Taming of the BULL-Crash of 21 Jan 2008

[pkjha30]

i do not know what you want to prove using that. if you are trying to prove that we can not get less than that, then i suggest you should immediately try to find the difference between Forward P/E and Trailing P/E.

I don't want to prove anything. Its just a statement of fact.I did not even interpret, as historical data may not be a good indicator of things to come. But data posted earlier above certainly is and one can draw one's own inference. It may go anywhere. btw I know what is forward and trailing PE. You are free to draw your own conclusion. I quoted this because yesterday I saw a post dated 29th may 2006 dealing with Sensex PE

I am attaching sensex PE chart.
Touched a high of 60.64 on 31 March 1992.
Low of 9.69 in 1998.You can see it is moving in a channel.
If Sensex PE chart has to go at the bottom of the Channel,it will have to touch 8500-8600 Level or some of sensex heavy weights have to perform better in this quarter.Some foreign funds have also been telling that sensex can touch 8500-8600 levels.What do you think??

RJ

And yes I think optimistically.

pk

 

[pkjha30]

The table clears some of the misconceptions in my end.I had not been seeing the breakdown of RBI data in greater detail,but mostly reuters or bloomberg data at a higher level , I think you may be an economist and I am a trader/speculator, that is the difference. Hence my view on USDINR, USDCNY, inflation , rate cuts etc


It still did not help the 10%+ inflation rate last six months and the deteriorating currency, primarily driven by external factors, nor it is a reason for me to change my outlook and go long in Indian stocks and the Rupee. So much for tax receipts next year.
I still cannot understand why rate cuts or lower CRR helps except for short term, lets leave it at that. May be Indians have not yet started seeing the real effects.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122528902134880197.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Good luck to all. Looks like plenty of people living in fantasy land with all those investments in the pipeline.

Well Thanks for that. just for records sake, I am not an economist so read data in plain terms without theories.

The problem is during uptrend in economy , both economist and speculators are happy. Economist, since his theories appear to be proven and speculator , since he makes more money than others. But during crash, which can not be explained by normal theories, economists suffer the most upon seeing brute crushing of his theories and temporary paralysis of analysis to make sense out of chaos. In hindsight he makes up for some theories.Speculators suffer because they loose more than the rest.

And clearly when one is in depressed mood, world seems to be a place like hell and not a place to live in.

But let me remind, this is not the end of world.When everything is lost, night seems darkest, you will see life is still there, glimmer of hope would shine brightest in darkest of times. Strength of character is seen in adversity.

I still remember many stories of Marwaari people going to far off places with nothing and slowly growing to become business leaders. In fact SKumars is one of such stories who started from a small town of Munger in Bihar. I personally know a family whose great grand father came to town from Rajasthan with family and small kids and no way to sustain. His family became one of the leaders of Marwaari community in business.One boy started without business background or experience and is doing much better than he would otherwise have done.Here people can't make it as big as in USA but by Indian standards ,it is far better.There is community level self support system which enables them to survive any adversity. Communities, which do not provide, suffer the most.

I am telling all this because if one has made lots of monies and leveraged oneself beyond his means suffers serious loss then he is prone to feel pall of gloom and doom and commit extreme steps. Life is more precious than that. So come out to the real world.

pk

 

[raosrinivas]

In Telugu there is a proverb "Anni vunna, alludi notlo shani", it means though we have everything , shani is present in son-in-law's mouth.

 

[pkjha30]

In Telugu there is a proverb "Anni vunna, alludi notlo shani", it means though we have everything , shani is present in son-in-law's mouth.

Well only can hope such son in laws keep their mouth shut till things improve, esp gloom and doom chaps, .

