

And design and conduct research and development programs, and use the results. But the effects of these intervention areas will only be felt after a while, and in the meantime policymakers have to deal with the here and now of food scarcity. By necessity short-term supply adjustment policies are needed.

One thing is certain: It is in the interests of rice-producing and rice-consuming countries to get together and set short-term policy agendas. Regional and subregional consultations are necessary; bilateral negotiations only will not provide the answers.
It is very important that in these talks the starting points are well-defined. To contribute some information to this, it is worthwhile to know how Indonesia solved food security questions in previous years because the future policies will by necessity be based on interventions that have worked.

In the years 1970-1990, when the rural economy in Java was primarily driven by expansion of rice production and yield growth, the government of Indonesia operated an intricate system whereby locally buffer stocks of rice were stored while in times of shortage the government purchased and imported rice for distribution
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
2008-04-18 13:15:09

Rain-hit Gujarat may produce less cotton this year

RAJKOT: Gujarat’s cotton crop has suffered hugely due to the unseasonal rains which lashed the state two weeks ago.

According to market reports, the cotton crop this season will be down to 100 lakh bales from the estimated 125 lakh bales (of 170 kg).

However, this year, the crop will be better than last year’s output. Last year, Gujarat produced 92 lakh bales of cotton. With the cash crop of groundnut being replaced by Bt Cotton variety over the last few years in the state, Gujarat has seen its cotton production share in the country go up from 17 per cent in 2001-02 to 40 per cent in 2007-08.

The area under cotton has increased from 16 lakh hectares in 2003-04 to 25 lakh hectares in 2007-08, whereas the area under groundnut has decreased from nearly 20 lakh hectares to 16 lakh hectares during the period.

Even Maharashtra farmers come to Gujarat to sell their cotton as they get better price appreciation in Gujarat.

Officials are now targeting to increase productivity using genetically-modified varieties, micro-irrigation and increasing sowing area under hybrid cotton to 13 lakh hectares, besides improving productivity of desi cotton by seed replacement and providing assistance for seed to farmers.

In 2005-06, Gujarat had the highest productivity, 728 kg per hectare, compared to the next three cotton-growing states — Tamil Nadu (688 kg/ha), Punjab (641 kg/ha) and Madhya Pradesh (510 kg/ha).
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
2008-04-12 12:00:55

Bt Cotton seed price row returns to Andhra

HYDERABAD: Andhra Pradesh government and the Bt-Cotton seed producing companies are at loggerheads again this year over the seed prices.

Last year also the seed companies had demanded price rise but the Andhra Pradesh government was adamant and ruled out any rise in seeds. The issue finally landed in court where the government got a favourable verdict.

The seed companies wanted to hike prices of Bt-I and Bt-II seeds. The firms also wanted to charge 23.30 per cent more (than that of Bt-I) for Bt-II seeds (on a packet of 450 gm), claiming that it gave more value to cotton farmers.

A packet of Bt seeds are being sold at Rs 750 in the state, following a legal battle with Monsanto (which provided Bt technology) and seed manufacturers. The price had been brought to Rs 750 from the earlier Rs 1,850.

At a press conference here on Friday, N Raghuveera Reddy, minister for agriculture, said a meeting was held with the seed manufacturers.

On their request to at least allow a hike for Bt-II seeds, the minister asserted that though the government was not against technology, it wouldn’t allow the companies to exploit the farmers. If you want to sell them (Bt-II seeds), sell them at Rs 750, he asserted.

There are concerns that if the government gave permission for a hike on Bt-II seeds, the companies could gradually reduce focus on Bt-I.

The minister said the scientists at the Acharya N G Ranga Agriculture University (ANGRAU) studied the benefits of Bt-I and II varieties and found that there had been no great impact on the yield. There, however, was protection against the bollworm.
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
What is Cotlook A-Index?

MUMBAI: Do you what is the Cotlook A-Index and the Cotlook A-Index? It is all concerning global cotton and this index monitors global cotton trade. And to know all about it, read below.

The Cotlook A-Index is the average of the cheapest five quotations from a selection of the main upland cottons traded internationally (19 origins). They are in Memphis/East, California/Arizona, Orleans/Texas, Tanzania, Turkey, India, Uzbekistan, Paraguay, Pakistan, Cte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Benin, Mali, Greece, Australia, Mexico, Syria, Brazil, China.

