View on USD/JPY: weekly forecast

[aFairShake]

March 12, 2007 - March 16, 2007

View on USD/JPY: double bottom

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+2525 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

Last week USD/JPY currency pair established a new minimum and then went on to a correction. The 115.20 level unexpectedly came out as a support. The pair has almost come to December, 2006 minimum at 114.40. Then unexpected ascending impulse led to a sharp rise to the 118-shape area. Double bottom was left below.

It is very hard to forecast exactly the currency fluctuations after its 700-pip decrease for the last 4 weeks. Last week our two scripts were partly fulfilled: "A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 area" (50%) and "Side exchange fluctuations within the 116.00-119.00 area" (10%). In the beginning of the week the pair easily decreased to the new minimum levels from December, 2006 at 115.20, but December minimum at 114.40 was never achieved. The further correction to the upside made prospect for greater rise. At 4-hour chart there is a double bottom shape. Now an uptrend to 118.50-119.00 is supposed. Thus it is possible to expect for the pair decrease after any correction maximum has been met.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 117.00-119.00 area.
Current correction may remain in 117.00-119.00 range. The low margin is the double bottom neck line, and the upper margin is the mentioned shape workout target.

Script 2 (40%): A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 area.
A neck line break down at 117.00 level area is necessary for this script. A potential target price for this downtrend stands at the December, 2006 minimum. This script is also logically continues a downward course trend. This script may lead in the future to deeper decline to the May, 2006 minimum area at the 109.00 level.

Script 3 (10%): An upward trend to 120.00.
It must not be ruled out a higher increase, admittedly to the 120.00/120.90 level area. Thus, after such an upward trend a following downward trend is expected.

Resistances
118.50 - expected double bottom shape level.
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
117.00 - neck line area.
115.20 - last week achieved support.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
109.00 - May, 2006 minimum.

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[aFairShake]

March 19, 2007 - March 23, 2007

View on USD/JPY: shape after the shape

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+ 1924 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.

The upward rebound from the 115.20 level in the beginning of March didn't lead to upper rise. Last week the pair consolidated at the 115.50-118.00 range, making a triangle fluctuations range. This formation can lead to the next course decline in the future.

Last week no one of our scripts was fulfilled exactly. Thus the pair exactly achieved the estimated by the double bottom shape target 118.50 (see the technical levels in the last review). A technical picture remains to be descending.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.10-118.40 area.
Current correction may remain in the bounds of the triangle. The break out of the limits will lead to the next two scripts.

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 113.00-114.00 area.
A bottom triangle line break down at 116.10 is necessary for this script. After that a potential downward target, the December, 2006 minimum area, will be achieved firstly. That will lead to a deeper decline in the future, while to the 113.00 level area, triangle workout target.

Script 3 (20%): An upward trend to 121.00.
It must not be ruled out this script, because an upside break out of the triangle may occur (the upper limit is 118.40). Thus, after such an upward trend a following downward trend to the March minimums is expected.

Resistances
118.50 - double bottom shape workout target - last week maximum (upper triangle bound is a bit below).
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
115.70/116.10 - last week support area, bottom triangle line as well.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
109.00 - May, 2006 minimum.

 

[aFairShake]

March 26, 2007 - March 30, 2007

View on USD/JPY: the triangle applies

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week our first script was fulfilled: "Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.10-118.40 area" (50%). Though the bottom margin wasn't achieved, the course kept to the upper margin. Now decline/rebound to the bottom margin area is to be expected.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.60-118.30 area.
Current correction may remain in the bounds of the triangle. The break out of the limits will lead to the next two scripts.

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 113.00-114.00 area.
A bottom triangle line break down at 116.60 is necessary for this script. After that, firstly a potential downward target 114.40, the December, 2006 minimum area, will be achieved. That will lead to a deeper decline in the future, while to the 113.00 level area, triangle workout target.

Script 3 (20%): An upward trend to 121.00.
It must not be ruled out this script, because an upside break out of the triangle may occur (the upper limit is 118.30). But, after such an upward trend to the 120-121 area a following downward trend to the March minimums is expected.

Resistances
118.30/50 - the last two weeks resistances (upper triangle bound).
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
116.60 - bottom triangle line.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
113.00 - supported nearest fall target.

 

[aFairShake]

May 28, 2007 - June 01, 2007

View on USD/JPY: again at the long standing maximums

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+384 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.

USD/JPY is shifting focus to the January-February 122.10/122.20 double top. Last week was the fifth week of declines for the Yen, the longest since a 6-week trend in September-October 2005. Last Wednesday 121.90 high would mark minor resistance before 122.10 next resistance. The main support is still at the 120.50 level.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 121.00-122.20 area.
Next week the course is possible to remain in the region achieved of 121-122 (testing the January's maximum at 122.20), afterwards the further direction will get obvious (either break out 122.20 up or decline to the bottom of the fluctuations range).

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 119.50/120.00 to the March trend line testing.
An upward trend line lies in the 120.00 level region. It is very possible the pair decline to it, afterwards either a new upward impulse with the 122.20 level achieving/breaking may occur or trend line break down with a further decline to 118.00 (115-116 in prospect).

