NooBs Trading Step into Wild Market

Discussion in 'Trading Diary' started by frisky, Dec 16, 2016.

  1. frisky

    frisky Member

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    Hello all, :eat:
    Obviously this is yet another trading journal over here, let's see how long this stays though.

    Aim

    - To be Intraday Trader in future
    - So be successful on paper trades to be become an Intraday trader.

    Process involved

    PROCESS 1 - Getting the BIAS of Market RIGHT being Paper Trader


    Step 1) Preparing a watchlist in F&O segment for tomorrows trade
    Step 2) Using Bollinger Band, Volume & S/R , scan all F&O's
    Step 3) Adding the bias of analysis whether SHORT or LONG entry.
    Step 4) Next day, let the market move ( Not worried about Enty or Exit, just watching for now)
    Step 5) At EOD , post market analysis
    Step 6) Analyze the possible entries on the bias you were correct, analyze the wrong bias on where it went wrong.
    Step 7) Record the observations.
    Step 8) Calculate the Win Loss Ratio just based on the bias
    Step 9) Repeat the steps again.
    Step 10) To improvise to get the WLR >1 for daily basis
    Step 11) Improvise to get WLR > 3 on monthly basis ( To calculate the average though)


    PROCESS 2

    Not yet started until I achieve WLR > 1 , I have planned them out as well. But I need to work out my WLR as if now. That's what I am trying to improvise.:!


    -------------------------------------------------

    What is WLR ?

    - It is Win Loss Ratio.

    WLR = Total Win Bias for the day / Total Loss Bias for the day


    Please note that, I am only considering the WLR for just BIAS of market. This will take further break down as in when I start to trade.WLR will change for number of trades with respect to Money Management.

    So overall, even if I am riding with my present WLR ratio which is shown below , I must make money eventually, which is just for BIAS BIAS BIAS !!

    Below is my excel record sheet , that I started from 14-Dec-16 onwards.


    [​IMG]

    If it is not visible enough

    The Columns that I use are

    RESULT - This is post market data if my bias was right it will take as TRUE or else FALSE
    STOCK NAME - Scrip
    BIAS - Market Bias ( My possible way to look into the market for tomorrow)
    BOLLINGER BAND - Candle on Upper Band or Lower Band
    VOLUME - Very High/ High/Medium/Low/Very Low
    S/R - Support or resistance / 200 MA / 20 MA
    CANDLE PATTERN - Just candle pattern formations
    DAILY VOLATILITY - From nseindia.com
    REMARKS - If any
    PRIOR DAY REALITY - What happened to market next day?
    INFERENCE - My observation on where I went wrong/right and record them and appreciate and punish myself.

    At the bottom, WLR Calculation part. I intend to improve further once I start to trade better with risk : reward analysis. As if now, I am focused on WLR above 1


    Still to be continued further..

     
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  2. frisky

    frisky Member

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    Trade effort for the day 16-Dec-16

    [​IMG]

    I will calculate the average WLR once in a week when I complete 5 day series. As if now , it is just two day move.

    Mistakes - Relying too much on candles alone
    - Picking up too many stocks for watchlist

    Inference - Candle may not always work
    - It is better to reduce the size of watchlist and look with better odd stocks
     
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  3. Tavnaz

    Tavnaz Well-Known Member

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    Hello friend,
    The inherent level of energy and excitement ,coming from your thread is fairly obvious from your first post,and the language you use to describe your thought process tells that you are analytical in nature.All in all you are off to good start,you have set aside your skills which you will need in this journey,I welcome your thread as a wonderful addition to the community.
    I don't frequent forums as much these days ,but i do enjoy a good read occasionally,much of it comes from fresh meat that comes to trading grinder,hehe,Don't get offended okay i am just being lil bit humorous here,most people in trading would understand what i wish to convey.
    Your preparations are great,spread sheets look great and sexy,complex terms are all thrown in together,number crunching and analytical thought process is all emanating from your post,but all in all you are still unprepared for the constant grind of trading.
    I can call the grind cause i have been there and, i still feel it from time to time,i can also relate to you cause i too am good at organizing and being analytical,but they don't really make for a great skill set by themselves.

