What is best indicator, phenomenon, system to catch Wipshaws, non-trends, trap?

[oxusmorouz]

Thanks Shreya

- Happy for you to learn that after years of hard work you have arrived at successful trading system...good on you...

Just wondering were you able to trade following possible whipsaw?? Did your system guide you to some winning trades in following scenario?

How come you have access to future data? The date in that chart shows 29-Jan-09!

 

[actuaryinmaking]

How come you have access to future data? The date in that chart shows 29-Jan-09!

oxusmorouz - perhapses it is were the mouse pointer was while taking screen shot...this is as of today NF 1M......!

 

[AW10]

How come you have access to future data? The date in that chart shows 29-Jan-09!

IMO, decision to go short is taken too early. When there is such a strong bullish move without any retracement, it is obvious that buyers will come back at small drop. Trend follower will wait for the break of pivot low of this correction to go short.

Easiest approach to avoid this could be to -- skip first trade signal given against the STRONG TREND by our system. To implement this, we need to define what is STONG trend ? ADX value can be useful here..

Happy Trading

 

[oxusmorouz]

Easiest approach to avoid this could be to -- skip first trade signal given against the STRONG TREND by our system. To implement this, we need to define what is STONG trend ? ADX value can be useful here..

The ADX (assuming the parameter considered for calculation is default in both our calculation) by itself skips a good percentage of the trend reversal and the reversal that follows the reversal, if it is sharp. A better utilization of it would be to dynamically control the look back period of a regular time series. I have not yet come across something that actually uses ADX and does better than the average joe system.

Regarding separating periods of trend and non-trend, putting the words of those the self proclaimed experts aside (not sure how to describe em exactly but you can consider those who talk about the role of fibonacci in their mysterious 95% winning system in this category) , "no" indicator exists (in at least in the public domain) which can justify its role. A way of solving this would be to bear with the drawdowns and treat is as a routine phase instead of trying to achieve the impossible and complication issues.

oxusmorouz - perhapses it is were the mouse pointer was while taking screen shot...this is as of today NF 1M......!

Ah darn! Silly me. Thanks

 

[learn2trade08]

sir,
that is the name of the contract,this month expiry is on 29th jan.

How come you have access to future data? The date in that chart shows 29-Jan-09!

 

[actuaryinmaking]

sir,
that is the name of the contract,this month expiry is on 29th jan.

..and of course how wonderful it would have been have we had access to Future data...the mystery of Whipsaws would have been self solved....darn...that could have been 100% successful system.

 

[imbharatk8]

awaiting shreya's comments on this chart

 

[shreya555]

Thanks Shreya

- Happy for you to learn that after years of hard work you have arrived at successful trading system...good on you...

Just wondering were you able to trade following possible whipsaw?? Did your system guide you to some winning trades in following scenario?

nisha, it is too early to call it whipsaw. let market take some morr time. any candle closes below 3054 , it would be true trap and bears would gain full control, ( as a rule it should happen within following 2-6 candles or else it is not a bull trap ) but for this to happen no candle should go high above todays high before this phenomenon, if todays high is taken out by candle closing tommorow, expect market to touch atleast 3250 to 3300 . my view is according to the time frame in your chart

good luck, shreya

 

[kunal2807]

Dear shreya555
you told earlier that you will guide your fellow traders to design their own trading system.you were to start your guidence from may.is it still on or you have changed your mind?i think lot of novice traders like me are awaiting your valuable insight.
Regards
kunal

 

[ash.paul]

. A way of solving this would be to bear with the drawdowns and treat is as a routine phase instead of trying to achieve the impossible and complication issues.

Exactly!! It totally depends upon the individuals trading skill. As soon I see a DoubleCandleHigh LowerClose which itself signals a bearishness. I would have just shorted it after the following candle takes the support away(keeping in mind its a uptrend) and kept a stoploss above the support area which is now resistance.
But when I see a next candle as Bullish Pin or a bullish spinning top on the support area and on bullish trend, I will try my best to exit breakeven or with little loss and enter on limit buy order above the break of that bullish candle on top.
And again the support in the above case can be any thing totally on individual's discretion personally I use simple horizontal zones mostly previous HL for a uptrend.
As Oxusmorouz has rightly said, we have to accept losses, it is the most important part of this business but managing looses by cutting it soon and letting the winners run is what seperates a looser from a winner.
Cheers!