Live Trading Calls by seniors.

[VJAY]

Dear Vijay,

What do you mean by BAR reply?

I use ami for my charts ...in ami there is BAR REPLAY option ...in which am take backtests manualy...like live trades...

 

[VJAY]

Blitzz, let's first clear a misconception, and it is very common. I will even say this misconception is a cop out for failures. But, you needed to mention it in order to address the first problem.

The big players do not manipulate the market. If they did, then the little players, like me, could not make money consistently. What Warren Buffet or Bill Gates is invested in has nothing to do with the 1 or 2 lots we might put on a trade.
Every once in awhile, there is talk about the most recent position they had taken, and right off the bat, it goes against them. This is a key point: The reason they get super rich off the markets is not because of manipulative know-how, but because of the very small position size they have versus total capital in their trading portfolio. They don't have time to manage and labor over their positions like you and I do. I would even venture a safe guess we have people in this forum that are much better than they are in forecasting the markets.
It's the specialty you want to consider. Theirs is the fact they put a relatively small amount of money on each trade with respect to the total in their portfolio. Then the market moves slightly in their favor, then they take it out for millions in gains.
Here's a sneaky little secret. You and I have the wherewithal to trade exactly the same way they do. The difference is we do not have the capital to make for any appreciable gains.
Here's the perspective from my forex point of view. I could put a mini lot on one trade against $100,000 in the account with no stop, go on vacation, and come back 2 weeks from now and never have to worry about bankrupting my account. The trade has to go against me 100,000 pips to do that. Because I am just a small fry, I could end up with a 50-pip gain, eventually, and make $50 on the position. That is hardly worth the while.
Now, let's look at some deeper pockets, and see if it is worthwhile. Let's take the same position size in retrospect to total capital, but we'll say the account has $100,000,000 in it (If I had to guess, I would say Buffet and Gates has more than that they using for trading.). That some 50-pip gain would yield a winning trade of $50,000.

With regards to the second part of your query, I would and do all the time share my methodology. I know for a fact that no one can completely replicate it in their everyday trading, so I am not ashamed. Click on my thread and you will see it being displayed in charts and thorough explanations.
In order to make consistent profits, you have to develop the methodology in order for it to be catered exactly to your personality and to who you are, which is not as tough as it seems. Developing a methodology is actually the easy part. Proper margining and the mental aspect enters into trading.

With your experience, Blitzz, that you have to this point, you could look at a chart and give a conceptual idea of where the market is headed, but things change when a trade is entered with live money.
This is where experience is needed. You gain the experience by first proving on a demo account that you have a winning methodology. Once you have done that, then real confidence begins to grow.
Next, you stay within your humble confines, but it would be time to go live. The key is to start conservatively. The only goal you should have have is on your first month you have a dollar more than what you started with (No joke!). Start with very conservative margining practices. If you start stringing together a few winning trades, you won't notice the money you made. You will feel good just because you got winning trades. How do I know that? I work with people all the time behind the scenes.

Start by experimenting with some indicators that you like. Read the many threads from the seasoned traders on this forum. Ask questions.
I enjoy talking about indicators of all sorts. I know how similar they are along with the properties associated with them. You can even take your thread to post your findings. Word gets out, and people will be here offer their input.
Here's another key. Believe no one, me included. Take all comments in this forum as constructive, then in your own time, view the charts through the advice you were given, then make your own decisions. If they conflict with what you were told, then post your findings. Anyone that really knows what they are talking about will not mind being challenged or questioned.

There are few absolutes in the developmental process in your journey, and they are posted below. OTT, trading is personal. Find your niche or specialty, and then begin your climb through the profitable world of trading. Here's the absolutes in order:
1. Develop a methodology.
2. Develop sound money management principles.
3. Develop mental discipline.

The latter covers a more larger and involved area, but take it step-by-step.

Also remember, if it takes 10 years to develop yourself as a winner, you will have the rest of your life to reap the rewards.

another GEM post by paul........you realy great paul.....thanks for sharing.....

