Warning Signs

#52
#53
Uashish ,

Note its no pre-conceived notion rather its interpreting the data we have on hand in to reliable information.

Actually it is the findings of this report that made me look at the relationship between USD/JPY and the market movements more seriously........infact u will note that when the yen depreciates the market moves up and vice-versa(thats the influence of yen carry trade) . In feb 2007, yen was at 115 against dollar and now it has depreciated to around 120.51 ( infact it depreciated to as low as 123,124) and around this time the market has also moved up significantly. Infact i believe this could be a extremely reliable indicator that studies market liquidity..........
Now a lot more research needs to be done in order to build a case around it and iam already doing that ..
yen under 115 Vs Dollar , liquidity crunch and the same old problem ..........

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_zbJQdTAZnM&refer=home
 

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#56
In 2007 Sunil was right in his analysis. Now he says it is very difficult for Nifty to sustain the higher levels. Let us see. Here is what he has written

"The conditions are not right. Nifty index has done +3.1% YTD. Out of 1362 stocks, only 238 have out performed the benchmark Nifty while the remaining 1123 have under performed. So the ratio of out performers to under performers is just 238/1123 or 0.21. Now let us check the Nifty 50 stocks. 15 stocks have out performed the Nifty index while 35 have under performed so the ratio here is 15/35 or 0.43. Out of 35, 31 are actually in the red (well below their January 1, 2013 prices). So given this kinda data I don't think we are gonna make any new highs"
 

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