The Cotlook B-Index is an average of the cheapest three quotations for "Coarse Count" cotton - commonly in use for spinning coarse count yarn over the nine origins in Orleans/Texas, Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, Syria, Uzbekistan, China, Pakistan, Indiashipped to European ports.

World prices are monitored by means of price indexes (the "Cotlook Indexes", A and B) compiled by Cotlook Limited, a private UK cotton consultancy, and published daily in the Cotton Outlook. The Indexes are intended to be representative of the price level on the international raw cotton market.

Overall, fluctuations in cotton prices are determined by several factors, in particular: shifts in the level of demand and supply, which reflect changes in producing countries' cotton policies.

Differences in cotton prices may be attributable to a number of factors. Cotton prices vary, in particular, depending on the variety grown and the quality of the harvested cotton. For examples, ad hoc quotations are set for long-staple Egyptian cotton.

In addition, cotton-pricing mechanisms are affected by government support programmes, especially in the United States. Subsidisation regimes in several producing countries have added to the relative fragmentation of price formation for cotton.

According to a communication from the Commission of the European Communities to the Council and the European Parliament, due to subsidisation, prices paid to domestic cotton farmers were 90% and 154% above world prices in 2001/02 in the US and EU respectively.

It should be pointed out here that there is no world futures contract currently used as an international cotton price benchmark. Indeed, standard specifications of futures contracts traded on the New York Commodity Exchange correspond mainly to US cotton market fundamentals.

For the same reason, quotations at the Osaka Mercantile Exchange are not representative of world prices for raw cotton. Despite a punctual reduction of basis risk due to the increasing importance of US cotton on the world sector (and on price discovery mechanism), the use of futures instruments for the other origins (with the exception of Mexico, member of Alena and which might be in a position to use US futures markets as both prices are well correlated) is not always easy as spot and futures prices might suddenly diverge.

Any exogenous changes (e.g. trade policy) might eventually bring on the re-emergence of an important basis risk, with devastating spillovers on cotton hedgers.

The point of departure is generally the cash price for cotton set in actual transactions or through relatively short-term contracts for forward delivery (2 to 4 months).
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
2008-04-15 14:00:00

Soon, Blue Cotton to storm the world!
Commodity Online
MUMBAI: Move over Bt Cotton, here comes Blue Cotton. If the efforts of Monsanto bear fruit, soon you will get your jeans made from Blue Cotton.

Monsanto has envisaged the transfer of a gene from a blue flower to the cotton plant to produce blue cotton.

Monsanto’s current Blue Cotton programme is aimed at the jeans market ($10 billion in the US and 800 million in the UK) and involves the transfer of a gene from a blue flower to the cotton plant.

The efforts will not end with Blue Cotton. Further initiatives will be made to genetically manipulate the cotton plant to impart natural colour, modify fibre properties and impart pesticide and herbicide resistance.

Coloured cotton is also being produced not only by conventional genetic selection but also by direct DNA engineering. Therefore, naturally coloured cotton is not an innovation; it is a gift of nature to preserve the eco system.

Biotechnology makes it possible to produce cotton with improved fibre features. Agricetus has produced genetically engineered cotton, which contains a bacterial gene that produces a polyester-like substance that is reported to have the texture of cotton but to be much warmer.

According to Monsanto, the Blue Cotton is aimed at the market in the US. Soon, the trend may catch up with India also.
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
Blue cotton was never produced: Monsanto
Commodity Online 2008-04-19
MUMBAI: Monsanto has never produced blue cotton and is not likely to develop it either. Monsanto Holdings Pvt Ltd has informed that news about the company transferring a gene from a blue flower to cotton plant was incorrect and misleading.

The report which first appeared in Indian Textile Journal and South India Cotton Association (SICA) Bulletin, March 15, 2008 was also carried by Commodity Online (Soon, Blue Cotton to Storm the world).

Christopher Samuel, Senior Manager-Public Affairs clarified that a company called Agracetus was conducting a color cotton research program prior to acquisition of the company by Monsanto in 1996.

