To be a trader - 20 years'journey from novice to pro novice

oilman5

Well-Known Member
A word of caution
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As per TNSN2345-.. the first step in trading is first be a conventional trader(use TA/mm/stoploss)...from a successful conventional trader then try to reach out for mastery in financial product like OPTION trading.

It trains then your mind Risk/reward - reason behind potential trade,if trade behaves NOT correct -how to take RECTIFICATION . Then mathematical analysis with scenario preparation will be EASIER to implement , as well as then u will be trained to quicker action , based on time sensitive product - also with leverage product ,U MUST derisk better.
It helps-How to convert your losing trades into winners
- Capital guaranteed trading.

Yes in OPTION ,ur outlook has to be changed.

So for simplicity ,when we start from stock trade,we have only two views to profit, bullish or bearish . It is just a plain view of the Underlyings reaching a particular price up in case of bullish view and a particular price down in case of bearish view and by a 'specific time'. For every system of ours, this is important that the view has to be till a specific time, either 10 mins, 30 mins, till EOD, for 3 days, a week, a month etc.

But since we are no God, we can't exactly define the end of the 'specific time' nor can we define that our entry is just the right time and move will happen exactly after we have taken a position.So we need a confirmation too that we have indeed caught the best entry position and that too WITHOUT incurring loss..so the question is how do we do it.
When we arrive at a decision point (and say our view is bullish) we generally enter long, we generally enter at a point where the bears have just thrown out but are the bulls ready to charge ?generally no. Though ideally we should have entered after a pause to let the exhausted bears, breathe easy and cool down and just as the bulls show signs of charging.
But most of the traders are not so paitent to do so, and since we want to be in the market, we take long position just when the bears have climaxed and then hold on our position till the bulls start charging....this waiting period of waiting and hoping that our position will flourish is the culprit and lot of things keep running in our minds during this time.......hence even when there is small up move, we tend to exit as we are restless, particularly we were kept waiting for so long for the bulls to charge.
Alternatively if the bears decide to march further down south, there are high chances that the position is held on using hope, since you are married to the position as you have been holding it and pray- the holding strategy does not allow you to exit even you know that the movement is not in your desired direction.
Best thing(theoretical plan) is to enter just when the bulls are ready to charge (in case of bullish view) or just when bears are ready to attack (in case of bearish view), in actual we can succumb to our urge to enter the market and 'Get into the Action' and 'Get the first hand feel'
This can be controlled /modified by ENTERING NEUTRAL POSITIONS. Yes ENTER NEUTRAL.
So by a 2way trade( like writing AT THE MONEY -call & put) I initiate the trades in Neutral Gear that means that the ignition of my car is ON and I am standby in a Netural Gear. I may have a view, but since I did not for sure knew when that would likely be triggered, I entered Neutral - so I am in the market and already in the action.....till the time the market is moving in a limited range,(small range bound market) my setups were not in much loss nor in much profit.
As the time passes, and conviction as per my system, charts and price action suggest that the desired directional movement has started,crossing an initiation period , I CLOSE THE LOSS MAKING POSITION And than now I have a directional position, as per the trend in the market.
So I do not spend my time and energy to keep analysing, which side is right and then move to that side, BUT I AM IN THERE sitting on the fence all the times with one leg on each side, and swings my legs merrying in the air. The moment one side shows action, I pull out my leg from the other side Quickly.
this Netural position help you to be in the market, but without bearing any loss as you are market Neutral,As you exit your loss making position Quickly. you develop habit of exiting trades in early loss - another requirement to be a successful trader.
- It helps to hold your positions for long time, since after an move in your direction, if there is a pause, you can reinitiate the opposite position and then again get back to the market neutral position, keeping the original position in profit.
Most important: when you are having a market Netural position, and the movement subsequently happens in the OPPOSITE direction of your anticipation, you can exit your loss making position (the position which you originally wanted to hold ) and continue with you NOW profit making position (originally which you did not anticipate to be in profit). This is how due to Flexibility ,original loss making directional bias,can turn into profits. This is despite the movement happening in the opposited direction to your anticipation.Thus the original set up was exited midway and loss making trades where shun out, holding just the directional profit making position and profiting from the momemtum of the fall or in some other cases would be a bull run.
So flexibility ,thinking out of box is key theme for option trader.The above techinques given large room to accomodate, right decision making errors and hence would advise it to starters, till they have developed a good strike rate sytem which gives high probablity of right signals on entry. Even today, I am stuck on lot of occasion when my system though it me some indications and I do not have conviction on that indication, I enter a Netural Trade first only to then release the loss making trade out and continue holding the profit making trade till the end of holding period.

