Swing Bank Nifty - With Backtested report !
- Thread starter areebs
- Start date
Areeb ji..
What AW10 has reflected in his views that human tendency will have its role play in minds of all traders and investors.. and when a trade is in huge profit, irrespective of the fact how accurate the system gives buy and sell signals..the emotional part will have its role play....
Finally let me tell you, that i am not here, to say your response holds air of sarodonicism, but to tell you that AW10 IS A REAL GENIUS...
Regards
Saivenkat
What AW10 has reflected in his views that human tendency will have its role play in minds of all traders and investors.. and when a trade is in huge profit, irrespective of the fact how accurate the system gives buy and sell signals..the emotional part will have its role play....
Finally let me tell you, that i am not here, to say your response holds air of sarodonicism, but to tell you that AW10 IS A REAL GENIUS...
Regards
Saivenkat
In my view, more I know about some topic, I know how little I know about it. Atleast that keeps me going to learn more and feel more ignorant.
Thanks Again.
Happy Trading
Hi AW10
Do you still have time to do other things or do you just write and write and write ?
You do great writings in many threads here and I wish, that you also take time for your self.
I guess, you do not get money for that, so what drives you to do such work beside other things you do ?
All my respect to your open mind and time you take to write for the forum.
Take care
Do you still have time to do other things or do you just write and write and write ?
You do great writings in many threads here and I wish, that you also take time for your self.
I guess, you do not get money for that, so what drives you to do such work beside other things you do ?
All my respect to your open mind and time you take to write for the forum.
Take care
Quote:
Regarding the Largest Loss of 9.9lacs then let me inform you its just -245 on (29/10/09) Bank Nifty points which is nothing exceptional and the amount is 9.9lacs because the Trading Capital has grown from 2007 and hence more lots are being Traded.Its just 2.92% of the Trading Capital.
"It is conditional that the start date of backtest was from 2007 and hence accumulated profit could absorb the big drawdown. If you change the start date of system test to 2001. These number is lac's will turn into Crores. But if one just happen to start trading this system from Jan-2009 with 100000 of capital.. probably trader would have blown the account."
Why dont you do some hard work before commenting ?
Firstly I have the Data only from 2007 so unfortunately I cannot backtest from 2001 or anything prior to 2007.If you have the data or know from where I can get the data then please inform me, I will surely post the Backtest results of the same system from that date.
I have listed the results for each year in different files. If you see the result of the year 2009 from 1 January to 29 Oct 2009(on which the loss occured) , then the total points gained in Bank Nifty is 6976 after deducting the Loss. Now you sit with a calculator and explain to me how will the account be blown ?
If you are a safe trader and just trade with 1 lot of Bank Nifty in Rs 1 lac Capital then also the total amount of Rs 1 lac with grow to 448800 in just 10 months including your biggest loss.(Jan 1 to 29 Oct 2009)
In a system you dont see the amount of Profit or Loss, you see the % and points earned.You can play with the capital according to your risk.
Quote:
Regarding the Largest Profit of 4932975 and holding it for 100 bars, then let me inform you this trade happened on 14/5/09 at 2.35pm and was booked at 19/5/09 2.40pm, so holding for only 3 trading days as 16th and 17th were Sat and Sunday. So if for you holding a position for 3 days is long then maybe Swing trading is not for you.
"This is exactly why I don't believe in such 1 off / 6 sigma trades.. It was the time when election result shocked our market, POSITIVELY. I don't remember seeing in history where index locks up on Upper Band which happened at that time. Hitting of lower band is more acceptable..
In my approach of evaluating a trading system - I try to knockoff such skewed trades (specailly on +ive trades).. and see the impact on performance. However strong is your discipline, there are chance that you might not have been in that big winner trade. At the end of the day we are human being and there are other part of life that puts constraint on our trading."
I dont understand your view.You dont want to look at the Profit but just the Loss trades.Even if you discount the Trade of election time in which more than 1500 points were earned , I can list a number of trades in normal days where the points earned have been above 500+.I dont have the time to look at each trade for you but still listing two trades :
27/20/08 +1026 points
17/9/09 +541 points.
Quote:
Regarding the emotions when trading then let me inform you that if you are trading a system then please keep your emotions away.The Simple reason why my System has resulted in Profits is because emotions were not a part of it.That is the reason I have posted the System Reports right from 2007 so that almost all kinds of markets are covered in it including the biggest bear market of the decade.
