Nifty Future trading plan

[mando25]

Update -
No trades as per plan. Nifty Future cam down till 4966 intraday, but our level to go long was around 4950.

Trade Analysis for Tuesday -
1. Nifty futures closed down 10 points on average volumes
2. Bell shaped profile as per market profile. VAL and VAH for tomorrow at 4974 and 4994 respectively
3. Nifty futures now approaching 200 day moving avg. Strong resistance
4. Option data irrelevant near to expiry. However, there was addition in 4800 PE, 4900 PE and 5000 PE showing bullishness
5. Support around 4925 nifty future (30 min. swing). \
6. Highest trade volumes today between 4980/4985 level. This will be pivot for tomorrow
7. Tomorrow, movement between 4925 to 5000 looks choppy as lot of volumes in this zone. Breakout trade from this zone looks safe with 20 point stoploss

Trade Plan -
a) Buy above 5000 with 20 point stoploss. Targets 5025/5030 and 5070
b) Sell below 4925 futures (wait for 5 min. closing below this level)

 

[timepass]

......b) Sell below 4925 futures (wait for 5 min. closing below this level)

Yes. These days the spikes kill off a lot of trades

 

[mando25]

Update -
No trade today also as Nifty future traded in a choppy manner as expected. The low made was 4926 and our level of short was 4925.

Taking a break for tomorrow as it is Expiry day. I would consider a closing below 4925 negative for Nifty Spot (not futures, as from tomorrow, June futures will have to be considered)

 

[mando25]

Trade Analysis for Friday -

1. Nifty futures opened below, stayed below and closed well below 4925 on average volumes
2. Max trade volumes occured at 4836, 4860 and 4896 level
3. Short term Trend turned down, as Nifty closed below 4925
4. Previous low at 4767. If NIfty manages to save this and rallies, it would have made a higher low.
5. Option data points to support a 4800 and 4500, while resistance at 5000
6.Value area as per MP - 4828, 4860 and 4892. Not relevant for tomorrow, as it was not a Bell curve. Previous bell curve resistances at 4904 and 4944 and 4987
7. Oscillators like RSI and Stochastics are off from their oversold positions, unlike last time when Nifty reached it low of 4767

Trade plan for Monday -
1. Sell on any uomove towards 4860, with a 20 point stoploss. Targts can be 4830 and 4795/4765.
2. If does not give opportunity to sell higher, then sell below previous low of 4767 (wait for 5 min. closing below this level to confirm)
3. No longs or tomorrow. Very aggressive longs can be tried around 4767 nifty future ot 4788 nifty spot. These would be with minimum quantity and strict stoploss and reverse on 5 min. closing below the reference levels

 

[mando25]

Update -
Trade 2 and 3 played out today. Morning long initiated got reversed when future closed below 4767 on 5 min. charts. This trade hit stoploss of 20 points, as Nity made a high of 4795. Next opportunity for aggressive trade came again 12:20 PM, when Nifty declined towards 4766.65, and from then on, it was a one way ride. For me, I took the first short trade in the morning and then again, the long trade in the afternoon. However, did not wait for the complete move, as did not have much conviction in longs. Turned out to be a brokers day eventually

 

[mando25]

Trade Analysis for Monday -
1. Nifty futures closed up 30+ points on average volumes
2. Max. traded volumes around 4785 level
3. VAL, POC and VAH for tomorrow - 4760-4782-4804
4. Options data shows covering at 4900 PE - negative and addition at 4700 PE - neutral
5. Nifty managed to reached yesterday;s POC. Tomorrow may be a good selling opportunity, as risk:reward has turned favorable today
6. Swing high at 4926. This is stoploss for positional shorts

Trade plan for Tuesday -
1. If opens up and moves above, Sell in morning near 4870 level with 20 point stoploss. Targets 4850 and 4810
2. If moves further up, sell near 4920 with another 20 point stoploss for 4905 and 4875
3. If moves down in morning trades, buy near 4820/4815, with stoploss at 4800

 

[darshanshukla]

Really Great indeed,
completely practical analysis
keep it up

Trade Analysis for Monday -
1. Nifty futures closed up 30+ points on average volumes
2. Max. traded volumes around 4785 level
3. VAL, POC and VAH for tomorrow - 4760-4782-4804
4. Options data shows covering at 4900 PE - negative and addition at 4700 PE - neutral
5. Nifty managed to reached yesterday;s POC. Tomorrow may be a good selling opportunity, as risk:reward has turned favorable today
6. Swing high at 4926. This is stoploss for positional shorts

Trade plan for Tuesday -
1. If opens up and moves above, Sell in morning near 4870 level with 20 point stoploss. Targets 4850 and 4810
2. If moves further up, sell near 4920 with another 20 point stoploss for 4905 and 4875
3. If moves down in morning trades, buy near 4820/4815, with stoploss at 4800

 

[mando25]

Update -
1. Trade 1 played out today, achieving target and reached closed to target 2.
2. Nifty took support near Buy level of 4820, and ended higher. However, this trade was not taken as it was only for morning trades

 

[mando25]

Trade Analysis of Tuesday -
1. Nifty futures closed almost same level, 7 points down on average volumes
2. Max. traded volumes from 4845 to 4860 zone
3. Skewed Bell shaped profile as per MP. If we see the three day profile, market is forming a bell shaped profile with Max. volumes around 4855 level. This can be treated as pivot for now. 4890/4905 looks like the top of this profile and 4780/4765 the bottom.
4. VAL, POC and VAH for tomorrow at 4839, 4854, 4869
5. In options, addition at 5000 CE and 4900 CE. Small addition at 4900 PE and 4800 PE.
6. Longs will still be risky, to be done with less volume till nifty future stys below 4926

Trade plan for Wednesday -
1. If moves lower in morning trades, Sell below 4838 (5 min. closing) with 20 point stoploss. Targets 4820 (today's low) and 4790
2. If moves higher in morning trades, aggressive longs can be tried above 4870 ( 5 min. closing) with 20 point stoploss for targets 4895 and 4920
3. 4925 and 4870 is the range. Beyond this, positional long/ short to be opened

 

[mando25]

Update -
1. Nifty Future opened 11 points above buy level of 4875. That trade was missed
2. As per Trade 3, Positional long trade triggered above 4925. It is in 50+ profit. Keeping stoploss for these longs 20 points below buy price, i.e. at 4905 level

Trade Analysis for Wednesday -
1. Nifty futures closed up 131 points on higher volume
2. Max. volumes traded at 4934 level
3. Huge open interest addition in 4800 PE, 4900 PE and 5000 PE - positive. Covering also done in calls of these strikes - positive. Small addition at 5200 CE and 5300 CE - neutral
4. Swing high of 4926 broken, triggering positional long. Short term trend positive till Nifty future stays above 4850 now
5. As per market profile, it was a trend day. Value area doesn't matter. Tomorrow can be a neutral/normal day.
6. Upcoming resistance around 4990 and 5030 area for Nifty futures.

Trade Plan for Thursday -
Not planning any intraday trade for tomorrow, as expecting a tight range after such a big move. Will see if any intraday opportunity arises as per market profile. Holding on to the positional longs with stoploss 4905

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