Wealth Creation

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Investment Experience

http://www.subramoney.com/2015/09/investment-experience-learning/#sthash.C5PdtMJh.dpuf

Some of my learning from investing:
  1. If your family is not risk oriented / risk understanding it is difficult for you to invest / trade in equities.
  2. Investing maybe a part time activity, but equity trading is a full time activity.
  3. If you cannot make equity trading your full time activity, DO NOT make it a hobby. It is too damn expensive.
  4. See how a person reacts to a significant loss based on your trading ideas. If it a relationship spoiler, do not do business with him.
  5. Beware of dentists, florists, driver, barber, vet, dietician, – anybody who wants to give you tips.
  6. You can spend a lifetime in learning who is a good ‘tip’ provider. In most cases it is goodamn luck.
  7. Only liars get the bottom and top of the market. Retail investors get the top for buying and bottom for selling. Normally.
  8. A fund manager can average Icici bank from Rs. 300 to Rs. 1200 and on the way down to Rs. 400. YOU CANNOT.
  9. As a trader stop losses are important. As an investor averaging MAY work. Only experience tells you which to use when.
  10. Have a small number of securities. Have enough confidence to stake at least 5% of your equity portfolio in one share.
  11. Learn to take losses quickly, cleanly and without a baggage. However write down the learning in a book.
  12. There is not much to learn in debt investing as long as you stick to Post office / bank deposits, but learn about inflation.
  13. Long term tax in equities is NIL. Dividends are tax free. Use this knowledge to increase your wealth substantially.
  14. Create a nicely balanced portfolio and have it reviewed by a sensible investor.
  15. Past experience and data is useful as a guide, not as something cast in stone.
  16. Do not lose your friends, spouses, parents, money anywhere. The tensions are not worth it. Intentions do not matter.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Investment learnings
http://www.subramoney.com/2016/03/some-of-my-learning/

This cannot be original for sure. It is the result of lots of reading (subconscious cut paste), learning from health related stuff (subconscious cut paste), experience (original mistakes), client mistakes (even tried to prevent a few), …so if you find it common to something somewhere (even my own old post, pardon me):
  1. It is not easy to go against the tide especially if you talk to a lot of people. Silence is Golden.
  2. The market can be irrational far far longer than your patience. I have Ta Mo Dvr and I keep wondering why people are not doing an arbitrage on Share and dvr.
  3. Greed, Fear, etc. do not matter. You cannot even make out when your greed turned to fear and the reverse. Forget reacting.
  4. Picking a fund manager who will consistently beat the Russell 9000 over 17 years is IMPOSSIBLE in the US.
  5. Picking a fund manager who will consistently beat the sensex in India is easy. Not because theses skills are great, but because the Index is badly constructed.
  6. Experts appearing on media are either being paid to be there, are building their own brand or are just vela and come on TV for a social time pass.
  7. As long as nobody keeps a subject wise or scrip wise what experts say, experts an talk like they make no mistakes..
  8. Women think men know all about finance and men think women know all about cooking. Not true!!!
  9. Men and women have to learn about finance and cooking. However it is easier said than done
  10. We underplay the role of luck. I was lucky to spend my childhood with Gujarati friends who breathed stocks
  11. Great companies need not make great investments
  12. Great companies do not slip down in one day, but the decay and death can be multi year, multi decade a process
  13. Great wealth can be made by a concentrated portfolio, but once made it has to be protected by diversifying the portfolio.
  14. Dramatically reducing mistakes is a far superior strategy than trying to spot multibaggers
  15. Legendary investors have largely picked up a few multi baggers and then waited for compounding to work
  16. People claim to understand compounding, but do not have the patience to wait for ‘n’ to work
  17. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are going to under perform the index
  18. Sell all the shares / mutual fund **** in your portfolio. Put it in an etf. Keep repeating process annually.
  19. Accepting your mistakes is very important. Sit with a friend and ask him to review portfolio – FOR A FEE.
  20. Spend one hour a month discussing mistakes during the month. Write down in a notebook. Next week summarize learning
  21. Warren Buffett’s returns in absolute terms is like Sir Don Bradman’s. It is of a bygone era. Things have changed now.
  22. Warren Buffett is a greater compounding theory and less of a stock picking theory.
  23. Discipline is brilliant to see and appreciate. You benefit only if YOU do.
  24. MBA schools CANNOT teach equity. Not enough professors who have created wealth.
  25. Great wealth has been created by involuntary inertia. Later on packaged as strategy.
  26. If you bought Eicher Motors for the great trucks they make, but made money on the motorcycle, keep quite.
  27. If you bought Hdfc Ltd. shares for the home finance business, keep silent.
  28. Go and get success. I can weave a story around that. Later on I will tell you how to believe it.
  29. I have seen many NICE and humble people making a lot of money. Is it a pattern of confirmatory bias I have no clue.
  30. The more time a person appears on TV the less accurate he is likely to be.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
How to select a mutual fund…

