My Nifty/Mini-Nifty Positional trade logs

[summasumma]

I always like SH's 315 positional trading strategy and did trades based on it...
But i was not regular in trading and planning to do it atleast now with the help of basics of 315 and stochastics indicator(which im trying to include along with 315 to see how it helps)... Based on the back-testing, stochs are really helping well...

The trade logs im posting here are not completly based on 315 method and more of stochs... but will certainly use 315 strategies when and where required...
I am trying this based on the following post of mine on stochastics:
http://www.traderji.com/technical-a...ore-comfortable-profitable-22.html#post617209

All trades entered @ EOD after confirming stochs signals...

Date: 23-12-2011
Long MiniNifty @ 4722....

 

[summasumma]

No sign of discrepancy in all 3 stochs which i track from last trade days value. All of them went up.
(32,9,1) = +ve
(21,9,1) = +ve
(15,3,1) = +ve

So Holding MNF long
cmp: 4784

 

[summasumma]

All 3 stochs went up from yesterdays value.
(32,9,1) = up
(21,9,1) = up
(15,3,1) = up

So Holding MNF long
cmp: 4751

 

[Maddy123789]

Hi Summa
Can u just explain me how to use this Theory...

 

[summasumma]

hi maddy,

The plan is for positional trade in nifty only and on daily TF.

(32,9,1) and (21,9,1) full stochastics helps in deciding the trend.
(15,3,1) is like a fast-line and helps in identifying the trend reversal.

Let me try some analogy here...
Lets say (32,9,1) and (21,9,1) are parents and (15,3,1) is their kid

1. When the parents are together and moving in one direction(up or down), it indicates 'strong trend' as they are happy together.
During this time, the kid MIGHT make opposite side movement but not expected to cross the parents. For ex, parents moved from 50 to 60 and kid moved from 65 to 55 in the up-trend is not likely to happen. But kid moving from 65 to 62 at this time is possible and we don't have to worry about this.

2. When the parents are apart, it indicates 'sideline' or 'no trend' period as they are far-away and not happy. Market generally create lot of 315ema whipsaws during this period. So better done take any positional trades.
During this time, the kid will cross the parents in either direction as the parents are not together to take-care of their kid.


- When parents are above 80, its very strong UP trend and don't try to create short position, unless, both parents went down and kid has also went down+closed below 80.

- When parents are below 20, its very strong DOWN trend and don't try to create Long position, unless, both parents went up and kid has also went up+closed above 20.

- we are trying to identify whether the trend has already started or not with the help of parents, that is, when they come close together and start moving in one direction, that direction is the trend.

Please look at the following picture and note in it for reference...

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/9292/315andfullstochastics.png

Again, this is just my observation based on the last 1 year data and didn't back-test beyond that. so beware

Basically my idea is to create system which requires watching market only for last 10mins everyday and do positional trading as im working.
Started thinking about this idea only after seeing 315 thread and thanks to SH for the same.

As you know, every system has its bad-time and I want to see the problems in this approach in realtime rather then backtesting...so just trying trading in the live market to see the problems with this approach and make improvemens.... :thumb:


Thanks,
...summasumma

 

[summasumma]

All stochs went up and still the market came down...
(32,9,1) = up
(21,9,1) = up
(15,3,1) = up

Based on stochs data, still holding MNF...
cmp: 4711

All three stoch are moving in = direction and not / or \ .... Lets see what happens tomorrow.

 

[summasumma]

(32,9,1) = up
(21,9,1) = up
(15,3,1) = down

Exited buy@4642 since the stochs are not in sync. 80 points loss :annoyed:

No position now.
Waiting for either parents to be together or the family to show one direction.

Comment on this trade:
Entered position with MNF since the 315 was in opposite side trade. Eventually 315 was correct :clapping:
Next time, might enter in NF to recover loss if the stochs gives strong signal based on the rules.

This trade does gave opportunity to exit in profit. but its always easy to say once the trade is complete.
So Looks like better exit our position when the stochs are giving = movement based on last day's comment:
'All three stoch are moving in = direction and not / or \ .... Lets see what happens tomorrow.'...
Point taken....Lets see in the future if it helps or not in the similar situation.

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Summa,

No Revenge Trade to recoup the loss.....Entry in NF only, If Money Management Rules permit..!!!

SG

Next time, might enter in NF to recover loss if the stochs gives strong signal based on the rules.

 

[summasumma]

Hi Summa,

No Revenge Trade to recoup the loss.....Entry in NF only, If Money Management Rules permit..!!!

SG

Wise words, agreed. Thanks SG.

Btwn, today i had time to do intraday and got nice profit in the last down move with the help of similar stochastics setup... recovered the positional trade loss though its not revenge trade

 

[summasumma]

2nd jan 2012 update:
(32,9,1) = up
(21,9,1) = up
(15,3,1) = up

Didn't enter any trade as the (15,3,1) change in signal is not felt strong enough(just 1 point up) and also 315ema both lines went down.