 

[Blitzz]

Blitzz, let's first clear a misconception, and it is very common. I will even say this misconception is a cop out for failures. But, you needed to mention it in order to address the first problem.

The big players do not manipulate the market. If they did, then the little players, like me, could not make money consistently. What Warren Buffet or Bill Gates is invested in has nothing to do with the 1 or 2 lots we might put on a trade.
Every once in awhile, there is talk about the most recent position they had taken, and right off the bat, it goes against them. This is a key point: The reason they get super rich off the markets is not because of manipulative know-how, but because of the very small position size they have versus total capital in their trading portfolio. They don't have time to manage and labor over their positions like you and I do. I would even venture a safe guess we have people in this forum that are much better than they are in forecasting the markets.
It's the specialty you want to consider. Theirs is the fact they put a relatively small amount of money on each trade with respect to the total in their portfolio. Then the market moves slightly in their favor, then they take it out for millions in gains.
Here's a sneaky little secret. You and I have the wherewithal to trade exactly the same way they do. The difference is we do not have the capital to make for any appreciable gains.
Here's the perspective from my forex point of view. I could put a mini lot on one trade against $100,000 in the account with no stop, go on vacation, and come back 2 weeks from now and never have to worry about bankrupting my account. The trade has to go against me 100,000 pips to do that. Because I am just a small fry, I could end up with a 50-pip gain, eventually, and make $50 on the position. That is hardly worth the while.
Now, let's look at some deeper pockets, and see if it is worthwhile. Let's take the same position size in retrospect to total capital, but we'll say the account has $100,000,000 in it (If I had to guess, I would say Buffet and Gates has more than that they using for trading.). That some 50-pip gain would yield a winning trade of $50,000.

With regards to the second part of your query, I would and do all the time share my methodology. I know for a fact that no one can completely replicate it in their everyday trading, so I am not ashamed. Click on my thread and you will see it being displayed in charts and thorough explanations.
In order to make consistent profits, you have to develop the methodology in order for it to be catered exactly to your personality and to who you are, which is not as tough as it seems. Developing a methodology is actually the easy part. Proper margining and the mental aspect enters into trading.

With your experience, Blitzz, that you have to this point, you could look at a chart and give a conceptual idea of where the market is headed, but things change when a trade is entered with live money.
This is where experience is needed. You gain the experience by first proving on a demo account that you have a winning methodology. Once you have done that, then real confidence begins to grow.
Next, you stay within your humble confines, but it would be time to go live. The key is to start conservatively. The only goal you should have have is on your first month you have a dollar more than what you started with (No joke!). Start with very conservative margining practices. If you start stringing together a few winning trades, you won't notice the money you made. You will feel good just because you got winning trades. How do I know that? I work with people all the time behind the scenes.

Start by experimenting with some indicators that you like. Read the many threads from the seasoned traders on this forum. Ask questions.
I enjoy talking about indicators of all sorts. I know how similar they are along with the properties associated with them. You can even take your thread to post your findings. Word gets out, and people will be here offer their input.
Here's another key. Believe no one, me included. Take all comments in this forum as constructive, then in your own time, view the charts through the advice you were given, then make your own decisions. If they conflict with what you were told, then post your findings. Anyone that really knows what they are talking about will not mind being challenged or questioned.

There are few absolutes in the developmental process in your journey, and they are posted below. OTT, trading is personal. Find your niche or specialty, and then begin your climb through the profitable world of trading. Here's the absolutes in order:
1. Develop a methodology.
2. Develop sound money management principles.
3. Develop mental discipline.

The latter covers a more larger and involved area, but take it step-by-step.

Also remember, if it takes 10 years to develop yourself as a winner, you will have the rest of your life to reap the rewards.

Great post!! Thanks for helping. It was a real eye opener.

 

[Blitzz]

I use ami for my charts ...in ami there is BAR REPLAY option ...in which am take backtests manualy...like live trades...

