Sunil_1972 view on market

[sunil_1972]

Halo Praveen Taneja. Thanks for your reply. Normally nobody replying to me so that I am putting my views and trades nakedly. Good healthy discussion always needed for every one. Even an analyst will become confused with market movement like today. Thanks once again and keep it up.

 

[sunil_1972]

I said in the morning about the pull back by asian markets and India. But all went wrong. Still some light of hope left in asia as Shanghai didnt crossed down 200 DMA and Hangseng still above 3 DMA.
Meanwhile Dow fell 200 points and European markets are more than 2% down. If Hangseng breaks 200 DMA (20166) tomorrow morning and closes below, things will become worse.

Nifty not crossed my stoploss figure. We are running through a difficult situation. But I am not afraid of. Nifty still not crossed 4830 in closing basis and 4766 intraday low. Taking a new long position is risky in this situation but holding a long position is much easy. Tomorrow will be more interesting.

 

[mayavi99]

DOW down by 209 points now and NASDAQ by 50 points. Morning, we will see the close. But do you still expect a pull back? By the way, 15day EMA of nifty has moved below the 50 day EMA recently. On the three earlier occasions when this happened in 2008(Jan, May & Sept), nifty fell down by more than 1000 points. I feel better will be to take a PUT instead of a call at this juncture. I have covered myself with 4800pe @ 70.

 

[sunil_1972]

Sea of red all around
The crack started in Asia yesterday, followed by Europe, boosted by US and now back in Asia again. Reason for fall is the same old stories. Disappointing economic data, recession fear, dollar rally..... I said once in my reply that Asia should lead the rally. Not US. That did't happened so far.

Singapore Nifty crossed my stoploss figure of 4766 and now trading 4722. Shanghai recovered some of its losses, but still under 200 DMA. As I said yesterday Hangseng fell below 200 DMA for the first time since May 4, 2009. Dow 200 DMA is way below 9470.

Nifty's 200 DMA now positioned at 4640. This is the key line for me. Whether we cross it today? I afraid. 500 point gap produced by Hangseng is still there. Wheter it go up to fill that gap? Difficult situation to predict.

 

[sunil_1972]

Sold 100 Nifty Call of strike 5000 @ 27.35 at 3.10 p.m
Booked loss of 22 points.

 

[mayavi99]

Squared my 4800pe @ 187(bought @ 70 yesterday). Booked profit after brokerage=115 points.

 

[sunil_1972]

Dow made a smart come back on friday with a 170 points from days low and closed above 10 K. Asian indices are still under pressure and trading direction less. I will watch the game from outside. Captain DOW itself will lead the recovery? wait and watch.

 

[sunil_1972]

Nifty becoming a good 'actor'. It played the role exactly what Dow done on Friday. Dow made a 'doji' pattern, but followon buying is needed for trend reversal. Meantime it tradeing flat. Waiting for any news? If it can close with good positive points we can also change our direction.

200 DMA is the major point of worry for our market. It now positioned at 4660. Defenitely it will act as major support, but some of Asian indices (Shanghai, Hangseng etc) are well below that line. Normally Nifty follows Hangseng. So it is difficult to predict a direction. Equal chance for sharp fall and sharp pull back. Open interest based Put-Call ration is now under 1 (0.99). Put-Call ratio of Feb contract is 0.94. 14 day RSI at 22 and is entering towards the buy zone.

If Nifty can bounce from 200 DMA we can expect a pull back up to 5020 at least and then Budget will decide direction.

 

[sunil_1972]

Bought Nifty 4900 call @ 58
Taking chance on long position.

 

[mayavi99]

This time try to keep a stop loss, instead of trying to average. As the trend is unclear, i prefer to exit my fno trades on the same day, without taking home any position.