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With a comment from Xray27, i am concluding views as option learner. Enough hints on how to trade option given-(personally i trade directional bias)
TOP 10 TRAITS OF SUCCESSFUL OPTION TRADERS

1.They Are Properly Capitalized

2.They Have A Low Tolerance For Risk:The best options traders will only trade when there is a low risk high reward scenario.

3.They Trade Only When The Market Provides An Opportunity

4.They Have A Trading Plan

5.They Have A Risk Management Plan

6.They Can Control Emotions.

7.They Are Incredibly Disciplined

8.They Are Focused

9.They Are Committed: Options trading takes a great deal of commitment. Any time you have your hard earned money at risk, you should be trying to get the most out of your investment

10.They Have Back Tested Their Strategy
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
basic idea of timing
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first idea on TA ,which price i shall buy or sell. ALL other price r nono zone.
1] expected pt of reversal , at top ,u sell. At bottom we buy. Tough part is both top/bottom r vegue, nearly impossible to predict. So use fundamental concept with conservative estimate + discounting factor= valuation ,normally buy pt. When price due certain scenario comes to that low pt, u must BUY.
Many chartist use strong support2 as this pt.
2] optimistic estimate ,with future cash should give u TARGET to sell. u must sell if price reach this zone. Again chartists use long term Resistance use this as target to sell ,in projection of price.
3] unfortunately this top/bottom is not so easy , so comes trend trading- here we believe MOMENTUM shall maintain. Break out/euphoria is other name to follow.use of 2ma, one short like 5, another 20 , also pair like 10/50 are very good to show with x -strength of momentum. simple profit book = when cuts down shorter term ma.
4] those who believe in long term trend condition due to economy/country condition, may use pull back buy, to take position and then hold for longer term.
this trend trader always miss initial , but holding long made good money.
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a good trader should stick to a style, or may switch ,if he can find out present market suit which style of play(i use the word proactive)
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Recently there is a debate -all we know -what it is.
The same person has created in past a scenario ,when SAINT comes out........force to quit.
without going to pain of moderator , some of my observation i am putting .
1] In latter case - i have shown my daughter , there will be a trouble brewing , she ASKED why?- i told -thats why i am a trader.
One person rightly points out - negativity will run its shadow , temporarily closing of that thread & incident proves that beyond doubt.
WE AS TRADER ,DO BEST TO PROTECT FROM NEGATIVITY. NEXT OTHER IMP THING IF FOULS, we must not trade.
when our soul searches for cheap clap/ someone for easy money - the person can never be a good trader. I have seen enough of this media hype trash , who can fool lots of news hungry gullible fools on market - but dont earn by trading. Infact they r afraid themselves to click in own a/c in seven digit fig.Nine digit fig FM avoids to play even 3% profit , - commenting in parties they ethically dont trade from research( but put voucher to claim 8000/- )
What i mean to say -traders r different breed. The budding one ,if ever tries to get Forecasting as target for next day/3day/10 day etc.- CAN NEVER BECOME TRADER.
INFACT our moderator tries his level best to bring novices out ,so new learner must not even think . I remember a recent Bengali Horror film - where with music(flute) a lady ( blue color nishi paowa) calls and people at night follows at night and forest only to die.
Finance industry create the trap same way, - consider financially illiterate can understand intricacy of business/forecasting/valuation/price action reading as well as mastering psychology within 6month. So they come and loose the shirts.
I am the same person who commented , after 1st 10yr i would tell anyone -dont come here ,IT TAKES REALLY 10000HR.I am the same person - who tells daughter ok,come here, but before understanding deciphering PRICE , pl go through basic (Bachelor in Financial Market 3yr course + 2yr BSE Global Financial Management Profession course)
To understand basic i spend 3yr- through ITM/BSE.
BHAO BHAGAWAN CHE- it takes time to assimilate it in blood.
2] 4yr back , i get an opportunity to train some analyst on TA/ trading. Really a futile exercise ( so recently a call from BSE to lecture on course of stock trading , i avoid)
They always think on target , linear forecasting- without understanding basic event of Probability/uncertainity. i tried my level best to tell them - think differently. BELIEVE IN BASIC THING.MACRO ECONOMY , MONEY FLOW , AWARE OF GREAT RISK CONTROL and habit of writing /learning from winning/losing trade.......but they r born to become analyst/credit analyst/risk manager.
ADAPTABILITY TO WEAR VARIOUS HAT , - TO TAKE RISK WHEN OPPORTUNITY COMES, wait for high probability/low risk event as well as reading price RIGHT - NOT TO LISTEN TV NEWS, I find difficult to train.
Yes i agree when to play on break out, when to join on pullback -is not at all easy for trade learner in reality. Unless u r strong in Macro economy or growth potential of company - u will mistake . but u r ready to make mistake , activate STOP, write the logic as assumed vs. as actually happened -, u r in RIGHT path of journey- u become a trader oneday .
some q & A
q1] what shall be nifty closing tomorrow?
A- i dont know.
q2] what shall be nifty closing this week?
A- i dont know.
q3] what shall i buy today?
A- Anything that moves in a particular direction. Name of company unknown unless market opens.
q4] which sector i shall buy this week?
A- the sector which has shown positive bias on Monday. Not last week
q5] why the hell i learn from u, when u dont this basic answer?
ANSWER: I AM A TRADER , I DONT KNOW BEFORE MARKET OPEN, BUT WITHIN 15MIN OF OPENING BY DECIPHERING PRICE , I KNOW WHERE LIES OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY.
I HAVE NO BLOCK ,IF NIFTY SHOWS UPBIAS I TRADE IN HIGH BETA STOCK LONG. IF NIFTY SHOWS DOWNBIAS I TRADE IN HIGH BETA STOCK SHORT.IF NIFTY SHOWS NO BIAS, I CONCENTRATE TO FIND SWING CANDIDATE AT SUPPORT FOR LONG ENTRY.
DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH OF MARKET IN WEEKLY CHART , I SHOW U TO PLAY FOR 1000 OR 10000 SIZE, -WHEN NOT UNDERSTANDING/CLARITY IN MIND WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT , I SUGGEST NOT TO PLAY.
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READERS MUST understand - clarity, its not simple forecasting but direction bias we search as trader. All traders must work on his strength zone.
(just like all analyst give stress on talk,after personal experimental failure ,get money by selling newsletter )
note: views r personal NOT to hurt anyone
 
