Market Upside Is Ahead

[NiftyFantasy]

Nope.... if we reverts exactly from these levels then 6600-6800 kind of levels within feb....for sure..

If 5000 happens, it will happen within January.

If 7000 happens, most likely March or later. The move up will not be without hiccups.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Seems that all above posters are on a huge long position....and waiting for a miracle...

Well, I have been long for decades. No secret except I never declared this before.

However, this thread was opened to understand the whys of current crash because while there are dime a dozen predictions, there is hardly any intelligent speculation as to the reasons.

Inflation does not seem to cut it. If rate hikes are going to slow down India's economy by even 1%, that will probably imply 5-6% cumulative reduction over next 5 years. That does not warrant a 10% correction with no bottom. And that's hardly a reason to move money out from 7% growth economy to 3% growth economy (compared to 8% and 2% last year).

But I was always weak in Math, so you never know... What do you think about the impact to numbers (growth as well as markets) if a rate hike does happen?

 

[NiftyFantasy]

If this fall is due to FIIs stocks reshuffle then we can see new highs shortly...otherwise we will have to wait for some more time...I personally think that this is just the reshuffle....nothing else..they are exiting from auto/banks and will shift to some other sector very shortly...

Well, I have been long for decades. No secret except I never declared this before.

However, this thread was opened to understand the whys of current crash because while there are dime a dozen predictions, there is hardly any intelligent speculation as to the reasons.

Inflation does not seem to cut it. If rate hikes are going to slow down India's economy by even 1%, that will probably imply 5-6% cumulative reduction over next 5 years. That does not warrant a 10% correction with no bottom. And that's hardly a reason to move money out from 7% growth economy to 3% growth economy (compared to 8% and 2% last year).

But I was always weak in Math, so you never know... What do you think about the impact to numbers (growth as well as markets) if a rate hike does happen?

 

[aniket_tyagi]

Well, I have been long for decades. No secret except I never declared this before.

However, this thread was opened to understand the whys of current crash because while there are dime a dozen predictions, there is hardly any intelligent speculation as to the reasons.

Inflation does not seem to cut it. If rate hikes are going to slow down India's economy by even 1%, that will probably imply 5-6% cumulative reduction over next 5 years. That does not warrant a 10% correction with no bottom. And that's hardly a reason to move money out from 7% growth economy to 3% growth economy (compared to 8% and 2% last year).

But I was always weak in Math, so you never know... What do you think about the impact to numbers (growth as well as markets) if a rate hike does happen?

:thumb: for the highlighted part.
That's just weird, this fall.
Maybe some insider information, which is not with us.

 

[Romeo and Elliott]

I think we all are being told what the market is doing, Baba Shri Shri Price is giving us the answers to life and everything in the universe.

ie. I hold no opinion, it just makes it very very hard to trade if it goes against mine. So hmmm.. broke supports.. tested before breaking.. bounced on it ... ok *shrug* .. short it is. 2morrow should it gap up 300 points on a flat bottom candle and start rallying up ill shrug n .. wait (uncharacterstic move = wait).

The question of where its going from here should have a time-frame, will it froever go down ? No, Forever go up ? No.

Poor Mr Market has just two degrees of freedom, up and down (when its moving. At rest, its at rest), pls dont take that from the poor fellow.

What the FIIs will do, could do, should do, would do, normally do etc.. is speculation and am sure no one bets their money on it, at least not in a sustained profitable manner (inside information not withstanding)

I sincerely hope NIFTY touches 8000 in a month and Sensex goes to 80000 but for now, ill just follow Baba Price *bows.. pranam baba, aap kabhi jhooth nahi bolte*

.... *Baba steps down for a bit.... deciples just follow him where he goes, unquestioningly... * [no Curtains, this show just goes on]

 

[sanjosedesi]

I have seen big banks creating this kind of pressure in US during late 2008, where McCain (and Obama) rushed back from campaign for essentially a photo op and W (Bush 2) and gang initiated TARP operations. While TARP etc., were needed, the pressure was created to give a sense of falling sky and over-ride any opposition.

Now people are worried about inflation, and RBI is going to increase rates to fix this. The people who do not want higher rates are creating this drama to show we are under heavy distress and rate increase will make it worse. As soon as RBI gives in (or announces), things will be back on track. Number 1, uncertainty will be out. Number 2, they will probably shave off a few basis points from what RBI wanted to do.

So the markets were able to scare the RBI into increasing the rates by 0.25 rather than 0.50 ... I know the consensus yesterday was 0.25, but the consensus has been well built over the last 3 weeks.