    You are over-stretching your attention to greater then usual watch-list,you should stick to major,big players,5-6 scrips.
    The fact that you use the word infer for candle and subsequent behavior tells that you are not good at TA(chart reading),you should checkout the popular Price action methods pivot method is all rage these days,it is quite strong,you can look for thread by subhadip in traderji.
    You sure as hell don't look like an FA(fundamentals DCF etc) guy,which just says you are soo New.

    All that bias thing doesn't really help when you are trading small time frames,when you are trading with weekly trend 15 minute trend will abide by weekly but can sure as hell torture you by going counter to weekly trend.
    You are in right direction with bias thing but you need a base line a time frame where you will use that bias,popular intraday time frame is 5 min,you need to learn and develop a method that will tell you the trend in the intraday time frame,and that method has to be firm and rule based,more like if this then that.If high breaks i close a short type etc etc,learn pivot method,for start.

    Next big trap is multiple inferences,you will draw each day,market can show a hand in a million ways,don't mean you will infer a million things.You need to make rules under which you will participate in the market(like you wont trade on news days etc etc),and understanding of 5-6 or just a few basic ways the market behaves,(picture a trend it always breaks highs or lows before moving,but a bear candle can fail depending on the fact it may be in a bull trend,or may work an cause minor drop,)which means just inferring candle behavior will lead to much poor understanding of markets.

    You should start with major scrips or some big index o your choice,choose nifty,and get familiar with the rhythm of that scrip or index,some scrips breakout and die for few days,some break every few hours,some have specific hours of volatility,most have volatility at market open.

    You should fund a small live account of 3000 rupees or close(don't blow your account,if you do,don't destroy your life savings blindly till you know what you are doing),and start trading with real money paper trading is going to waste you time,you can paper trade for 1-2 months but don't push that time line,and never imagine paper gains will happen in reality,paper trading ain't money,once you have learn't a basic system and have started trading that system in real market,you will learn emotional control and will power to follow rules,choose the right system,will power wont save you when your system sucks.,start with system search.

    Don't complicate things keep them simple, hehe,remember you wont remember complicated things when you need them,only simple things will make trading decisions simpler.

    You are already good at number crunching i am sure i don;t have to write down,a paragraph on performance assessment,analyze how the system is fairing in real market,and add in the emotional downfall if any that is causing results to stagger.

    I am sure fellow forum members will contribute a lot more wisdom,i leave the stage for them.

    Finally keep your friends and family close,it's easy for trading stress to creep up in personal life,always remember you choose trading for happy life,and life wont be happy without fun and family,always create time with them and keep them close.

    My post was intended to welcome your thread,take no offence if i appear pompous,take my words as guidance from a big brother to lil brother or a happy discussion between two friends,i greet you once again welcome to the jungle,us fellow animals of this jungle will be watching over you and help you as needed,and don't get sad when you fail,just get up and fight back.

    Good luck with this mighty endeavor ,this thread will be interesting read.
    I hope you achieve what you desire.
    God bless you
    ;-)
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2016
  4. TradeOptions

    TradeOptions Well-Known Member

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    Wish you the very best frisky :)
     
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  5. Ash2b

    Ash2b New Member

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    Ver good tips and advise tanvaz

    Sent from my HTC One X9 dual sim using Tapatalk
     
  6. TradeOptions

    TradeOptions Well-Known Member

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    @Tavnaz, brother you have written a very warm, welcoming post. :thumb:
    I am sure frisky would be pleased by that. :clap:

    Best Regards
     

  7. TradeOptions

    TradeOptions Well-Known Member

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    @frisky, how exactly are you classifying the volume into these 5 different categories ? Which criteria do you take for this, for classifying the volume, on a daily basis ?

    Regarding Candle Pattern Column
    Are you noting down these patterns visually or if running some scanner in Amibroker etc. and then simply copy pasting the scan results into Excel Sheet ?

    Same thing for the S/R Levels Column
    Are you observing these levels manually, on the charts, or running some scanner ?

