Nifty Option strategy as high IV Due to Election Result

[trader_ks]

Every day is learning day.
I think whatever may be the case selling deep ITM should be considered last alternative and specialy during major events. We never know how market will behave and worst sufferers will be sold ITM

 

[toughard]

Every day is learning day.
I think whatever may be the case selling deep ITM should be considered last alternative and specialy during major events. We never know how market will behave and worst sufferers will be sold ITM

nice one, just look at the total OI of option itself.... last month by this time there were 3 folds in OI compare to this month here...

since few months back mid level writers taken a big loss due to sprinted nifty movement, so generally there are kept out of the market this time ....

many pros are staying out of the market now...

only small time enthusiasts are playing to make it big this time...

 

[TradeOptions]

nice one, just look at the total OI of option itself.... last month by this time there were 3 folds in OI compare to this month here...

since few months back mid level writers taken a big loss due to sprinted nifty movement, so generally there are kept out of the market this time ....

many pros are staying out of the market now...

only small time enthusiasts are playing to make it big this time...

thanks toughgard buddy

I am curious about how exactly can we confirm this statement that -
many pros are staying out of the market now and only small time enthusiasts are playing to make it big this time...

Can we do this by comparing the open interest and trading volume of the various strikes, like ATM, and top 2 ITM and OTM, making it a total bracket of 5 strikes "excluding the middle 50 Rs strikes.

How do we know if the Big Guys are fully involved or if they are sitting at the side lines ?

Thanks

 

[toughard]

thanks toughgard buddy

I am curious about how exactly can we confirm this statement that -
many pros are staying out of the market now and only small time enthusiasts are playing to make it big this time...

Can we do this by comparing the open interest and trading volume of the various strikes, like ATM, and top 2 ITM and OTM, making it a total bracket of 5 strikes "excluding the middle 50 Rs strikes.

How do we know if the Big Guys are fully involved or if they are sitting at the side lines ?

Thanks

mother of all these things is money... just see what the amount of money that is in options this time ... by this time during all other months we have seen more than 2000 crore on board through PE & CE both...

big money is missing means... big boys are absent

 

[Vertigo_1985]

How do we know if the Big Guys are fully involved or if they are sitting at the side lines ?

Thanks

nifty has been in range between 6650-6850, intraday moves have been mostly ranging since past many days untill yesterday, no follow up in breakouts/downs untill yesterday, volumes have been low..what more is needed to indicate big boys are waiting ?
why did you exit from you nifty call option trade ? exit polls are most likely to give NDA more seats then what they actually get so long before 16th was better and that call should have been held till 16th...

 

[TradeOptions]

mother of all these things is money... just see what the amount of money that is in options this time ... by this time during all other months we have seen more than 2000 crore on board through PE & CE both...

big money is missing means... big boys are absent

Yes bro, correctly said - money is the mother of all these things. The total amount of money at stake from both sides looks less comparatively.

 

[TradeOptions]

nifty has been in range between 6650-6850, intraday moves have been mostly ranging since past many days untill yesterday, no follow up in breakouts/downs untill yesterday, volumes have been low..what more is needed to indicate big boys are waiting ?
why did you exit from you nifty call option trade ? exit polls are most likely to give NDA more seats then what they actually get so long before 16th was better and that call should have been held till 16th...

Vertigo, all those factors also hint towards waiting of big boys.

I regret closing my call options trade so soon, but if we leave yesterday price action, then before that, nifty was clearly showing weakness. No real upside momentum of any kind. Moreover I had down bias for the overall markets "which I still have". But that down move will most probably happen only on 16 May, if NDA does not get a clear majority.

So I will have to wait before buying any puts. I did a quick scan of the markets and a lot of stock puts have gone down by 20-30 % yesterday. If markets go up again on Monday, then these puts will become even cheaper. And I will buy them at that time. I admit that my down bias might be wrong, but the bear within me will not die until I burn atleast 20-30k on buying cheap OTM puts of high beta stocks. :annoyed:

I can afford to loose this money, provided the risk reward ratio is extremely favorable in those selected puts. In the scenario of a major down move in the markets, because of disappointing election results for the bulls.

 

[lemondew]

Still find that it would be better buying strangles if there is an opportunity till 14. But sell off all strangles on 15 th. Would Start selling from 15th vega can kill theta in next few days till 15 th,

To, lemondew - Yes u r right

 

[trader_ks]

I think on 16th vola will be highest because result will keep coming. So positions can be cleared in morning itself after 10-15 mins of market open. Any idea till what time counting will start and what time there willbe fair idea on number of seats?
In my view if anydownfall in nifty and vola has to happen, it will happen only after getting idea of number of seats.

But negative side is that market makers get news before us and we need to very quick in taking decision.

My suggestion to all is that take all the readings from forum as view only but take decision based on your risk appetite.
I may be doing whatever I have written because I amplanning to take risk of 20-30k for big win.

 

[lemondew]

True market makers get news before hence i think it would be safe to sell of max by 15 th evening. Take whatever market offers. :thumb: Also the exit polls would be out and hence there could be some moves before 16th. Again it depends on what movement we have and whether vega further moves up or its coming down.

I think on 16th vola will be highest because result will keep coming. So positions can be cleared in morning itself after 10-15 mins of market open. Any idea till what time counting will start and what time there willbe fair idea on number of seats?
In my view if anydownfall in nifty and vola has to happen, it will happen only after getting idea of number of seats.

But negative side is that market makers get news before us and we need to very quick in taking decision.

My suggestion to all is that take all the readings from forum as view only but take decision based on your risk appetite.
I may be doing whatever I have written because I amplanning to take risk of 20-30k for big win.