Hi rockyrobust
Well Let us carry this following mindset-at least give a try.
With every opportunity,you invite risk.
Are you looking to only find the problem? or rise above the problem and look for unique solution? Think it -We are here to handle & solve the problem & overcome it.
IN MARKET,YOU NEED TO OUT-THINK YOUR COMPETITION-and this is no easy job-but it can be done.
SomeHow i dont agree with 50ma thing.But we need to investigate.
But here is my solution.
just add 2*ATR(10) ,4*atr(10) TO 200MA on hourly chart you get target level 1 and target level2 and so on.
Keep moderate expectation and take profit as targets are hit-dont be greedy.
Of course your stoploss can be atr(10) below 200ma OR EVEN 0.25*atr(10) or 0.5*atr(10).
test it get confidence and then use it.
One more thing
Every time price approaches the 200 MA after a downtrend, the first time is called old girl friend syndrome.
Suppose a guy had a girl friend and he did not visit her long time-no calls-no gifts-no visits.
now suddenly he feels for her and goes and knocks her door-she opens it but doesnt allow him in as she is obviously angry for his ignoring her so long.
she questions him -why so long you forgot about me & suddenly remember me now?you never called-never sent greetings or gifts-never visited me in 5-6 months-she shuts the door.NO ENTRY.
Now the guy thinks,goes back,buys flowers,gifts and goeS back begS her she opens door,allows him in.
This is same way price reaches 200ma after a while it doesnt allow price to pass thru but sends it back.
price goes down-revisits 200ma now with renewed vigour. this time(since second visiT,with flowers,gifts etc),price is allowed to go thru.
POINT to note
CREATE YOUR OWN TARGETS AND STOPLOSS WHEREVER YOU ARE.
MANAGE THINGS.DONT BE AN ONLOOKER-SILENT SPECTATOR.