Wow. Bar replay would be good to use.I have amibroker. But i dont know how to get data into it. Where can i get historical intraday data? Can anyone help in this regards.

Also can anyone give Historical intraday data for gold and silver.

 

[greenhorntrader]

Thanks Paul ,
Your post is helpful for many new and wannabe traders like me

 

[ValueZone]

Dear Seniors,

I am having serious doubts about whether i should continue trading or not.Rather i am thinking that its near to impossible to make money in this market. Only big players who can manipulate the market are able to make consistent money

Can some senior explain what does it take to make consistent profits? Does it come with experience. I know hard work is required but i cant get it what kind of hard work is required. I am not saying that you share your methodology with me but can someone give me some guidelines which shows me the path i need to take.

Blitzz

hi

every trader has gone through the phase u describe weather they came out winners or not is another story.

I suggest u to stick to and learn simple basic methods like support resistance. From my experience I recommend u to learn Market Profile/Auction Market theory. But the developer of MP has said recently that markets have changed Market profile is a legacy methodology as presented by him. But I suggest to learn it because it helps u to understand the market structure, which is the key in one's success. Once you have a grasp of Market profile, u can develop winning strategies based on the concepts. I have done it.

 

[Smart_trade]

Good post Paul, you nailed it so well.....

In addition to the points mentioned by you , I will add the following which is essential for making it as a great trader :

1) Passion for the markets : success in trading is not easy.....it is path with plenty of hurdles, difficulties....but if you have passion , you will enjoy the process....I have not seen any good trader who is not passionate about the markets...

2) Learning : Learn as much as you can about your methodology. If you are a TA trader, learn the basics like Dow Theory, Eliott, Oscillators, trendlines,Trends, timeframes.....there is no shortcut to success....I may use a simple MA for my trades but the way I trade with all the knowledge is totally different from a person who is not trained in the above subjects.

3) Method : Design a method which suits your mindset...no two indivisuals are similar...so my mindset is different from yours and you will never be comfortable trading my methods because they are made as per my mindset, beliefs and comfort level. Backtest the methods so that your subconcious mind is totally at rest and you KNOW that you you are going to make money come what may.....

4) Capitalisation and MM : This is more important area than the method, entry and exits.....this really is the key to trading success......

5) Adaptability : Markets change and you have to continuously get the new inputs and incorporate in your trading......this is the reason the black box systems fail in the markets.....adaptability is the biggest quality of all good traders.

6) Take the responsibility : Accept that you alone are responsible for all the good and bad trades...dont blame your broker, spouce, in-laws,FIIS, market operators, company circle etc for the bad trades....

Just my 2 cents....

Smart_trade

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks everyone!

Smartrader, you are right! It's amazing. You can give the basic tools, and then let your mind go just through personal reflection, and bring much more to the party as far as needful things for the trader.

Let me add something to the point #1. This passion has to transcend money or the desire for it. As a newbie there has to be something about the markets themselves that attracts you to it. This could mean anything-- chart reading, news that revolves around the markets, desire to follow them in lieu of other things that are going on in the personal life, etc etc.

If it is just the money you have a passion for, then this job will get old in a hurry. No matter what our personal persuasions are, we all have a need for money, and a desire for lots of it. If it is only the money you have a passion for, then go find another job. This job is too stressful for just money. Yet, it is a lot of fun when a hobby, or desire to share is involved.

My personal passion when I started was my love for charts, numbers, and mathematics. Now my passion has added to it by simply viewing a chart forecasting the way price action will go, then sitting back and watching it evolve. There's an intrigue when it feels like I am holding a crystal ball when looking at my charts.
Oh yeah, I should mention I trade based on what I see, but that is only that money part. That is the part that is work. I gett that buy or sell button pushed, collect my pips, then go back to my passion.

Ahh...same thoughts when I started here and gone for several methods ...jumping one by another....stopped trading after loss many......but again came ....unable to away from market ..like some addiction ......you need to stick with any one method ....backtest it with bar reply etc....gain confidence in any one method......more than that trade with small money with proper MM.....sure you can make money ......but not go for big .....in this way you may met many emotions things...which need to overcome.in trading ..you can do it only from your trades....never overcome it from reading anything...........you can look my thread....how am developing it....still far away...but am now in confidence....