http://www.subramoney.com/2010/01/how-to-select-a-mutual-fund-part-2/

Selecting a mutual fund for investing is a very important step indeed. It is not just important it is crucial. However it is the second step, not the first.

It is surprising at the number of people I meet or hear from – they all have same questions. So when they ask me ‘How do we select a mutual fund?’ for me it is an amusing question. So like all self respecting advisors I start with the dreaded line- “Well, it depends…..’

Then I ask them – “What are your financial goals, if any?”. Now only if you have big long term goals does the choice of a mutual fund really matter. If you are investing for a short period of time – you are investing in say a liquid fund. It hardly matters in which liquid fund you invest – the performance gap between two liquid funds is not so high. Choose the liquid fund with a high AUM (assets under management) – and one which gives good service in terms of redemption on the phone or net, or such considerations.

However if you are looking for a longer term investment – which means you are looking to be invested for at least 8 to 10 years, you are looking to invest in equity mutual funds. This article is aimed at selecting a good equity mutual fund for a long term.

1. The most important first step is to have an investment goal. A fantastic fund selection done without having an investment goal is completely useless. You should know the reason for your investment, how long you can be in the investment, at what stage you will re-allocate, etc. before you make your first investment.

2. Your focus will lead to the correct asset allocation – the very important factor which will decide how much money you will put into an equity fund.

3. Do your homework: Buy large cap well diversified good quality funds. Do not buy opportunities funds, international funds, contra funds as a staple part of your portfolio.

4. All funds in India are no load funds – which means there is no sales cost. This is good and it means all your money gets invested. For a large cap equity fund, it may not make too much sense to pay somebody to pick the fund for you, try doing it yourself.

5. Have a demonic watch on the asset management charges. As a fund starts to do well, it should attract a lot of investors, and as its assets increase it should keep dropping its asset management charges. Look at well managed funds with charges below 1.9% p.a. – there are many.

6. Look at the portfolio turnover ratio – the greater the ratio, the more is your total cost. One cost which is not visible to the investor is the brokerage that the fund scheme pays. This is a function of the turnover of the portfolio. So a fund with a lower turnover would be incurring lesser costs.

7. The asset management company’s team is important too! Look for experienced teams where the managers have gone through a few business cycles. Managers who have not seen a down market can be very myopic, and those managers who have been through a prolonged slow down very pessimistic. You need a nice blend in the team.

8. True to label: When you buy a large cap fund, you are buying a large cap fund, simple. If a fund says it is a large cap fund it should not be buying mid cap, small cap etc. just because large caps are currently out of favor. It is your choice to be in a large cap fund and your fund manager should respect it.

9. Philosophy matching: Some fund houses are cooler and calmer compared to the others. See which philosophy suits you. For example Templeton says Franklin India blue chip is a ‘growth’ oriented, large cap fund, whereas Templeton India Growth fund is a ‘value’ oriented fund – see what suits you. Hdfc mutual fund on the other hand does not classify itself into ‘growth’ or ‘value’ labels.

10. Fund management is by a team or a star fund manager: Fund management is a part science and part art. The fund manager will surely leave a stamp, however, some fund houses have been able to create teams and systems to handle the departure of fund managers – this gives you greater peace of mind. A star fund manager could leave or even worse just drop dead – and you keep wondering ‘now what’! Internationally and in the Indian context well performing funds (over say 10 years) have seen very stable management teams and CIOs.

11. Over extremely large periods of time it is really difficult to beat a well managed index fund. Currently all fund houses show schemes beating the index, but beware of mathematics! All fund houses put a small * and say calculation does not include loads. Do a small calculation if loads are included just too many schemes would have under performed the indices. So if you are not looking for too much excitement look for a index fund with fund charges south of 1% per annum.

12. Index funds with the sensex as a benchmark are at least theoretically supposed to be more aggressive than an index fund with nifty as the benchmark. Frankly it does not matter – if in doubt split your investment amount. The co-relation between nifty and sensex is quite high.

