SJD's Notes

[sanjosedesi]

Another that got away ...

Tata Motors ... in this case no profit no loss. Sold at cost after 2-3 or was it 4 hours.

This was not as ripe as axis bank, since it was not touching the channel, just midway in the bottom half.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Commentary: If you think there is too much analysis ... this is just a public scratch pad for me. Maybe I gain something if people have any comments, maybe you gain something. At worst ... I kill a few electrons (maybe a few million electrons ... with a "b") ... that's fine with me.

 

[DanPickUp]

What time frames are you using or showing on that screen shots ?

 

[sanjosedesi]

Hi Dan, these are hourly charts.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Some quote related to this week and the last few charts:

Better to be a wise trader than a clever one. Better to recognize consolidation than imagine a trend. Better to miss the boat than drown.

 

[DanPickUp]

Some quote related to this week and the last few charts:

Better to be a wise trader than a clever one. Better to recognize consolidation than imagine a trend. Better to miss the boat than drown.

Wise words and why did you still make some loss?

 

[DanPickUp]

Deleted as it was not an important post ----------------------------------

 

[sanjosedesi]

Wise words and why did you still make some loss?

I wish wisdom came first ! It usually does not.

There are a lot of people who can read a book and then mechanically do what they are supposed to have learnt there. For me ... it is like a 9-12 month baby trying to stand up ... over and over and over ... the hope being that like the baby eventually learns and starts walking ... so will you ;-)

 

[DanPickUp]

I wish wisdom came first ! It usually does not.

There are a lot of people who can read a book and then mechanically do what they are supposed to have learnt there. For me ... it is like a 9-12 month baby trying to stand up ... over and over and over ... the hope being that like the baby eventually learns and starts walking ... so will you ;-)

Dear Sanjosedesi

Books are a source. Nothing more and nothing less.

After reading a book or a thread or a source what is the next thing to do?

......................................................?

 

[sanjosedesi]

By the way: I am waiting for new entries in the EU/USD as I not hold much about that 3 and 5 and 15 and 60 minute mumbo jumbo pivot points posted from some experts here even about nifty. It may works in beta market and it not to work in alpha markets.

Tested many thing in Alpha markets and it just showed off again as mumbo jumbo. Sorry to say.

I do not know about pivot points. I see a lot of people going ga ga over them, but I do not have faith in them. However, I have never tried them so can't say much. Well ... I did plot Paul's S&Rs once and the price did seem to bounce off from there, but its like this ... the price has to bounce off from somewhere, isn't it? And if you have daily S&Rs at a gap of 0.2-0.3% (and weekly S&Rs at a gap of 2-3%) ... it will seem to bounce off from even if you pick the numbers at random. The skill is in figuring out if it will bounce or continue ... and that has nothing to do with pivots.

The one thing I have truly seen work multiple times (more than 10 for sure) is the resistance / support / trend line from daily charts and applied that to hourly charts.

But would any successful trader show his most successful strategy include Mister Saint? :lol::lol:

I do not claim to be an expert, but I am coming to a conclusion that trading success has nothing to do with technique / strategy but discipline. I started with ichimoku kumo breakout ... worked fine because the move rammed through many S&Rs (at least it rammed through all the prices of the past 52 periods) and the move still had enough momentum ... clearly visible on the charts that it gave me a few percentages. If I can have the discipline to wait for similar trades, I think it will not be hard to have some very good trades. However, when you (I) take shortcut of trying to sense momentum when it is actually consolidation ... obviously you will take a hit. After a bit of practice, probably you get used to these and exit sooner rather than later, or know when to hold and when to fold, but if someone is willing to wait just for the high conviction bets ... and they do come every 2-4 weeks, that is enough !! That is enough to give you 50% year over year, and 100% if you are smarter in scanning and finding trades for alternate scrips / pairs !! You do not need a major strategy.

Anyway, that's my theory of the week. What do you think?