You need to hold your loss or profit till the System doesnot ask you to book it.You can backtest the System and check its results but you cannot backtest your emotions and test it that whether they resulted in more profits or no.So I simply go by the System because the Results are infront of me.
"I agree with you.. but I think it is lot easy to say then practice it. As a human being, it is difficult to keep emotions away. We can be emotionless only in 2 cases - when we are dead or we are in comma.
But we certainly can feel the emotions and CHOOSE our respone to them.
This system is your baby so you know it in and out, but for others, it will be difficult to have that kind of trust. As a system trader, one needs to know when the system is not working. I have read about few system traders who have given up lots of profit before realising that market has changed and the basic underlying concept of their system is no more valid now."
Yes I agree that because I have made this System my trust is surely more than anyone elses at this moment on this System , which is natural.That is the reason I am posting the trades so that the people interested can atleast keep a record of how the system is performing over a period of time.Regarding whether the system will work in future or no,I dont think anyone can answer that,not only about my system but any system.But it doesnot make sense to only see the negatives of everything.If a System has given profits in the past 4 years in a row, then only a foolish person will bet against it.Once the System starts giving continous losses only then will it be a point to worry,and I dont think anyone would wait till then and miss the profits.
Regarding emotions,then I feel you are a very emotional person,its better you dont trade any system.If you want I can recommend some books by experts about how to control your emotions when trading.
Quote:
If you can inform me any System which has given similar or more results with the input of emotions then I will be happy to trade it.
In the end its about belief and nothing else.If you fear of losing then forget winning.
If you see the results of each year ie 2007 , 2008 , 2009 and 2010 all have resulted profits.If a system has resulted profits in the all past 4 years and after that also if you feel your emotions are better than the System , then Many Congrats from my side, you must be a genius.
Quote:
Lastly I have not forced anyone to trade this system.
"That's right. And reader here are matured enough to understand it. With my post here, I just tried to explain how to read behind the standard amibroker system tester report and goto next level of analysis and see if the system really fits the trader or not.
Areebs, It is not that I don't have system. I have tested the system on Metastock but now-a-day, I develop and test them manually. That trains my brain, eyes, mind everything to see each a every trade happening on historic data.. and during the process, I generate lot many idea's to improve the system. I have also shared simple backtesting sheet in TJ. So I am not novice in this topic.
I trade options and have backtested systems for options. I wouldn't risk my money on my idea's until I have proven to myself that idea will generate money for me.
I accept that we may have different views on same subject and we both are right at our place.. So it is upto you if you want to reply them or not. but I am not going to spend any more of my
time to explain my view
.
Wish you all the best with your trading."
Why dont you post the Backtested results of your System here from 2007 onwards,let me also learn from you how to develop systems which only give profits and no losses, and are to be traded with emotions.
Good luck to you also in your trades and hopefully you earn a lot !
Regarding the Largest Loss of 9.9lacs then let me inform you its just -245 on (29/10/09) Bank Nifty points which is nothing exceptional and the amount is 9.9lacs because the Trading Capital has grown from 2007 and hence more lots are being Traded.Its just 2.92% of the Trading Capital.
"It is conditional that the start date of backtest was from 2007 and hence accumulated profit could absorb the big drawdown. If you change the start date of system test to 2001. These number is lac's will turn into Crores. But if one just happen to start trading this system from Jan-2009 with 100000 of capital.. probably trader would have blown the account."
Why dont you do some hard work before commenting ?
Firstly I have the Data only from 2007 so unfortunately I cannot backtest from 2001 or anything prior to 2007.If you have the data or know from where I can get the data then please inform me, I will surely post the Backtest results of the same system from that date.
I have listed the results for each year in different files. If you see the result of the year 2009 from 1 January to 29 Oct 2009(on which the loss occured) , then the total points gained in Bank Nifty is 6976 after deducting the Loss. Now you sit with a calculator and explain to me how will the account be blown ?
If you are a safe trader and just trade with 1 lot of Bank Nifty in Rs 1 lac Capital then also the total amount of Rs 1 lac with grow to 448800 in just 10 months including your biggest loss.(Jan 1 to 29 Oct 2009)
In a system you dont see the amount of Profit or Loss, you see the % and points earned.You can play with the capital according to your risk.
Quote:
Regarding the Largest Profit of 4932975 and holding it for 100 bars, then let me inform you this trade happened on 14/5/09 at 2.35pm and was booked at 19/5/09 2.40pm, so holding for only 3 trading days as 16th and 17th were Sat and Sunday. So if for you holding a position for 3 days is long then maybe Swing trading is not for you.