13. When selecting a large cap equity fund choose ones with as broad a benchmark as possible. It is better to choose a fund with CNX 500 as a benchmark rather than say the sensex. Fund managers may have a greater flexibility between large caps, small caps, etc.

14. Do not chase performance. The fund which has performed well in one quarter may not perform well in the next quarter. Funds with a good long term top quartile performance is far superior than to a fund scheme which has one top position and one bottom position. Remember long term investing is like running a marathon – stamina is more important than speed.

15. At the top in the well run large cap funds are Hdfc top 200, Dsp top 100, Principal Large cap fund, Franklin India blue chip, and Hdfc Equity fund come to attention. This list is not exhaustive and many fund distributors and banks have their own favorites. This list passes the test prescribed above – of good consistent returns, good long term performance, team going through a bull phase and a bear phase, true to label, etc. Importantly as the fund size has increased these schemes have reduced the asset management charges and thus improved the total return to the investor.

16. Invest only by the SIP mode especially if you are investing for a period of say 5 years. If your investment horizon is upwards of 7 years even a lump sum would do – but seeing ones portfolio hurts!

The most important thing, like John Templeton said ‘Start with a prayer, it helps!’.
 
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TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
11. Over extremely large periods of time it is really difficult to beat a well managed index fund. Currently all fund houses show schemes beating the index, but beware of mathematics! All fund houses put a small * and say calculation does not include loads. Do a small calculation if loads are included just too many schemes would have under performed the indices. So if you are not looking for too much excitement look for a index fund with fund charges south of 1% per annum.
Nice blog and article. But Disagree here, this is not applicable in India so far. Maybe because Sensex and Nifty are not good indices for investment.
Or perhaps price discovery is not efficient enough here. Or some other reason. MFs beat even CNX500 consistently. In future maybe we can see if MF are able to beat new Value/Quality indices from NSE - but even those are rather small no of stocks.

I dont know why people keep repeating this. Just look at the data. There is no load. he himself said in (4). Exit load is only if you exit early. There are expenses, but performance reports includes them - so its transparent. Good MFs have beaten indices over long term rather consistently.
Index funds would preform worse than Index - they will have some tracking error/costs And 1% expense is very large for index fund. US index funds like from vanguard have ultra low expenses.

Other thing people say is survivor bias. But i dont think its applicable here. We have large number of funds that beat it consistently. Just pick few of them and they will beat index again in long term. Our indices are not as good as US ones.
 
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amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Lessons of Personal Finance from Cricket !

https://akashrathiblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/27/lessons-of-personal-finance-from-cricket/

That freaking last over teaches us a few lessons.

Here is how:

Bangladesh needs 12 runs in last over and Over a billion people are on edge with their seats.

1. Pandya goes for 2 fours in first 3 balls. At this point game seems over for India. But Pandya still keeps his head to ball some what sensibly for last 3 balls.

Finance Lession 1- Have the patience even if the markets have hit a rock bottom and are squeezing your lungs. Just hang in there with your SIP in full swing. Bouncing back is a sure probability.

2 . Mushfiqur hits second four in last over and punches in air. Just 2 runs needed in 3 balls. So they have won he thinks. The Bangla dugout stands clapping. Wrong assumption.

Life Lession 2- In a bull market when the markets are perched up at a very great height don’t start believing that this is a one way upward journey. Continue with asset allocation. All could change before you realise

3. Two runs needed in last ball. A billion people watching are trembling with nerves. Dhoni remains cool showing no emotion. On the last ball when bilion minds have are confused, he has sense to not throw the ball and run the batsman out. He knows he has won , yet he doesnt jump into air or punches his fist.

Life Lession 3- Equanimity and dispassion is key to master one’s mind. No excessive joy in good time and no excessive sorrow in unfavorable times is how one should invest. Just keep the goal in mind and keep excitement at bay

4. One freak hit and Bangladesh could have won. One run in last over and it could have been a tie. Anything was possible like a random chance at toss of dice. But a champion team is a champion team. Yes Bangladesh may have won yesterday with a little luck. But between the two teams the champion team was India. Even if Bangladesh had won yesterday it would not have made them a better team than India.

