Nifty : Stats & Views

[linkon7]

There was massive portfolio churning today from both the FII and DII...

FII bot 3309 cr and sold 3283 cr...net inflow of just 25.6 cr

DII bot 1230 cr and sold 1234 cr...net outflow of just 4 cr

Even the derivative segment, FII net sold 77 cr on index.... but value of open interest shot up to 17369 cr... a cool m2m profit of 1096 cr...

This single day of massive up move has reversed the eod chart to bullish...but the net fund inflow figure is a bit worrisome...

 

[linkon7]

looks like the trendline is challenged again... 5784 remains critical stoploss for this up move..it has already secured a 3 touch and will now be respected by price....

Trendline on rsi was never broken...hence assumption is correction is over... the pace of correction was almost vertical...but sadly this up move was a factor of just portfolio shuffling and didnt accompany any fresh inflow from either FII or DII....

 

[linkon7]

The markets were quite inconsistent today and closed with sharp cuts. Selling pressure came in the afternoon and it was prevalent across all sectors. Selective FMCG and auto were the only stocks where some buying was registered. The Sensex closed at 19095 (provisional), down 292 points from its previous close, and Nifty closed at 5732 (provisional), down 92 points. The CNX Midcap index was down 1.5% and the BSE Smallcap index was down 0.7%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 358 against declines of 946 on the NSE.

 

[linkon7]

Nifty failed to take out the trendline and has broken the crucial 5784 on closing basis. This was accompanied with a break on trendline on rsi and stoch finally climbing below the 80 mark.

There was a nagging suspicion that the attempt to breach the 4970 mark was just a fake. The massive up move wasn't followed with any net inflow from either FII and DII and turned out to be just sector rotation. Even on the index FII remained net sellers...

On friday they sold about 970 cr on the index and still managed to keep their OI value at 17,242 cr.

Today's figure will reveal the depth of their intention.

On the chart, its now clean sell with stop loss at 5784. A bar close above this mark invalidates the reason for the sell, hence stoploss remains at 5784 for any shorts.

In terms of target, we can see that the trend line from the bottom gives us a target of 5497 which also happens to be the top of the cloud, which represents bi monthly value for us.

Monthly value is flat and is at 5678. Since its flat, it just means that no new high or low was made. TS is now at 5837 and is rapidly shifting lower. TS represents weekly valuation and a lower weekly valuation gives us comfort to hold short... as market now has to auction lower to search for buyers.


SO assumption is its time to return to value as buyers are not willing to buy high with the hope of selling higher.

 

[linkon7]

Today's figure will reveal the depth of their intention.

They bot 2637 cr and sold 2693 cr on the index. i.e.The FII sold 50 cr net on the index futures segment. But their OI value has dropped by a whopping 747 cr to 16495 cr.


On the cash segment...they sold about 981 cr
while dii bot about 661 cr....


This sell figure is the most aggressive this month so far...

so far liquidity was the driving force of this rally and that liquidity is slowly evaporating....

 

[321Phani123]

Linkon could u please explain ..... ??
""But their OI value has dropped by a whopping 747 cr to 16495 cr.""

 

[linkon7]

Linkon could u please explain ..... ??
""But their OI value has dropped by a whopping 747 cr to 16495 cr.""

intraday, they bot 90689 contracts and sold 92779 contracts....
end of the day.. they are still holding 5,75,220 contracts on index.


On friday close the value of their holding on index was 17242 cr
End of today's close, the value is 16495 cr
down 747 cr.

 

[krushi123]

Does that mean, they are playing for some small recovery to 5784 tomorrow?

intraday, they bot 90689 contracts and sold 92779 contracts....
end of the day.. they are still holding 5,75,220 contracts on index.


On friday close the value of their holding on index was 17242 cr
End of today's close, the value is 16495 cr
down 747 cr.

 

[linkon7]

below 5706... the next VPOC is at 5592, 5532 and 5487.

weekly profile suggest very strong weakness below the 5687 mark...5532 is the only vpoc on weekly...

 

[linkon7]

Does that mean, they are playing for some small recovery to 5784 tomorrow?

Its absolutely foolish to forecast what the market will do tomorrow. Right side of the chart will always remain random. We are trying to locate buying / selling interest by the bigger players by looking at the left side of the chart....

5784 is the break down point. A close above this lvl means the fall was used by bulls to buy the dips so does not justify holding shorts above this level....