Script 3 (30%): An upward trend above 122.20.
It must not be ruled out the January's top level 122.20 break up. It may be both a short term impulse with a decline following to 121.00 and the beginning of an upward trend to 125.00 level region.

Resistances
121.90 - the last week resistance (a new May's minimum).
122.10 - the upper margin of the upward fluctuations channel.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.
125.00 - expected rise target level if 122.20 breaking out.

Supports
120.50/70 - the last two weeks support.
120.00 - March rising trend lines, key support.
117.60 - April, 2007 minimum, upper triangle line support as well.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum - yearly support.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

June 25, 2007 - June 29, 2007

View on USD/JPY: the flight is going well, for now

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1532 pips - this is the trade result for the last week for our forex signals providers.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

The US dollar has grown last week up to longstanding maximums in 124-shape area against the Japanese yen and keeps on its rise. And it is very likely it will hit 2002 year local maximums at 125.00/80 in the next couple days. But the rise can’t be endless. So it is very possible it will go back down soon.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 123.10-124.50 area.
Current rising can stay in the region achieved with just side exchange fluctuations within the 123.10-124.50 area.

Script 2 (30%): A correction decline to 122.20.
It is very likely a correction downward trend to the broken key resistance area at 122.15/20 with a following upward rebound.

Script 3 (30%): A further upward trend hitting 125-shape area.
Next week a further course rising hitting 125-shape area is very much expected. The target is at 125.00/80 area.

Resistances
124.15 - last week maximum.
124.70 - intermediate resistance.
125.00 - expected rise target.
125.80 - 2002 year local maximum.

Supports
123.10/123.30 - last week support.
122.20 - the broken key resistance, now expected key support.
121.70 - March current upward trend line.
120.80 - June and May level supports.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

July 09, 2007 - July 13, 2007

View on USD/JPY: keeps on balancing

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

USD/JPY seems to slow down at its rising. Last week we were watching the correction continued developing with up to 122.10 level decline and testing the March trend line. Nevertheless the pair was not able to consolidate below the 123-shape. An upward trend is still holding and we do not except the further rising.

Script 1 (40%): A further rising hitting the 125-shape area.
Technically we keep on watching the March upward march, which trend line was tested in June as well as at the previous week and currently lies at the 122.30 level area. It is very likely to expect its further rising hitting the 125-shape area the next week. Target is at 125.00/80 (the local 2002 year maximums).

Script 2 (50%): Correction in the range of 122.30-124.15.
Current rising may stay at the area achieved with side exchange fluctuations within the 122.20 - 124.15 range. The broken in June resistance region at 122.10/20 & trend line at 122.30 run out as the key support. So, it is necessary a huge bears power to break it down which is not enough so far.

Script 3 (10%): A downward trend with a break out of 122.20 level.
It must not be ruled out the further correction decline below the key support at 122.10/30. In this case March trend line will be broken out and it will be the first signal for the current trend turning back. The first downward target then will be the 118.00-120.00 region.

Resistances
123.60 - two last week resistances.
124.15 - June maximum.
125.00/80 - target of rising expected.
125.80 - 2002 year local maximum.

Supports
122.30/50 - March current rising trend line - key support.
122.10 - last week support achieved (ex-resistance).
120.80 - June and May horizontal support lines.
118.20 - one of the decline targets in case of trend line breaking out.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

July 16, 2007 - July 20, 2007

View on USD/JPY: March uptrend is broken down

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+ 4940 pips - this is the trading result our forex signals providers made for the last week.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

The Dollar's broad decline was steepest against the Yen last week. After that USD/JPY was up 0.52% to 122.60 after touching 121.00 low. We saw a classical testing of the broken trend line.

Last week our third script was fulfilled (10%): A downward trend with a break out of 122.20 level.

Script 1 (40%): A further decline touching the 120 shape region.
Technically we watch a breakout of the March uptrend line what tell us about the first signal of the uptrend slowing down and/or turning up. The further correction and decline below 121.00 is very possible. The first target decline is 118.00-120.00 region.

Script 2 (50%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 121.00-122.60.
The correction may stay in the current range achieved, just trading sideways within the 121.00 - 122.60 area. The 121.00 level achieved comes out as a support now, and resistance then is a local last week rebound at 122.60 where the March trend line breakout as well.

Script 3 (10%): A rising up to the 123 level.
The broken trend line which was already classically tested by the up going rebound is at 122.90 level area. It must not be ruled out the short rising to the projection mentioned. But after that a further decline and the first script fulfilling is very possible.

Resistances
122.60 - March trend line breakout level.
123.00 - March upward trend - key resistance projection.
123.60 - Two last weeks' resistance.
124.15 - June maximum.

Supports
121.00 - Last week support achieved.
120.80 - June and May horizontal support lines.
119.50 - May local support.
117.60 - April local support.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

July 23, 2007 - July 27, 2007

View on USD/JPY: Expectations make the Yen stronger.