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
What is Sector Rotation?


Detail is ton worthy writing ,only hints r given. (No fund manager tells it, as its their bread & butter)
1] Market up starts with banking sector.
2] Cement/steel - 1st sign of economic boom. followed by infra structure.
3] when transport works , infra structure ok- Power sector moves.
4] then starts consumerism - FMCG etc. Common people think of bull market .
5] official growth factor data publish - future looks bright . hotel/tourism moves.
6] With money flow automobile sales up- the sector moves up.
7] All looks good - service provider IT/pharma moves & shifts money as doller appreciated. So safe money starts to move out- dumping to fools.
8] money moves from stock to fixed/Gold etc .
9] Report some problems by media- common people understand , though some corrected - still continue slow price fall.
10] people understand recession/inflation - but broking is still ok( as short possible)- Pharma fund / FMCG in demand as defensive -all r dumped.
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Again a good hope brings up some yrs later.
IF U LOOK SECTOR ,AS MENTIONED IN NSE/BSE AGAINST WEEKLY CHART OF INVERSE CORRELATION up vs down - u can get , this intermediate term trade plan .
for intraday it not suits, some think misnomer - pair trading , for upbias buy/ equal value down bias SELL .
Hope it helps.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
Learning to day trade
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Most books as written r bakwas. Real day trading is not that easy nor complicated.Only psychological aspect is difficult for neolearner. 2 methods which i use extensively ,copiable i explaining.
1] Its momentum , basically Orderflow technique, on a known stock in a particular MOB , disequilibrium by buyer/seller - so a trade opportunity.
Example : Thursday trade on Reliance from 851- 857.
2] Its basically Nifty based ,biased trade,- based on % study. Quickly u can see ,if nifty moving ,who r showing strong intraday bias -SIMILAR TO NIFTY. NOW TRADE IN THEM FOR ABOUT 1% MOMENTUM MOVE.
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other technique : price action study= how its breaking imp high/low. Mark 5day high/low - how quickly price is reaching , then its holding or immediately coming down , if immediately coming down ,TAKE REVERSAL TRADE, IE. SHORT AT HIGH, BUY AT 5DAY LOW. ( u may use 10day high/low also)
MIND IT I DONT TRADE ON BREAK , BUT ON 1ST TIME REACH AND REVERSE IN IT. thats all my intraday trade technique.