Life Lession 4: Similarly the markets may maul you at times and beat you down. But if you are a champion investor with equanimity and loads of patience, you would eventually rise and show your class as a great investor.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
For 2-3 cr per annum one needs to have several income streams like day trading,swing trading,investments in stocks,mutual funds ,real estate etc

Big capital people don't put all their money in a single income source,they diversify. But first target making 25-30 Lacs per annum further income source ideas you will get after you cross that threshold.Do not Ferget to pay your income tax on all the earnings.

Smart_trade
:clapping::clapping::clapping:
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
New financial year has started and usually beginning of the year is a good time to think about the previous year and what we want to achieve in the current year. Few thoughts :

1) Think about the previous year, what you could have done better and what resources are required to do better.

2)Set goals for the current year,break those down in monthly goals.Analyse the targets met and variance from the targets every month and reasons for that variance.Goals should be little hard to achieve but must be reasonable.Goal could be as simple as being profitable in atleast 9 Months out of 12 months of the current year.

3 ) Plan for future. We traders don't have any financial security so start building your own security nest...start a small SIP in a mutual fund,if you have accumulated some money,think of booking some real estate.These investments will give you different streams of future income.Keep written notes about all your investments.

4) Have good life insurance cover so that people dependent on you will not face financial difficulties if something happens to you. Invest part of your earnings for a separate fund which should not be touched and kept for medical expenses if some medical emergency comes up in the family. Medical care is very expensive now a days and some major illness of a family member can set you back by 5-6 lacs easily. So plan to have a good corpus in this fund.

5) Invest in Public Providend Fund and ELSS mutual fund.

6) Plan for atleast 1 long and 2 short vacations every year with the family....absolutely must for us.

Many more points could be added but enough for first week of the new financial year.

Smart_trade
Words of wisdom from ST Sir !!!
:clapping::clapping::clapping:
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
The Stock market is NOT the economy

http://www.subramoney.com/2016/03/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/

For many of us there is a tendency to think that when the economy does well, the stock markets should do well. Right? Well, not so fast. There is too much evidence to the contrary. When the Chinese Economy was galloping at 8.5% p.a. its investors made only 1.7% p.a. When the American economy was crawling at 2% p.a. its shareholders earned 15% p.a. Exactly during that period. The UK Economy grew at 2% and their equity shareholders wealth grew at 6.3%.

How does this happen? I remember reading in The Economist about this being true over the decade of the 70s too…when this theory was back tested!

Why does this happen? well I do have some scholarly studies to fall back on – but let us just pick up the conclusion of the scholarly study: The report concluded that it “found no statistical link between one year’s GDP growth rate and the next year’s investment returns.”

Well, let us take the case of India. If you use Danth Kanti tooth paste, use Baba Ramdev soap and shampoo, biscuits from the local baker, eat bread from a local bakery (or your wife bakes it herself), you buy a Motorola phone, a Samsung phone, a Haier Refrigerator, a Mitsubishi aircon, a Hyundai car and fly Indian airlines, your spending is not being felt by the market. It is just not visible to the market.

You eat out in a restaurant, you drink imported beer, your children drink Coke and Pepsi. You eat at McDonald, and Kentucky Fried Chicken. So that part of your ‘branded’ eating out and its margins are lost to the equity market.

The cash that you pay to the teacher for tuition, the cash that you paid to the caterer, the cash that you paid to the taxi driver – are all lost to the economy itself, so the market cannot capture it at all. The money paid to the grocer, vegetable vendor,…etc. is also lost to the market. Now consider a situation where GoI forces all companies wanting to sell in India to be listed in India – remember George Fernandez did that? then we will have Coke, Pepsi, Monsanto, Samsung, LG, Mitsubishi, …all being listed in India. This will dramatically change things – hey hold your horses, there is no such provision.

Growth economy stocks (like Growth company stocks) are always available at a high price – so what really works? What does work? Over the long run, it is valuation; the higher the starting price-earnings ratio when you buy a market, the lower the return over the next 10 years. Many fund managers must have told you this at various points in time. So if you entered the market when the PE of the market was 10, you will get the full impact of the growth – when the pe of the market goes to say 30. Eps growth + PE expansion is a deadly combination to ride.

Only problem for people like me is I do not have a portfolio in a currency other than rupee…maybe I should invest in SnP or Nasdaq. Developed markets are like Value buys, you can get decent dividend, currency appreciation, more scientific and better regulated markets and less volatility. So if your portfolio is about 1 Million US $, it is time to look at investing abroad – through a slew of funds available in India.
 

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