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1025 pips - this is the trading result our forex signals providers made for the last week.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

Last week our second script was fulfilled (50%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 121.00-122.60. The pair respected the ranges last week though shortly fell to a new correction low to 120.85 on Friday. It can potentially be USD/JPY bearish and the Yen consolidation in the nearest future.

Script 1 (60%): A further decline to the 119.00- 120.00 region.
It is very likely the deeper decline/consolidation below 121.00 level, which was achieved at the last week. The first decline target is the 119.00-120.00 region where the downtrend channel lower line.

Script 2 (30%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 121.00-122.60.
The correction may stay in the current range achieved, just trading sideways within the 121.00 - 122.60 area. The 121.00-shape level region achieved comes out as the main support for now, and resistance then is the downtrend channel upper line projection.

Script 3 (10%): A rising up to the 123.00 level.
The broken trend line which was already classically tested by the up going rebound is a little bit higher than the 123.00-shape. It must not be ruled out the short term upside movement to the projection mentioned (in case the 121-shape wouldn't be broken down). But after that a further decline and the first script fulfilling is very possible.

Resistances
122.40/60 - two last weeks' resistance region.
123.00 - March's trend broken - key resistance projection.
123.60 - July's high.
124.15 - June's high - longstanding high.

Supports
121.00 - the current fluctuations local horizontal support.
119.80 - the downtrend channel upper margin.
118.00 - the uptrend from May's 2006 low.
116.20 - the uptrend expected line from 2005 low.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

July 30, 2007 - August 03, 2007

View on USD/JPY: May 2006 trend line.

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+762 pips - this is the trading result our forex signals providers made for the last week.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

Last week our first script was fulfilled (60%): A further decline to the 119.00- 120.00 region. The pair continued to fall and hit the 118.00 level broking out the support in the 119-120 area. But decline can not last endlessly. New levels and projections go into the game. At the level of 118.00 the correction hit one more longstanding projection line lasting from May 2006! And now it is very possible to expect unless an uptrend then at least a rebound. But firstly the pair should consolidate above the 119.30 level where downtrend channel lower margin projection is, which was broken last week.

Script 1 (20%): A further decline to the 116-shape region.
It is quite possible a further course decline and hitting the 116-shape area where 2-year trend lies. A breakout of the May uptrend line last week achieved will be a signal to this decline. But wee guess this version is unlikely for the next week.

Script 2 (50%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 118.00-119.80.
The pair fluctuations reached a strong support at May trend line, so now the correction to the 119.00 - 119.80 area, the broken last week support, is very possible to expect.

Script 3 (30%): A rising up to the 121.30 level.
It must not be ruled out a higher upside movement to the July's short term downtrend line at 121.30. But after that a further decline to the support achieved at 118.00 is very possible.

Resistances
120.00/80 - the broken out intermediate support - the nearest resistance area.
121.40 - July's correction downtrend.
123.40 - the broken out March's trend - key resistance projection.
124.15 - June's high - longstanding and 2007 high.

Supports
118.00 - the uptrend from May's 2006 low.
116.20 - the uptrend expected support line from January's 2005 low.
115.10 - March's 2007 low - the year support.
113.40 - the intermediate 2006 support.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.

 

[aFairShake]

August 06, 2007 – August 10, 2007

View on USD/JPY: support formalization.

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+4388 pips - this is the trading result our forex signals providers made for the last week.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

Last week our second script was fulfilled (50%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 118.00-119.80. The pair consolidated in the area achieved near the important support at 118.00. We watch slowdown of the decline and forming of the support and resistance levels. So, at 118.00 level there is an important local support May 2006 trend line projection. And now it is a good technical possibility for an upward rebound and further to the March trend line breakout region at 122.00 level. Though the pair will have to consolidate above 119.50/80 area first, where downward short term trend line projection lies. In case the May trend is broken down the pair will decline further hitting two-year trend from January 2005 at 116.20.

Script 1 (40%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 118.00-119.80.
The pair fluctuations reached a strong support at the 118.00 level area. That is why the correction may hold and side range may stay the same. In case the range margins are broken out the following two scripts will develop.

Script 2 (30%): A further decline to the 116-shape region.
It is quite possible a further course decline and hitting the 116-shape area where 2-year trend lies from 2005 year. A breakout of the May uptrend line and horizontal support at 118.00 will be a signal to this decline.

Script 3 (30%): A rising up to the 122.00 level.
It must not be ruled out a higher upside movement (the upward medium term trend line). The pair may correct to the 121.00-122.00 area, where the strong support broken at the end of July lies and March trend line breakout area as well. But after that a further decline to the support achieved at 118.00 is very possible.

Resistances
119.40/80 - the correction downward trend and the nearest resistance.
122.00 - March's trend breakout area level.
123.40 - the broken out March's trend - key resistance projection.
124.15 - June's high - longstanding and 2007 high.

Supports
118.00 - the uptrend from May's 2006 low.
116.20 - the uptrend expected support line from January's 2005 low.
115.10 - March's 2007 low - the year support.
113.40 - the intermediate 2006 support.

Read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.