 

[pkjha30]

The short list for Treasury Secretary likely includes former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Obama's choice for Next Secretary of Treasury....
pk

 

[raosrinivas]

Well only can hope such son in laws keep their mouth shut till things improve, esp gloom and doom chaps, .

our gloomy outlook is for stock market, it is not our personal outlook. don't you think by avoiding stock market meltdown from 21k to 10k we have benefitted more than the one's who optimistically, obstinately held on ? i am not desperate for stock market to rally, i can wait 10yrs to get bid for their heads who have their heads in the sand.

there was a thread call sticking my neck out NIFTY 7300, i posted there that i will post 7300/2 some day. interestingly i don't see the thread now , search does not show that thread. i am wondering what happened to that thread.

for the obstinate i will be coming back with salt a few months later. i am not that good in english proverbs it goes like rubbing salt on..

 

[pkjha30]

our gloomy outlook is for stock market, it is not our personal outlook. don't you think by avoiding stock market meltdown from 21k to 10k we have benefitted more than the one's who optimistically, obstinately held on ? i am not desperate for stock market to rally, i can wait 10yrs to get bid for their heads who have their heads in the sand.

there was a thread call sticking my neck out NIFTY 7300, i posted there that i will post 7300/2 some day. interestingly i don't see the thread now , search does not show that thread. i am wondering what happened to that thread.

for the obstinate i will be coming back with salt a few months later. i am not that good in english proverbs it goes like rubbing salt on..

We have Aswasthama in Mahabharat still roaming the forest while world has moved on.
So one can wait to see ...

 

[pkjha30]

FII data

03-NOV-2008 -- 4111.10 -- 2927.90 -- 1183.20

04-NOV-2008 -- 2483.30 -- 1721.60 -- 761.70

05-NOV-2008 -- 1968.30 -- 2061.20 -- (93.00)

DII data

03-NOV-2008 -- 625.30 -- 703.80 -- (78.60)

04-NOV-2008 --581.00 --749.80 --(168.80)

 

[jnj333]

our gloomy outlook is for stock market, it is not our personal outlook. don't you think by avoiding stock market meltdown from 21k to 10k we have benefitted more than the one's who optimistically, obstinately held on ? i am not desperate for stock market to rally, i can wait 10yrs to get bid for their heads who have their heads in the sand.

there was a thread call sticking my neck out NIFTY 7300, i posted there that i will post 7300/2 some day. interestingly i don't see the thread now , search does not show that thread. i am wondering what happened to that thread.

for the obstinate i will be coming back with salt a few months later. i am not that good in english proverbs it goes like rubbing salt on..

If I remember correctly That is uasish da's thread and is based on techinicals , it has been renamed as 'Nifty future trading' under derivatives section and its main theme is nifty intraday trading , and it is still one the most active threads on this forum. As a trader is hardly concered at what levels nifty is trading, so suitably the name was changed. Maybe rest uasish da can tell.

 

[uasish]

our gloomy outlook is for stock market, it is not our personal outlook. don't you think by avoiding stock market meltdown from 21k to 10k we have benefitted more than the one's who optimistically, obstinately held on ? i am not desperate for stock market to rally, i can wait 10yrs to get bid for their heads who have their heads in the sand.

there was a thread call sticking my neck out NIFTY 7300, i posted there that i will post 7300/2 some day. interestingly i don't see the thread now , search does not show that thread. i am wondering what happened to that thread.

for the obstinate i will be coming back with salt a few months later. i am not that good in english proverbs it goes like rubbing salt on..

Plz ask yourself Who amongst us are so DUMB & NAIVE that we are still Holding from 5000 levels.Either we have enourmous wealth so no Stop Loss nor did we had time to hedge.
I am an out & out Day Trader since long & since January not holding anything (except the Muharat Buys) more than 5 days.
Adding salt would be still acceptable if You could atleast financially benifit from your Predictions.
Does that Prove anything Sir,we where trying to bring home few facts regarding RBI,thas all.We would continue doing day trading to meet all our expenses if God willing we can even think of Buying some property at US (100 nos RIL at present price is more expensive than a 2 bed roomed property in Cleveland).
That would be a Good Long term investment for 10 yrs.