the failure of this technique, this 5 day high/low break shows me strong momentum ,so which i can capitalize on suitable swing play on pullback, particularly if happens after 0230 pm.

hope it helps to intraday stock trader
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
to learn option to become a pro only option trader, following basic approach may help.
1] attend advance option @ bse-2day
2] listen follow finideas utube or join their course,basic + greek ,they also guide how to use software .
3] follow course material of OTA, xlt option course from ebay
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read some good article given in traderji.
remember - 1st understand scenario, then TA hat, then only option strategy HAT to take a potential trade.NEVER learn from below 5 yr experienced option trader, never take a low probability trade,master pay-off curve.
 

oilman5

Well-Known Member
BSE course :It starts with a quick orientation of the basics and moves to simulated strategies and actual derivatives technicals on volatility and greeks, an insight into the market dynamics and equipping them with the knowledge to pricing for derivatives. These skill enables identification of arbitrage opportunities equiping the participants with a series of combination strategies.The Program also illustrates hedging strategies in lucid detail taking actual cues from experts who are consultant of fund managers.
Day - 1
Futures Basics: Futures Product Specifications, Open Interest, Mark-to-Market Margining
Option Basics: Concept, Time Decay; Strike prices Basic Put-Call strategies
Strategy: Futures: Stock and Index Futures, Basket - Pair Trading,
Synthetics: Synthetic Call and Put strategies, Synthetic Futures Strategies
Strategy: Spread Strategies; Exotic Strategies; Covered Call Strategies

Day - 2

Pricing: Futures Pricing: Cost of Carry, Expectation Hypothesis, Fair Value Pricing,
Option Pricing: How to leverage it for derivatives trading, Put-Call Parity,
American and European Options Pricing, Dividend and non-Dividend Paying Stocks
Arbitrage and Hedging: Futures - Futures and Cash - Futures; Options Arbitrage
Hedging: Types of Risk: Basis Risk, Systematic and Unsystematic Risk.
Utilities of a Hedge for Mutual Funds Cross Hedging; Protective Put, Fencing Strategy,
Portfolio Hedging Strategies, Tailing the Hedge - Case - Live Portfolio Strategy
Greeks: Delta Neutral strategies, Delta - Gamma neutrality, Delta v/s Time; Delta v/s Volatility; Gamma v/s Time and Volatility, Vega, Theta and Rho; Volatility Trading Strategies.
Forecasting using Options and Futures: Put - Call Ratio; Volatility Forecasting
Futures: Forecasting Strategies: Open Interest - Volume and Price Patterns,
Volatility Index


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Course from FINIDEAS - a surat base ex-bse trainer to make option simpler in hindi

What are call & Put Options?
Option Pricing & Option Greeks
Delta
Gamma
Vega
Theta
Rho
Open Interest Theory
Dispersion Theory
Volatility Sigma Range
Volatility Smile & Skew
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Strategies Included
Bullish Strategies?
Bearish Strategies
Ratio Spread Strategies
Straddle & Strangle Strategies
Butterfly Strategies
Condor Strategies
Calendar Spread Strategies
Put Call Parity
Book Building Strategy
Short Gamma Strategies
Low Delta Short Gamma Strategy
this will be shown in software in live data, so high probability event can be traded as it occurs.
 
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
when u have learnt them ,easily we can follow various concept
no1- what type option trader ,u want to be and on what condition of nifty/stock that happens in india.
spread strategy easily playable.
if u could find out some event may not happen,very low probability - practice underwrite option.
pl use any software or good platform like IB where strategy can be checked .
mind it - option can not be applied everywhere,-actual price move within expiry definitely limited.
AT support/resistance or imp pivot futuristic scenario preparation helps.
normal expectation by participant in form of implied volatility mostly wrong -learn to trade against it, ie. high IV sell option ,low IV buy option.Use volatility expansion -contraction cycle.
EFFICIENT MARKET WHICH NOW COMING TO INDIA, will provide great opportunity to swing based option trader.
ROLLING CONCEPT IN OPTION to be learnt last ,after profitable strategy implementation.
INTRADAY option is very easy to convert from successful intraday trader- simply define the day quickly , UP PLAY CALL,downday -use put , last week ,we get excellent opportunity both put and call respectively, formation of trend = use option.

but if u r not already a successful intraday ,nor a swing - trying in option will bring bigger loss, - math base arbitrage or delta neutral strategy u can try , provided gone through 6 month software based paper trade.
warning : OPTION IS A WEALTH DESTRUCTION TOOL
 

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