However the project was discontinued after its acquisition by Monsanto. “A product of that type was not actually produced from the Agracetus research program either. Monsanto has not supported work in this area - internally nor externally, and there was no blue cotton,” Christopher Samuel said.
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
The economist’s laws of supply and demand rose forth this week as cotton prices retreated in front of the April 24 first notice day of the New York May futures contract. Speculative funds continued to roll forward their long May positions by selling the May contract and buying the July contract. The six month supply of cotton stored around the world pressured prices lower. Additionally, certificated stocks, for the fist time ever, climbed above one million bales. At week’s end certificated stocks were 1,013,138 million bales with another 128,969 bales waiting review. While these stocks will continue a slow growth higher, the one million bale plus level is more than adequate to keep a lid on prices possibly through mid June. Yet, the December contract can track higher in sympathy with the grains and oilseeds prices. Too, as the growing season progresses, the December contract will move higher in the absence of more favorable growing weather around the globe.

Limited to full embargos by various countries are bringing new meaning to the world food crisis. Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil, India, Thailand, and Vietnam are included in the countries that are restricting exports of either food grains, feed grains, oilseeds or poultry products. These actions will, from time to time, exacerbate the food crisis and increase price volatility in the respective futures markets of all agricultural markets. In turn, that volatility will flow to the cotton market throughout the growing season as 2009 futures prices begin to anticipate the demand for planting acreage during that calendar year.

In deference to the reduced cotton plantings in California this season, USDA announced it will conduct objective yield surveys only in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and North Carolina. These six states accounted for 78 percent of the total Upland cotton produced in the U.S. in the 2005-07 crop years.

Export sales lagged during the week ending April 10, 2008 as net sales totaled only 143,500 RB. Upland sales totaled 134,600 RB while Pima sales were 8,900 RB. China (48,500 RB); Turkey and Korea were the primary buyers of Upland. Pakistan (2,900 RB); India and Italy were the primary buyers of Pima. Export shipments continue to run about 100,000 bales below the level required to reach the USDA estimate of 14.5 million bales. Weekly exports totaled 313,600 RB with Upland accounting for shipments of 283,700 RB while Pima shipments were 29,900 RB. Primary destinations for Upland were China (109,800 RB); Mexico and Turkey. The primary destinations for Pima shipments were China (12,400 RB); India and Indonesia.

Despite weaker prices this week, export sales were not thought to be impressive. However, with Friday’s lower prices fresh demand was uncovered as mills and merchants appeared to support the market as the Friday session eased to a snail’s pace.

It is not clear whether a commercial sponsor will step forward and take delivery of the certificated stocks or whether the very active spread trading will be the bridge from the May to the July contract. The market has room to move three to four cents lower or as much as eight cents higher once the delivery question is answered.
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
LATEST RAW COTTON ARRIVALS
(Position as on 19th (April 2008)
The per day arrivals are reported around 50,000 bales.

States 2007-08 2006-07
Quantity in lakh bales of 170 kgs

Punjab 21.20 23.75
Haryana 14.85 14.25
Rajasthan 8.85 8.25
North Total 44.90 46.25
Gujarat 102.00 85.00
Maharashtra 58.75 47.55
Madhya Pradesh 19.25 16.75
Central Total 180.00 149.30
Andhra Pradesh 42.00 31.75
Karnataka 6.70 5.15
Tamil Nadu 2.70 2.70
South Total 51.40 39.60
Others 1.80 1.00
Total 278.10 236.15
Plus Loose lint 11.30 11.25
Grand Total 289.40 247.40
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
China Mar cotton imports down 18pc
Beijing - China's cotton imports in March fell 18 per cent on year to 213,166 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Tuesday. Total imports in the first quarter rose 3.9 per cent on year.

22/04 10:48 ICE cotton drops amid weak commodities

21/04 17:31 Cotton futures end sharply down

21/04 15:43 Cotton lint likely to remain bullish

21/04 15:26 Cotton lint at new high in Punjab 2400/-maund
 

rakeshmalik

Well-Known Member
Kapas NCDEX April
Cover short positions at Rs 502.80 or below as the opportunity arises. Expect a rise towards Rs 506.60-Rs 508.60. Trend is still down and can turn up on close above Rs 510.

24/04 08:19 Kapas Khali NCDEX MAY

23/04 17:33 Cotton lint surges in north India cotton traded 2450/-maund

23/04 11:30 Cotton futures slip marginally

23/04 10:38 ICE cotton bounces in correction
 
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