    What about the Remarks Column
    Is the criteria for Remarks is Subjective Analysis or if you follow some Very Objective Well Defined Rules, to make that remark ?

    The Inference Column
    Obviously looks like a totally subjective analysis column to me. And that is perfectly fine, for this particular column.

    But if you are doing all this analysis for 30+ symbols MANUALLY, then I must say that it would be a huge Work Load on a daily basis. Hopefully you already have some objective and well defined rules based method for most of the columns.

    Wish you all the best.
    Thanks and best regards
     
  8. frisky

    frisky Member

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    Tavnaz,

    Thank you for the wonderful IN's and OUT's of the market along with the detailed explanation of where I should be strong. I shall take into account of what you said.

    So far, what I am doing is just the NEXT DAY BIAS element factor alone, whether the market moves against my analysis or in favor. AGREED upon the small time frame factor. But taking the trade is upto my mind and that should happen if my analysis is moving in my favor or else neglect that stock for the day completely. And I haven't yet provided my trade plan for next day though, which is under progress.

    Will definitely agree upon keeping things simple. Will strive to work upon it.

    TradeOptions,

    Volume - analysis is based upon looking into the Volume bars, compare it with previous 5-7 days. If high volume occurs at Support or Resistance, someone is doing something to the stock, which obviously is to look upon.

    S/R - Just reading charts

    Remarks - These are something,of what I infer when I see the chart and my expectation for tomorrow, which may or maynot happen. It is purely subjective alone.

    Inference - Post market analysis, where I went wrong/correct. Subjective

    Stock Selection - Going through all the F&O stocks, not fixed with any particular stock. I feel that, giving many chart hours trying to understand the psychology is what I intend to learn and evolve.

    My stock selection goes with the follow steps.

    Before that, let me show my standard template of how I analyze

    [​IMG]

    Template consists of

    - 200 SMA
    - 20 SMA
    - Ichi Cloud alone
    - Volume bars
    ( I don't trade with indicators, only price action)

    This is just example that I would like to give out. I look for patterns evolving at any of the following : S/R, Ichi Cloud, 200MA,20MA, UB , LB

    So in the above example, you can see a formation of Shooting star on 15-Dec-16 which is meeting criteria as

    - At Resistance
    - Having High volume
    - Series of Blue bars , meaning at some point buyers should get exhausted.
    - Outside Bollinger Band

    So obviously my bias for the next day (16-Dec-16) would be to go SHORT and I might add on the remarks as in " EXPECT A GAP DOWN or Go SHORT".

    Well apparently, it went UP next day, my bias was wrong. But still, the factor that I am reading here is BUYERS are not that much considering the Volume following day and the are getting exhausted and it is inside this shooting star candle. Still my BIAS is SHORT, at least, it needs to go one candle RED.

    So I would take the trade, when the low of the candle is broken, that is another chapter for me.

    This is what I do over and over for all 178 Scrips in F&O and I record whichever gives me a trigger. And it is not much of a work load, I just got used to it.

    It takes like 1 hour to go through all the stocks. I like doing this very much, and I enjoy it.

    : )
     
  9. TradeOptions

    TradeOptions Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the explanations bro.

    Best Regards
     
  10. frisky

    frisky Member

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    Hello to whomsoever reading this,:eat:

    19-Dec-16 Updates

    Today, it was interesting , I took a real paper trade sitting in front , with respect to my analysis that i did already. The stock was BEL, I was keenly looking into it for a trade as it did show some positive sign for me to trade previous day itself setting up a confident BIAS for today.

    [​IMG]

    BEL was shortlisted from the above list for today's trade and trade went as follows

    15M chart

    [​IMG]

    I wanted the price to break above the HIGH of previous day though, during first half hour , it went down and gave a BULLING ENGULFING pattern for me. I thought this must be the moment to get inside a LONG, switched to 3M chart

    [​IMG]

    And this happened, well since it was mere paper trade, my real money emotion was not prevailing. But I do understand that part from all other threads provided. Anyhow, I mentally set my TGT, SL and ENTRY, all was genuine and got it right.

    Will see further how things roll on.
     
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