Hello Blitzz

I do not really know the answers to your question. Currently i am making some money from my trading, but we can't call a sample size of one as statically significant

Taking a break from active trading to figure out what you need to do is an excellent idea. Give yourself time, no pressure, maybe something will open up inside you. May be you can have a re-look at your expectations from trading, start with expectation management.

As a first step I would look at my expectations from trading. From my experience there are 2 problems, one is under capitalization (which results in higher expectation), second is inability to accept the actual win / loss ratio of the system we are trading.

A simple trend following system will have a win/loss ratio of less than 40% add a few mistakes (even say efficiency of 80%), accepting a system with just 30% winners is a big problem, this keeps us in a mode of always trying to beat our system, not good for consistency of execution.

Our benchmark should be our current performance. Don't look at what others are able to achieve, start from where you are and try doing a bit better every month/quarter.

Hope you find out what you need to do.

Best Wishes

Good post Paul, you nailed it so well.....

In addition to the points mentioned by you , I will add the following which is essential for making it as a great trader :

1) Passion for the markets : success in trading is not easy.....it is path with plenty of hurdles, difficulties....but if you have passion , you will enjoy the process....I have not seen any good trader who is not passionate about the markets...

2) Learning : Learn as much as you can about your methodology. If you are a TA trader, learn the basics like Dow Theory, Eliott, Oscillators, trendlines,Trends, timeframes.....there is no shortcut to success....I may use a simple MA for my trades but the way I trade with all the knowledge is totally different from a person who is not trained in the above subjects.

3) Method : Design a method which suits your mindset...no two indivisuals are similar...so my mindset is different from yours and you will never be comfortable trading my methods because they are made as per my mindset, beliefs and comfort level. Backtest the methods so that your subconcious mind is totally at rest and you KNOW that you you are going to make money come what may.....

4) Capitalisation and MM : This is more important area than the method, entry and exits.....this really is the key to trading success......

5) Adaptability : Markets change and you have to continuously get the new inputs and incorporate in your trading......this is the reason the black box systems fail in the markets.....adaptability is the biggest quality of all good traders.

6) Take the responsibility : Accept that you alone are responsible for all the good and bad trades...dont blame your broker, spouce, in-laws,FIIS, market operators, company circle etc for the bad trades....

Just my 2 cents....

Smart_trade

 

[Blitzz]

Good post Paul, you nailed it so well.....

In addition to the points mentioned by you , I will add the following which is essential for making it as a great trader :

1) Passion for the markets : success in trading is not easy.....it is path with plenty of hurdles, difficulties....but if you have passion , you will enjoy the process....I have not seen any good trader who is not passionate about the markets...

2) Learning : Learn as much as you can about your methodology. If you are a TA trader, learn the basics like Dow Theory, Eliott, Oscillators, trendlines,Trends, timeframes.....there is no shortcut to success....I may use a simple MA for my trades but the way I trade with all the knowledge is totally different from a person who is not trained in the above subjects.

3) Method : Design a method which suits your mindset...no two indivisuals are similar...so my mindset is different from yours and you will never be comfortable trading my methods because they are made as per my mindset, beliefs and comfort level. Backtest the methods so that your subconcious mind is totally at rest and you KNOW that you you are going to make money come what may.....

4) Capitalisation and MM : This is more important area than the method, entry and exits.....this really is the key to trading success......

5) Adaptability : Markets change and you have to continuously get the new inputs and incorporate in your trading......this is the reason the black box systems fail in the markets.....adaptability is the biggest quality of all good traders.

6) Take the responsibility : Accept that you alone are responsible for all the good and bad trades...dont blame your broker, spouce, in-laws,FIIS, market operators, company circle etc for the bad trades....

Just my 2 cents....

Smart_trade

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