"This is exactly why I don't believe in such 1 off / 6 sigma trades.. It was the time when election result shocked our market, POSITIVELY. I don't remember seeing in history where index locks up on Upper Band which happened at that time. Hitting of lower band is more acceptable..
In my approach of evaluating a trading system - I try to knockoff such skewed trades (specailly on +ive trades).. and see the impact on performance. However strong is your discipline, there are chance that you might not have been in that big winner trade. At the end of the day we are human being and there are other part of life that puts constraint on our trading."
I dont understand your view.You dont want to look at the Profit but just the Loss trades.Even if you discount the Trade of election time in which more than 1500 points were earned , I can list a number of trades in normal days where the points earned have been above 500+.I dont have the time to look at each trade for you but still listing two trades :
27/20/08 +1026 points
17/9/09 +541 points.
Quote:
Regarding the emotions when trading then let me inform you that if you are trading a system then please keep your emotions away.The Simple reason why my System has resulted in Profits is because emotions were not a part of it.That is the reason I have posted the System Reports right from 2007 so that almost all kinds of markets are covered in it including the biggest bear market of the decade.
You need to hold your loss or profit till the System doesnot ask you to book it.You can backtest the System and check its results but you cannot backtest your emotions and test it that whether they resulted in more profits or no.So I simply go by the System because the Results are infront of me.
"I agree with you.. but I think it is lot easy to say then practice it. As a human being, it is difficult to keep emotions away. We can be emotionless only in 2 cases - when we are dead or we are in comma.
But we certainly can feel the emotions and CHOOSE our respone to them.
This system is your baby so you know it in and out, but for others, it will be difficult to have that kind of trust. As a system trader, one needs to know when the system is not working. I have read about few system traders who have given up lots of profit before realising that market has changed and the basic underlying concept of their system is no more valid now."
Yes I agree that because I have made this System my trust is surely more than anyone elses at this moment on this System , which is natural.That is the reason I am posting the trades so that the people interested can atleast keep a record of how the system is performing over a period of time.Regarding whether the system will work in future or no,I dont think anyone can answer that,not only about my system but any system.But it doesnot make sense to only see the negatives of everything.If a System has given profits in the past 4 years in a row, then only a foolish person will bet against it.Once the System starts giving continous losses only then will it be a point to worry,and I dont think anyone would wait till then and miss the profits.
Regarding emotions,then I feel you are a very emotional person,its better you dont trade any system.If you want I can recommend some books by experts about how to control your emotions when trading.
Quote:
If you can inform me any System which has given similar or more results with the input of emotions then I will be happy to trade it.
In the end its about belief and nothing else.If you fear of losing then forget winning.
If you see the results of each year ie 2007 , 2008 , 2009 and 2010 all have resulted profits.If a system has resulted profits in the all past 4 years and after that also if you feel your emotions are better than the System , then Many Congrats from my side, you must be a genius.
Quote:
Lastly I have not forced anyone to trade this system.
"That's right. And reader here are matured enough to understand it. With my post here, I just tried to explain how to read behind the standard amibroker system tester report and goto next level of analysis and see if the system really fits the trader or not.
Areebs, It is not that I don't have system. I have tested the system on Metastock but now-a-day, I develop and test them manually. That trains my brain, eyes, mind everything to see each a every trade happening on historic data.. and during the process, I generate lot many idea's to improve the system. I have also shared simple backtesting sheet in TJ. So I am not novice in this topic.
I trade options and have backtested systems for options. I wouldn't risk my money on my idea's until I have proven to myself that idea will generate money for me.
I accept that we may have different views on same subject and we both are right at our place.. So it is upto you if you want to reply them or not. but I am not going to spend any more of my
time to explain my view
.
Wish you all the best with your trading."
Why dont you post the Backtested results of your System here from 2007 onwards,let me also learn from you how to develop systems which only give profits and no losses, and are to be traded with emotions.
Good luck to you also in your trades and hopefully you earn a lot !
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | Free courses on Swing Trading | Swing Trading | 3 | |
|
What is swing trading? | Swing Trading | 3 | |
| P | Bank Nifty Swing | Derivatives | 36 | |
| A | Swing bank nifty - with backtested report | Swing Trading | 2 | |
| T | Swing Trading Bank Nifty Future Feb'10 Series | Futures | 14 |