NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[Option.Trader]

@Option.Trader

Thanks to post the screen shot. As you know me, I usually do not make any comment about where any market may could go. Some times our analyzes work and other times we are surprised about our thoughts.

After analyzing your data on the screen shot you posted and after seeing and analyzing the chart from Manojborle, we have now two tools for an analyzes. The third one: Calendar events and the fourth one: FA, is missing to what I now say.

In my view and with the given data now and the given chart: There is a high probability that your market could move up until expiration. Why? Most simple analyzes: Hammer on a bigger time frame on the chart (Weekly) and a put call ratio from 2:1. Just those two little tools in combination short before expiry can give information about a possible short time trend. Did you ever look at it this way?

Take care / DanPickUp

Interesting, PCR stands at .87 for the record.. Vix has come down, Puts are being written, so yes.. all these point to a short covering rally.. but on the whole, FII's are still massively short and Option Max pain still indicates 5500.. so unless there is a massive short covering i dont see the rally continuing..
Fundamentally, Rupee had the 2nd largest single day appreciation, cant really see any other triggers fundamentally for it to go up

 

[Stock trendy]

@Option.Trader

Thanks to post the screen shot. As you know me, I usually do not make any comment about where any market may could go. Some times our analyzes work and other times we are surprised about our thoughts.

After analyzing your data on the screen shot you posted and after seeing and analyzing the chart from Manojborle, we have now two tools for an analyzes. The third one: Calendar events and the fourth one: FA, is missing to what I now say.

In my view and with the given data now and the given chart: There is a high probability that your market could move up until expiration. Why? Most simple analyzes: Hammer on a bigger time frame on the chart (Weekly) and a put call ratio from 2:1. Just those two little tools in combination short before expiry can give information about a possible short time trend. Did you ever look at it this way?

Take care / DanPickUp

All these technical tools are known to many particularly to the big players..
how come they allow the retail small trader to make profit with these kind of technical tools ..Look at the state of afire Inflation touching roof high though the data show pretty different picture $..verses..Indian Rupee all time high..crude hitting its peek. As a trader it is Very important to make profitable trade..!! Spot Nifty from the bottom of 5254 and reached 5470 with all thees negative back drops still it may claim up. spot nifty moved to 5470..levels what next if any one is long hold with sl of 5404 on closing and crosses above 5505 hold long with sl of 5505 and ride the move.. It is truly traders market those who can trade without any bias..:thumb:

 

[arcus]

True, but you cant look at it singularly... they would have hedged it, put complex synthetics...it'll be interesting to see how it behaves... whether they still have firepower to sustain the counter trends by the pro's and clients... but as the previous freak trade shows.. just a basket of 50 crores of index stocks is enough to nudge the trade towards your favor..as of now expiry in the range of 5400-5500 looks more likely.. maybe they will start afresh next month?

I agree. My opinion is that the market may remain rangebound (between 5300-5500) till expiry.

Whenever the market breaks an important support level (around 5500 which was holding for a year), it usually doesnt bounce back up so soon unless it was a bear trap.

This whole downmove from 6100 levels to 5200 levels look a lot similar to what happened in Feb 2011 when the market also fell from 6200 levels to 5200 levels.

We can see in the chart below that the market consolidated sideways for the next 2 months in the band of 5200-5500 following the steep downmove.

That doesnt mean its going to happen the same way but its just that the market usually consolidates after any sharp move.

As far as the hammer is concerned, the hammer usually signals a reversal of the downtrend. That does not necessarily mean the beginning of an uptrend, it could also mean the beginning of a sideways trend

As Dan said, its not possible to know what the market does. We work with a hypothesis and trade it, if it doesnt work out, we exit taking as minimal losses as possible.

 

[DanPickUp]

Interesting, PCR stands at .87 for the record.. Vix has come down, Puts are being written, so yes.. all these point to a short covering rally.. but on the whole, FII's are still massively short and Option Max pain still indicates 5500.. so unless there is a massive short covering i dont see the rally continuing..
Fundamentally, Rupee had the 2nd largest single day appreciation, cant really see any other triggers fundamentally for it to go up

What you show in your screenshot: Option Index call long: 19'571 and Option Index put long: 45'127. So there are two times more puts bought compare to calls: That is how I look at the numbers. Each one of us has his expiriece with those number and each one of us do lock at them in a different way.

Now if I see more puts compare calls short before expiry in certain time frames, the bells start to ring. For me that always starts to smell like a trap and I always start to work on the long side. That is me and do not attack me because of that. Thank you.

You may watch and compare with your ideas for a few months and then take your solution out of it.

Take care / DanPickUp

 

[Option.Trader]

What you show in your screenshot: Option Index call long: 19'571 and Option Index put long: 45'127. So there are two times more puts bought compare to calls: That is how I look at the numbers. Each one of us has his expiriece with those number and each one of us do lock at them in a different way.

Now if I see more puts compare calls short before expiry in certain time frames, the bells start to ring. For me that always starts to smell like a trap and I always start to work on the long side. That is me and do not attack me because of that. Thank you.

You may watch and compare with your ideas for a few months and then take your solution out of it.

Take care / DanPickUp

For the record(Fridays trade) it is 55.7K Call longs and -27.5K Put longs.. basically booked profits in put longs and added call longs..
But in the bigger picture.. they are more than 400K put longs and 168K call longs and short in Future to the tune of 250K... since the start of the series... now would your bells ring in a different way?

 

[DanPickUp]

For the record(Fridays trade) it is 55.7K Call longs and -27.5K Put longs.. basically booked profits in put longs and added call longs..
But in the bigger picture.. they are more than 400K put longs and 168K call longs and short in Future to the tune of 250K... since the start of the series... now would your bells ring in a different way?

What is posted you can apply to any numbers you think are worth for you. Your sheet is your sheet and it seems that I not can get through it. You talk about numbers I can not find and I look at numbers which seem to be wrong. Now I really wondering how much others do understand your sheets. No problem as there is software which does it in other places in other ways.

Even than: But in the bigger picture.. they are more than 400K put longs and 168K call longs

Perfect: Two times more puts compare to calls. Circle closed as the rest is explained in my post. If I say there is a possibility that your market could move up until expiration, I did not mention any targets and I did not say that this is the case after expiration.

As Arcos mentioned: You can face a side way market, beginning with an up move to a resistance level and after expiration a down move to a certain support level.

To neutralize all this put holders, market does not need to move up houndert of points. Just 50 points up will neutralize most of those put holders and the sellers of those puts will smile.

As told: Check the idea a few months and after that take out of it what ever you can. It is not meant to attack you or what ever. Not sure if you got that point.

Take care / DanPickUp

 

[arcus]

now would your bells ring in a different way?

No matter which way the bell rings, it makes the same sound.

 

[Option.Trader]

No matter which way the bell rings, it makes the same sound.

As long as it rings in the cash register, rest is analysis and paralysis

 

[mukkara99]

good morning health raj.

i am regulary following your posts. please let mw know how to form the covered call or put in reliance stock.which software should i use for enter into the trading, please elaborate with examples.

 

[chemmanian]

Dear OT
If I am correct, the future and option positions in your sheet is the total of all series!! Is there any data provided by NSE to know the position of August series or can we calculate it.
It may have happened that FIIs have bought 55K call of Sept series.