Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs-part 2

[johny5]

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 07, 2015

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 118.05 on Tuesday. It is undermined by the selling of yen crosses amid decreased risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 6.02% to 21.12, S&P 500 closed 0.89% lower at 2,002.61 overnight) as lingering eurozone worries, continued fall in oil prices to fresh five-and-a-half year lows and bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 56.2 in December from 59.3 in November (versus forecast 58.0) stoked concerns over the global growth outlook. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.949% versus 2.037% late Monday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy, broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.808 Tuesday, last at 91.73 versus 91.36 early Tuesday) and smaller-than-expected 0.7% drop in U.S. November factory orders (versus forecast -0.8%).
Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators bearish, five-day moving average is staged bearish crossover against 15-day moving average.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.5. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 118. The pivot point stands at 119.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.3.
Resistance levels: 119.95 120.3 120.75
Support levels: 118.5 118 117.75

Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 07, 2015

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0138 this morning.It is underpinned by the broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.808 Tuesday, last at 91.73 versus 91.36 early Tuesday); smaller-than-expected 0.7% drop in U.S. November factory orders (versus forecast -0.8%) , franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and contagion from weak euro on the Swiss franc and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0155 and the second target at 1.020. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9985. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 0.9930. The pivot point is at 1.0030.
Resistance levels: 1.0155 1.02 1.0235
Support levels: 0.9985 0.9930 0.99

Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of gold for January 7, 2015

Gold price is in a short-term uptrend confirmed after breaking above $1,200-$1,205 resistance. The triangle scenario I posted in my analysis yesterday is the most probable outcome if gold manages to hold above $1,200.

In the daily chart, we see gold price above the Ichimoku cloud heading towards the upper triangle boundaries. I expect it to find resistance at $1,235-$1,240. A reversal from that level will strnegthen my triangle scenario. The trend is bullish in the daily chart but the corrective nature of the rise implies that this sideways move since middle October is correction before the longer-term down trend resumes.

Performed by Alexandros Yfantis, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 08, 2015

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and German Factory Orders m/m .The US will also unveil its Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, and Consumer Credit m/m data. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium volatility during this day.
Today's technical levels:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1895.
Strong Resistance:1.1888.
Original Resistance: 1.1877.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1866.
Target Inner Area: 1.1838.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1810.
Original Support: 1.1799.
Strong Support: 1.1788.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1781.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 08, 2015

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.5148, but it is noteworthy that this pair has formed a fractal near the support level of 1.5017, which would be an indication of GBP/USD conducting a bullish retracement above the resistance level of 1.5148 in the coming hours.
H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.5148 / 1.5341
H4chart's support levels: 1.5017 / 1.4900

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5074, take profit is at 1.5018, and stop loss is at 1.5131.

Performed by Felipe Erazo, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 08, 2015

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a buoyant tone. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.57% to 19.31; S&P 500 closed up 1.16% at 2,025.9 overnight) as data showing the eurozone fell into deflation for the first time in more than five years bolstered expectations for the European Central Bank to engage in full-blown quantitative easing as early as Jan. 22, while balanced minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting suggest the U.S. central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates before the middle of this year. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers, the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 92.265 Wednesday, last at 92.02 versus 91.73 early Wednesday) on narrower-than-expected U.S. November trade deficit of $39 billion (versus forecast $42 billion), while ADP report showing 241,000 increase in U.S. December private sector jobs--although below forecast +250,000--bolstered hopes that Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data would be robust. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. two-year Treasury yields (last at 0.613% versus 0.633% late Tuesday) after release of FOMC minutes.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.5. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 118. The pivot point stands at 119.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.3.
Resistance levels: 120.3 120.65 121
Support levels: 118.65 118.05 117.75

Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 08, 2015

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0176 on Wednesday.It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment; contagion from the weak euro on the Swiss franc and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0225 and the second target at 1.0255. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0090. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 1.0030. The pivot point is at 1.0125.
Resistance levels: 1.0225 1.0255 1.0275
Support levels: 1.0090 1.0030 0.9985

Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Technical analysis of gold for January 8, 2015

Gold may be forming a bullish flag with a possible target of $1,270. The short-term trend is sideways while gold trades between $1,220 and $1,200. The medium-term trend is neutral as gold price is forming a big sideways triangle. The long-term trend remains bearish.

In the 4 hour chart above we observe the triangle pattern that is being formed. Strong resistance by this pattern is at $1,230. Even if price breaks above $1,220 it will need to break above $1,230-40 in order to confirm the bullish flag and the target of $1,270. Support is found by the Ichimoku cloud at $1,195. I prefer to stay neutral.

Performed by Alexandros Yfantis, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 9, 2015

The market currently looks oversold below price level of 1.2000 and 1.1950 (prominent psychological SUPPORT & the lower limit of the movement channel on the 4H chart).
Currently, selling the EUR/USD pair is considered a high-risk position at such historically low prices. Bullish pullback should be anticipated looking for better prices to sell the pair off.
The price level of 1.1950 is the recently established SUPPLY level. Intraday short positions can be taken there, provided that the market keeps trading below price level of 1.2000.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert

 

[johny5]

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 9, 2015

Overview:
The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.
Recently, the market failed to express a bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (upper limit of the daily bearish channel).
Instead, an extensive bearish pressure was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed on December 23).
A daily closure below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projected target at 1.5300. The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030.
The key-support zone for today's movement is located at 1.5090-1.5100. Four-Hour fixation above price level of 1.5120 pauses the current bearish decline exposing price level of 1.5260, 1.5370 and 1.5410.
However, at such strong bearish trend, you should note that persistent fixation below 1.5100 signals more bearish tendency of the market, probably new lows below 1.5030 are going to be hit.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert