Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs-part 2

[johny5]

EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for August 29 /2012

The euro is trading above the psychological level of 1.25; we have seen that the pair demonstrated a recovery these days. This upward movement is more likely based on the idea that the Fed will provide more monetary easing and the ECB will probably do something of this magnitude. But of course, we will be probably disappointed. Because of this, it is really difficult for the market to operate now.
We, therefore, recommend being very cautious when buying, as before the rise there will likely be a correction to the level of 1.24.
Therefore, we recommend selling if the price closes below the daily pivot of 1.2535 or if gives a pullback to the level of 1.26. Sell with targets at 1.2464 and 1.2390.
Our outlook remains bearish below the level of 1.27.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Sell Bellow 1.5915 for August 30, 2012

Conference in Jackson Hole that will last for three days starts today. Tomorrow Bernanke will be giving a speech and it seems that markets are willing to consolidate until we get some sort of clarity from the President. It seems that the whole world is waiting for any decision made by the Fed which will satisfy the markets.
From a technical point of view, 1.59 to 1.61 is a strong resistance which will be very difficult to overcome. If the expected data is negative, we recommend selling very cautiously at the level of 1.5915, and 1.5950 with a tight stop loss. The objectives will be in the uptrend line initiated by a bullish triangle pattern, and then the strong support at 1.5770. Note that below this level there will be a very massive sale.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 30, 2012

Wave Analysis:
During yesterday's trading session, EUR/USD failed to get over 1.2570 which resulted in price drop towards the lower line of the uptrend channel. Thus, the currency pair is of wait-and-see attitude which enables the growth within the boundaries of wave 5. In case of negative news, the pair may resume its downward move towards 24-level figure. Given that, indicators demonstrate unstable balance in which the market can operate till Bernankes speech on Friday.
Targets for Down Wave 1 or a:
1.2521 23.6% Fibonacci
1.2478 38.2% Fibonacci
Targets for Wave 5 into 5:
1.2568 161.8% Fibonacci
1.2613 200.0% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
The most probable outcome is the continuation of the uptrend channel which was formed in 5 wave. Wave 5 into 5 may also continue its move enabling the rise towards 1.2568 and 1.2613 which is equal to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. The uptrend channel indicates the upward trend area, fixing below which will indicate a stronger downward move. After 5 into 5 wave formation, the pair may start going down under 1 or a wave which may push the currency pair lower towards 1.2521 and 1.2478 which is equal to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.27 For August 31 /2012

Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole surely marks the trend for the next few weeks. Is it possible that in his words there is a promise of quantitative easing? Despite the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is trying to do more or less to ease the situation, there is still a big problem in Europe.
Therefore, our outlook remains bearish for this pair, below the level of 1.27. Only a daily close above this level could change my mind about this pair.
Therefore, we recommend selling if see a bullish rally to the level of daily fractal 1.2680 and strong resistance level with targets at 1.2465 and 1.2343.
Currently the pair is in an uptrend channel, but in overall the pair has a strong downtrend.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Fractal 1.5956 - For August 31, 2012

The pound has a bullish outlook against the dollar in the short term, trading between 1.5910 and 1.5770, exceeding the 1.59. The currency can add upward force to the pair, although the indicators show depletion in the upward and overbought signal. So, I prefer to go in the direction of the correction to find trapped in a resistance level. Given that now everyone is wondering whether the Fed will implement a plan to stimulate the economy by buying cash bonds, which would, if carried out, result in a huge boost to equity markets, particularly currencies.
Therefore, we recommend selling at the resistance of 1.5956 (fractal) with objectives to 1.5801, this serves as a part of the downward correction.
Our outlook remains bullish above 1.5750.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Wave Analysis for September 3, 2012

Wave Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair started the Friday session with a rally until the publication of Ben Bernankes speech, having added about 120 points after that coming closer to 59 figure. After that the pair rebounded from this high which can be a sign (together with MACD indicator) that the second try to test 1.5900 level may result into market swing against the British pound in short term.
Target for Down Wave (probably 3 or c):
1.5858 23.6% Fibonacci
1.5823 38.2% Fibonacci
1.5795 50.0% Fibonacci
Targets for Correctional Up-wave (probably 2 or b, it is possible that it has already come to an end):
1.5886 11.4% Fibonacci
Summary and Trading Recommendations:
It is possible that now the pair continues its downtrend. The intermediate targets of the suggested decline are the levels of 1.5858, 1.5823, and 1.5795 which corresponds to 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% of Fibonacci in the terms of wave 3 or c. Until that we can see a re3bound in the terms of wave 2 or b (not necessary) to the level of 1.5886 and higher which is equal to 11.4% of Fibonacci. But it is most likely that the wave has already finished its formation. It should be noticed that ambiguousness of wave marking may result in its reconsideration. The uptrend channel still indicates the upward area, in case the price is below it, we will get a confirmation that the new downtrend , in particular wave 3 or c, is formed.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for September 3, 2012

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a strong bullish movement which was maintained within the depicted bullish channel. However, during the last week the market witnessed some bearish retracement in reaction to the upper limit of its movement channel around the price level of 1.2580.
Last week the EUR/USD pair managed to breakdown the short term uptrend line depicted on the chart after finding resistance around the price level of 1.2570. However, the pair came back to retest the backside of the broken trendline as depicted on the chart.
The most significant Resistance level is located around 1.2580. This price level was tested last week expressing a bearish engulfing 4H candlestick which pushed the EUR/USD pair to the downside.That's why a low risk SELL entry is suggested at retesting which is taking place now with a tight SL located above 1.2630.
The lower limit of the movement channel as well as SMA 100 are located between 1.2430-1.2400 where price action should be watched for a valid low risk BUY entry with SL located below 1.2370.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Sell Bellow 1.5905 for September 04, 2012

The pound sterling failed to exceed 1.59 area and had today a negative impact of the construction PMI index which was below 49 points.
This pair will continue demonstrating a strong upward trend, given that it is above the 200 day moving average. It is likely that many currencies are now closing their positions waiting for the meeting of the ECB. The daily close above 1.5900 will initiate an upward sequence until 1.61.
Furthermore, the pair is possible to demonstrate a pullback to 1.59 and then will fail to exceed it. In this case we recommend selling to strong support level 1.5780.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.2558 For September 04 /2012

The EUR/USD pair could not overcome the strong resistance of 1.2630. At this moment it is showing a slight correction with the next target at weekly pivot of 1.2558, the break of this level will indicate the beginning of a new bearish sequence until the nearest support of 1.2480.
We, therefore, recommend selling below 1.2558 pivot, only if the pair closes the 4 hours charts with objectives to 1.2480 and 1.2390. The stop loss will place it above the high of 1.2630.
MACD indicator is entering an overbought area, bearish correction is imminent.
Given that this week there will be announced a lot of fundamental data, we recommend being careful with the size of our positions.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis 2012-09-05

The spot rate tested the intermediate resistance of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5920 and declined. It approaches now the lower limit of its channel at 1.5830 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a bearish channel.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

As the spot rate tests the lower limit of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we suggest a buy at the level of 1.5830 with the 1st objective at 1.5890 and then at 1.5910. A breakthrough 1.5810 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its support where we advise a sell stop which means selling the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.5830 with the 1st objective at 1.5770 and then at 1.5750. A breakthrough 1.5850 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert