too many gaps...

[Czar]

Q) At this moment what side of the position you are taking? Long, Short or Standing Aside.

At any point of time in the market, there is always a possibility of going up or down. Inspite of the good bull run we had, didn't we go down in May. That risk is always there trading in the market. But, you have to attribute the probability to both sides of the trade (UP/DOWN).

Q) What do you think is the probability of market going up verus down?

If it is 50/50 or 60/40 or 40/60, it is better to stand out. My view is 80 UP/20 DOWN. This can change if the indexes go back to previous trading range. Really, it would take 1 day that to happen. Again, we have to weigh the probability of that happening.

OK. Lets think for a moment you theory has a value (what I mean is 70 DOWN/ 30 UP). Then

Q) Are you going to take short position now? If not, what market conditions will make you to take short position? If yes, can you suggest some scrips that I can look at?

well I have closed my longs & have created shorts which I will increase as per circumstances... & as for scripts techinically there are none which are weak but then after the weakness is shown its usually too late to short as there is a very good chance of being caught on the wrong foot. a correction / pullback is due & I may re-examine my short positions on the intensity of the correction... this rally is coming straight from 10K & the exhaustion gap+ various scripts of top end of B.Band + the tugging of index heavies to cover the selling in other sectors is a tell-tale sign for me... four straight white candle weeks 3 white candle months & 7 updays is streching thing a bit too much especially after the recent carnage, the shorts are being sqeezed out

I have some shorts in SBI / Tata motor & am planing to add grasim & siemens

but for others you are absoloutely right market is now at 50/50 levels & time to quit longs & wait rather than buy or short for me the tilt happened on y'day's gap up & RIL's tug up, so its 70(sell) / 15 (buy) / 15 (watch)

 

[adilsaleem]

Baron what about the money being put in by the FII's
I guess they are buying a lot, atleast the last two days

 

[Czar]

that's why i said initially the fall shud be limited, though I think a lot of the funds are being done in bulk deals & I also saw on cnbc they bought y'day in some ipo a large chunk... but a trap is in the offing... take care

 

[Czar]

a gap was nicely covered today... so the steam continues...

 

[shrinivas]

a gap was nicely covered today... so the steam continues...

Czar my friend, the market always provieds opportunity to make money.....
If I'm sure market is going up, I make money, If I'm sure market is going down, I make fast money......I hope you get what I mean......but the few points up and down leaves one confused and hence no chance of making money...that is the time for gamblers..and in gambling as you know, chances of loosing are more...as of now, my dear friend, I do accept that there is lot of steam, but this is not at all the time to short..i would say to go with the trend.....you can merely add or short by looking at the trend..better way is as I do...I enter a scrip on a pullback in uptrend..continue with it and sell it once the last 3 days low record is broken......i sell 1/3rd at this point, if the scrip break it once more, I'm out of the trade...Trust me friend, I'm making money, never losing as of now....have a strict stop loss (sorry to use this term in most of my posts, but i want that no member should commit the mistake that i did)....and Czar, you can be lucky once, not always...

I would short only when the market creeps the other way...and would totally reverse the trades if market shows the southward journey by breaking 3 days low cont'nsly...

all the best.....

ganesh

 

[pasha]

On a lighter note cnbc analysts have become bullish again means a fall is near...

Reminds me of an old quote, by Shakespeare,
"Many a truth is spoken in jest"
In this particular case, the jest is the truth.

 

[neerav]

this gap sort of thing looks scary

 

[Czar]

from august 18 till y'day FII have sold in derivatives - Rs. 2,255 cr.

& the market has'nt even budged, same as like they were selling in april we were making new highs & in may we tanked... so I ask who is holding the market up for them to sell without the fall ?? & then when it fall the media cries its because of FII selling, the whole india starts crying Foul FII

 

[shrinivas]

from august 18 till y'day FII have sold in derivatives - Rs. 2,255 cr.

& the market has'nt even budged, same as like they were selling in april we were making new highs & in may we tanked... so I ask who is holding the market up for them to sell without the fall ?? & then when it fall the media cries its because of FII selling, the whole india starts crying Foul FII

That's what I say...Let them sell, you keep your s/l in place...let the market make recent highs.....let the media watch it...let it spread the news...let the market come down...let the s/l get triggered...and let you......no no, and then you exit...but why to leave the profit till then...
and you never know my friend, these FII's can start buying any moment and the market keeps the uptrack....

I seldom think now what market is going to do tomorrow....i have stocks above my purchase price...my s/l above my purchase price, increasing everyday....let the market decide its course...

all the best czar !!!!!!!!!!!!!

ganeshhity

 

[Czar]

hmm i guess you are right... trying to predict leaves you in a soup... best to you too...