I agree but i have seen sensex always fills gaps specially the big sized ones which are present now.... also retracement of previous fall is bit extended but not out of woods... historically speaking I remember the situation in 2000 when the interest rate hikes stopped which boosted the US markets for a short time but then the same cracked due to anticipation of fall in rates & slowdown in growth... I am not convinced & ealier in pankaj's thread I mentioned levels of 11.5 / 11750 being achieved maybe even strech to 12K but I would not deceive myself thinking gaps may be by passed... also Jai you are right a gap does become a major support till the rally lasts, see the last rally from 8.8K to 11K or the one from 11k to 12.6K...same situation, given the benefit of doubt 2 gaps may be filled till 10,252 & maintain the higher bottom trend...
on a lighter note cnbc analysts have become bullish again means a fall is near...
Q) At this moment what side of the position you are taking? Long, Short or Standing Aside.
At any point of time in the market, there is always a possibility of going up or down. Inspite of the good bull run we had, didn't we go down in May. That risk is always there trading in the market. But, you have to attribute the probability to both sides of the trade (UP/DOWN).
Q) What do you think is the probability of market going up verus down?
If it is 50/50 or 60/40 or 40/60, it is better to stand out. My view is 80 UP/20 DOWN. This can change if the indexes go back to previous trading range. Really, it would take 1 day that to happen. Again, we have to weigh the probability of that happening.
OK. Lets think for a moment you theory has a value (what I mean is 70 DOWN/ 30 UP). Then
Q) Are you going to take short position now? If not, what market conditions will make you to take short position? If yes, can you suggest some scrips that I can look at?